Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Do No Harm* | canceled | 0.50 |
| Animal Practice* | canceled | 0.66 |
| Smash |  |
0.75 |
| The New Normal |  |
0.78 |
| 1600 Penn | |
0.81 |
| Guys With Kids | |
0.83 |
| Whitney | |
0.89 |
| Deception | |
0.90 |
| Go On |  |
0.90 |
| 30 Rock* | final season complete | 0.93 |
| Parenthood* |  |
1.08 |
| Parks & Recreation | |
1.16 |
| Law & Order: SVU | |
1.17 |
| Community | |
1.18 |
| The Office | final season | 1.31 |
| Chicago Fire | |
1.34 |
| Up All Night | |
pending |
| Grimm (F) | |
pending |
| Revolution | |
pending |
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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.
The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.
My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013 - - certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.
Oops. Made a mistake on Friday at 8:00 (NEW) Donor Party (canceled)//Grimm
@ SF Guy
Smash costs way more money in production costs than The New Normal. Smash has tanked since it’s lead in after The Voice last year. That should have been cancelled by NBC and they should have kept Harry’s Law.
The New Normal is the only new show I watch on all the networks. It has a great cast and mark my word Ellen Barkin will get an Emmy nomination for Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.
NBC is in trouble big time. They can’t cancel every show they have. Giving TNN more time is what the network needs—put it on Thursday nights at 8:30 or 9:30 either after Community or Parks & Rec.
SF Guy
Posted February 13, 2013 at 11:32 AM
Yes, that New Normal is one of the LOWEST and WORST show ever on TV. Most of all, actings are horrible. How did they get a chance to be on TV with that lousy acting skills??? Totally agree that is it “certain to be cancelled”. Just still do not get it, why not just cancel it. The Smash had much higher ratings on that time slot than the New Normal. basically it is the second lowest on NBC.. and you do not want to take a chance by put tht show after the VOice as other shows will have MUCH higher ratings. Up All NIght is very good show with very talented actors. That should be follow by “go On” on Tuesday. Just cancel the New Normal so I can watch NBC shos on Tuesday.
NBC is running out of options. They have not choice but to leave Community on the air. http://www.bestcomedyshows.net
Prediction
Sunday
SNF (duh)
Monday
The Voice
Believe (new)
Tuesday
The Voice
Hatfield & McCoy (new)
Parenthood
Wednesday
Law & Order: SVU (final)
Ironside (new)
Chicago Fire
Thursday
Community (final)/Whitney
Parks & Rec.
Go On
MJF (new)
Revolution
Friday
Grimm
Dracula (new)
Dateline
Midseason:
Rock Center
The Biggest Loser
Betty White
After Hours
Donor Party
Joe & Joe & Jane
@Dakota Really good schedule, although I do think that there should be another comedy hour somewhere in the week (Tues @ 9:00, Wed @ 8:00, or Fri @ 8:00)
I think for syndication purposes Whitney should get a full season. I would save Dracula for midseason, move Grimm to 9 and air Whitney and a New Comedy on Friday at 8. I agree with @HV that more comedy is needed. Maybe moving Hatfield & McCoy to Sunday once football is over to create a comedy block after the second cycle of the Voice.
@Dakota, besides adding more comedy time, EXCELLENT schedule
Yeah I think that Dakota’s schedule is great other than the comedy issue.
@Ben I really think that Whitney needs to be canceled though. I am still watching the show, but it is nowhere near season one level.
Doesn’t seem like a good schedule to me.
Sex Crimes at 8? Really?
MJF at 9:30 after Goon? How does that make any sense, unless you’re expecting Goon to outrate MJF?
Only launching a single new comedy in the Fall? Should NBC be content with getting ~1.0 from Community and Goon?
Networks look after good numbers, and NBC got theirs with The Voice + Go On + The New Normal. It would be stupid if they let them go. This combination granted them the #1 place in many years. Why would they get rid of it? In a time when cable channels can almost talk face-to-face to network TV, it doesn’t matter where you have a 2.0 or a 3.0, all that matters is to take the lead spot. And NBC has the possibility to do it next fall too if they keep Go On and The New Normal.
@HV
Some of the shows that I say should be renewed is not because of the quality of the show, it’s the ratings, syndication value and overall profit generated. Whitney, although I dislike the show, should be renewed because after 4-5 seasons… Or by fall 2014, it could be in syndication and making money for NBC. If TV execs were basing their decisions on quality of shows, Whitney would be cancelled.
@Ben Yes, but if Whitney is canceled it leaves another slot for a new show that could (and likely would) get better ratings than Whitney.
Where is NBC’s Spring schedule?
Wonder what will take Guys With Kids’ slot on March 6 now UAN is dead.
@Oliver
“Save Me” could. It’s not on the schedule yet.
@HV
“Save Me” could. It’s not on the schedule yet.
NBC stopped production on Save Me after two episodes.
That was temporary, Save Me’s production resumed weeks ago.
It’s not a great timeslot or a good fit with Whitney. Still, I guess they could do that, double pump the remaining episodes once Whitney concludes and then air repeats of Off Their Rockers through May.
…or I guess they could extend Whitney’s order again to make it stretch until May.
Here’s an idea! “Save Me” Wednesdays @ 8:30 Mar.6-Apr.3. Then, Apr. 10-May 1, “Save Me” Wednesdays @ 8:00 (two episodes). Then, starting the next week, “Hannibal” airs both on Thursdays at 10:00 and Wednesdays at 8:00 until it finishes season 1 (May 30?) It’s not the best idea to put a horror series at 8:00, but it fills up schedule gaps and causes “Hannibal” to not go into June.
Community certain to be renewed? I hope that was TVBTN’s early April Fool’s Day joke for all of us. The show is over. Dan Harmon was the heart and soul of the show, and to be honest, without him overseeing things, fans of the show will be/are turning away in droves.
no mention of The New Normal Why?