It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).
One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.
Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.
I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...
There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Zero Hour | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Smash | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?) |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| Community | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Nikita | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| Arrow | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries, The | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Still cant believe Community got a 1.2 in week 2. What a flop Lol
@Robert You’ve got The Following as both likely renewal and on the bubble.
The following is listed on both “on the bubble” and “likely renewal”. You are free to remove it from the first one
ahhh that sucks, the new normal is likely cancellation i want a second season so much
Poor Up All Night.
Am I seeing right, or is Nikita in the likely renewal section? If so, then
happy for nikita
@Dave: your eyesight is fine!
Nashville shouldn’t be certain renewal, it isn’t in better position than Revenge or Castle.
I’m really curious to see what ABC will do to Nashville when it’s renewed. I doubt they’d keep it on Wednesday but would they move it to Sunday?
Love Nikita… things definitely looking up.
I think tonight will be telling for Revenge- will it bounce back and how much? Also, Castle and Nashville have been pretty neck and neck the last couple of weeks with Castle being a bit ahead. How long before Castle jumps to certain or Nashville goes to likely? (I’m a big Castle fan, so of course I’d like to see it move to certain!)
Even though i enjoy the Following, i think Cults Pilot was much better and was actually much more original. Ive seen the Following concept to many times to count.
I’m surprised that you didn’t somehow manage to work Nikita into the post title.
@hoki: based on ratings alone, they are all pretty much the same, and it’s a reasonable argument, particularly in the case of Castle. But both Castle & Nashville do have a small absolute ratings advantage over Revenge, and also the 10pm vs. 9pm advantage. Guess I’m a sucker for critically acclaimed newcomers that are holding their own in the golden hour of broadcast television (Thursdays at 10p) though for what it’s worth I haven’t watched any of those 3 shows.
Are Malibu Country and LMS equally likely to be cancelled at this point? LMS is getting better ratings.
I’m surprised that you didn’t somehow manage to work Nikita into the post title.
I’m saving that for when I downgrade it back to on the bubble next week. Kidding! Maybe…
@Robert I know you don;t rate cable programs but if you had to take an educated guess on TNT’s Dallas how would you place it for a Season 3 renewal?
True or false:
The NBC execs should start picking up more dramas & sitcoms that were like the ones from the 1990′s?
Viewers think high quality over high ratings is more important while the CBS, ABC, & NBC execs think the opposite (even though millions of people hate TBBT & TAAHM which have better ratings than every NBC sitcom). But what is more important?
@frank There is a Renew/Cancel for cable.
@Robert I think Up All Night should be a certain cancellation for sure!!!