NBC: 'Community' Starts As Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.75
The New Normal :oops: 0.78
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Guys With Kids :cry: :cry: 0.83
Whitney :cry: :cry: 0.89
Deception :oops: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Community :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.18
The Office final season 1.31
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Up All Night :cry: :cry: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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Surprising most of our polled readers, a Dan Harmon-less Community returned to NBC's schedule with a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating last week. That's plenty good enough to be "certain to be renewed" on the ratings basket case that is NBC. Would a ratings decline cause that prediction to be adjusted downward? It could. Stay tuned.

The other end of the NBC ratings spectrum is both woeful and crowded. Ratings are so pitiful that only shows that have hit a 1.1 rating (1600 Penn, Deception) have been moved to "certain to be canceled". Those that have hit a 1.2 rating (Whitney, Smash, Guys With Kids) are just "likely to be canceled". And those that have held at a 1.3 (Go On) or above are still "toss ups". Even so, the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings means that some of those shows probably have brighter futures than I am predicting at this point. NBC's scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.

My "don't update until the ratings arrive" posture has me holding Up All Night at "likely canceled", but the Applegate departure last week could certainly have the reasonable think its cancellation is certain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bestcomedyshows.net

    NBC is running out of options. They have not choice but to leave Community on the air. http://www.bestcomedyshows.net

  • Dakota

    Prediction

    Sunday
    SNF (duh)

    Monday
    The Voice
    Believe (new)

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    Hatfield & McCoy (new)
    Parenthood

    Wednesday
    Law & Order: SVU (final)
    Ironside (new)
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community (final)/Whitney
    Parks & Rec.
    Go On
    MJF (new)
    Revolution

    Friday
    Grimm
    Dracula (new)
    Dateline

    Midseason:
    Rock Center
    The Biggest Loser
    Betty White
    After Hours
    Donor Party
    Joe & Joe & Jane

  • HV

    @Dakota Really good schedule, although I do think that there should be another comedy hour somewhere in the week (Tues @ 9:00, Wed @ 8:00, or Fri @ 8:00)

  • Ben

    I think for syndication purposes Whitney should get a full season. I would save Dracula for midseason, move Grimm to 9 and air Whitney and a New Comedy on Friday at 8. I agree with @HV that more comedy is needed. Maybe moving Hatfield & McCoy to Sunday once football is over to create a comedy block after the second cycle of the Voice.

  • Ben

    @Dakota, besides adding more comedy time, EXCELLENT schedule

  • HV

    Yeah I think that Dakota’s schedule is great other than the comedy issue.
    @Ben I really think that Whitney needs to be canceled though. I am still watching the show, but it is nowhere near season one level.

  • Oliver

    Doesn’t seem like a good schedule to me.

    Sex Crimes at 8? Really?

    MJF at 9:30 after Goon? How does that make any sense, unless you’re expecting Goon to outrate MJF?

    Only launching a single new comedy in the Fall? Should NBC be content with getting ~1.0 from Community and Goon?

  • Charlie

    Networks look after good numbers, and NBC got theirs with The Voice + Go On + The New Normal. It would be stupid if they let them go. This combination granted them the #1 place in many years. Why would they get rid of it? In a time when cable channels can almost talk face-to-face to network TV, it doesn’t matter where you have a 2.0 or a 3.0, all that matters is to take the lead spot. And NBC has the possibility to do it next fall too if they keep Go On and The New Normal.

  • Ben

    @HV
    Some of the shows that I say should be renewed is not because of the quality of the show, it’s the ratings, syndication value and overall profit generated. Whitney, although I dislike the show, should be renewed because after 4-5 seasons… Or by fall 2014, it could be in syndication and making money for NBC. If TV execs were basing their decisions on quality of shows, Whitney would be cancelled.

  • HV

    @Ben Yes, but if Whitney is canceled it leaves another slot for a new show that could (and likely would) get better ratings than Whitney.

  • Oliver

    Where is NBC’s Spring schedule?

    Wonder what will take Guys With Kids’ slot on March 6 now UAN is dead.

  • HV

    @Oliver
    “Save Me” could. It’s not on the schedule yet.

  • Ultima

    @HV
    “Save Me” could. It’s not on the schedule yet.

    NBC stopped production on Save Me after two episodes.

  • Oliver

    That was temporary, Save Me’s production resumed weeks ago.

    It’s not a great timeslot or a good fit with Whitney. Still, I guess they could do that, double pump the remaining episodes once Whitney concludes and then air repeats of Off Their Rockers through May.

  • Oliver

    …or I guess they could extend Whitney’s order again to make it stretch until May.

  • HV

    Here’s an idea! “Save Me” Wednesdays @ 8:30 Mar.6-Apr.3. Then, Apr. 10-May 1, “Save Me” Wednesdays @ 8:00 (two episodes). Then, starting the next week, “Hannibal” airs both on Thursdays at 10:00 and Wednesdays at 8:00 until it finishes season 1 (May 30?) It’s not the best idea to put a horror series at 8:00, but it fills up schedule gaps and causes “Hannibal” to not go into June.

  • Mike

    Community certain to be renewed? I hope that was TVBTN’s early April Fool’s Day joke for all of us. The show is over. Dan Harmon was the heart and soul of the show, and to be honest, without him overseeing things, fans of the show will be/are turning away in droves.

  • randy

    no mention of The New Normal Why?

  • Michael1

    Is it common for a show whose premiere was delayed until February to begin as “certain to be renewed?”

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