Bubble Watch: 'The Following' Downgraded, Remain Calm All Is Well? + Community' & 'Zero Hour'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 17th, 2013


It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).

One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.

Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the Fan Excuse Bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.

I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...

There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?)
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Following, The Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • John A

    Still cant believe Community got a 1.2 in week 2. What a flop Lol

  • Matthew Chapman

    @Robert You’ve got The Following as both likely renewal and on the bubble.

  • Sara

    The following is listed on both “on the bubble” and “likely renewal”. You are free to remove it from the first one :)

  • aleksander eide

    ahhh that sucks, the new normal is likely cancellation i want a second season so much

  • Cyrax86

    Poor Up All Night.

  • Dave

    Am I seeing right, or is Nikita in the likely renewal section? If so, then :D :D

  • Nikitafan

    happy for nikita

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Dave: your eyesight is fine!

  • hoki

    Nashville shouldn’t be certain renewal, it isn’t in better position than Revenge or Castle.

  • Dave

    I’m really curious to see what ABC will do to Nashville when it’s renewed. I doubt they’d keep it on Wednesday but would they move it to Sunday?

  • Shana

    Love Nikita… things definitely looking up.

  • Kate

    I think tonight will be telling for Revenge- will it bounce back and how much? Also, Castle and Nashville have been pretty neck and neck the last couple of weeks with Castle being a bit ahead. How long before Castle jumps to certain or Nashville goes to likely? (I’m a big Castle fan, so of course I’d like to see it move to certain!)

  • TVDxItachi

    Even though i enjoy the Following, i think Cults Pilot was much better and was actually much more original. Ive seen the Following concept to many times to count.

  • Shepherd

    I’m surprised that you didn’t somehow manage to work Nikita into the post title.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @hoki: based on ratings alone, they are all pretty much the same, and it’s a reasonable argument, particularly in the case of Castle. But both Castle & Nashville do have a small absolute ratings advantage over Revenge, and also the 10pm vs. 9pm advantage. Guess I’m a sucker for critically acclaimed newcomers that are holding their own in the golden hour of broadcast television (Thursdays at 10p) though for what it’s worth I haven’t watched any of those 3 shows.

  • Oliver

    Are Malibu Country and LMS equally likely to be cancelled at this point? LMS is getting better ratings.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I’m surprised that you didn’t somehow manage to work Nikita into the post title.

    I’m saving that for when I downgrade it back to on the bubble next week. Kidding! Maybe…

  • frank

    @Robert I know you don;t rate cable programs but if you had to take an educated guess on TNT’s Dallas how would you place it for a Season 3 renewal?

  • Austin Lauran

    True or false:

    The NBC execs should start picking up more dramas & sitcoms that were like the ones from the 1990’s?

    Viewers think high quality over high ratings is more important while the CBS, ABC, & NBC execs think the opposite (even though millions of people hate TBBT & TAAHM which have better ratings than every NBC sitcom). But what is more important?

  • Big Toe

    @frank There is a Renew/Cancel for cable.

    @Robert I think Up All Night should be a certain cancellation for sure!!!

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