It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).
One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.
Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.
I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...
There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Zero Hour | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Smash | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?) |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| Community | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Nikita | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| Arrow | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries, The | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Are Malibu Country and LMS equally likely to be cancelled at this point? LMS is getting better ratings.
Literally equally, no, Last Man Standing clearly has the ratings advantage, but for now I remain equally unsure of how ABC views those low-ish Friday ratings.
I really hope The Following gets renewed. If the Mindy Project is on likely renewed and the ratings aren’t great, TF deserves a chance. I’m hoping it’ll pick back up.
Grimm and Revolution really ought to be shifted… I’m just saying, 4 months off the air leaves us with no way of knowing how they’ll do for the rest of the season.
Good 90210 needs to die
90210 will get renewed for short season! Cw NEVER cancels a show s
after five seasons
@Robert I know you don;t rate cable programs but if you had to take an educated guess on TNT’s Dallas how would you place it for a Season 3 renewal?
Fortunately for me, I don’t have to make an educated guess. Call me a chicken if it makes you feel better!
And zero hour is by far the best new show on tv. Ratings could stay the same or hopefully go up a lil this season. To bad people dont wanna think while watching tv. If they did amd loved mysterys they would love zero hour
The Following going DOWN!
Abc should just keep zero hour. I mean cmon thursday at 7.no matter what show comes on next at that time and day will obviously get canceled too. And so on and so forth. Might as well just keep this great show we call ZERO HOUR!!!
I’m not worried for The Following returning. If Touch can come back with much lower ratings TF is a shoo in. I doubt there will be a total ratings collapse but if it did I’d say it started with the gay kiss that unnerved some viewers. Ironic that people get more upset over that than the violence.
I’m scared to death about how Revenge will perform tonight. I hope it goes back to its ratings before Grammys, Emmys and Super bowl. If it gets over 2.0 I’d be more relaxed. Tonight’s episode is the “huge event” of the season and if that doesn’t do well, I can’t see what else could.
Finally Nikita is on Likely renewal! YAY! Thought it will never end up there but hopefully it will get renewed because the past weeks have been great for Nikita compared to how Nikita started Off! Thank you!
@Robert ia a Chicken!
Nikita just has to be renewed
.
Why Whitney still on the bubble?And Go On not in likely cancellation as The New Normal?
Go On and The New Normal could be upgraded when The Voice returns but NBC would renew a show that only give decent ratings with a strong lead-in?
Why NBC didn’t protect both shows as they did with Revolution?
Because they know the show[Revolution] wouldn’t survive without The Voice.
Parenthood should take the tuesday 10pm timeslot for the entire season.It works for NBC,replaced with Smash was a bad,very bad idea.
And what about Revenge?Still likely renewal?Since the year started ratings have been dropping and yet have been downgraded.If doesn’t recover this sunday (even with The Walking Dead and the finale of Downtown Abbey competition) is certain cancellation in May.Suburgatory never should have been moved from its old timeslot.Every show premiered after Modern Family and then moved to another day is cancelled(i.e. Cougar Town,Apt. 23).ABC doesn’t know how to manage its schedule.
Shame for the following as its the best new show this season so just hope and pray it holds around the 2.4 mark and gets renewed
I think it is rather stupid to put a show with one episode at certian cancelation unless it performed like Do No Harm. Zero Hour needs at least a few more episodes to prove what it can do.
Nascar zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…..huh whu sorry,I fell asleep even thinking about it,3 hours of left turns,I’d rather watch that crap show Whitney.
I think both , Beauty & The Beast and Hart of Dixie will DIE.
90210 will be cancelled.
The Carrie Diaries & Nikita will survive.
But how is Nashville still certain renewal?