Bubble Watch: 'The Following' Downgraded, Remain Calm All Is Well? + Community' & 'Zero Hour'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 17th, 2013

It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).

One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.

Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.

I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...

There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made in Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben and Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys with Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?)
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Following, The Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon a Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season


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  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Are Malibu Country and LMS equally likely to be cancelled at this point? LMS is getting better ratings.

    Literally equally, no, Last Man Standing clearly has the ratings advantage, but for now I remain equally unsure of how ABC views those low-ish Friday ratings.

  • Ashley

    I really hope The Following gets renewed. If the Mindy Project is on likely renewed and the ratings aren’t great, TF deserves a chance. I’m hoping it’ll pick back up.

  • Eric_Philly

    Grimm and Revolution really ought to be shifted… I’m just saying, 4 months off the air leaves us with no way of knowing how they’ll do for the rest of the season.

  • feinn

    Good 90210 needs to die

  • Mark3

    90210 will get renewed for short season! Cw NEVER cancels a show s
    after five seasons

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Robert I know you don;t rate cable programs but if you had to take an educated guess on TNT’s Dallas how would you place it for a Season 3 renewal?

    Fortunately for me, I don’t have to make an educated guess. Call me a chicken if it makes you feel better!

  • Mark3

    And zero hour is by far the best new show on tv. Ratings could stay the same or hopefully go up a lil this season. To bad people dont wanna think while watching tv. If they did amd loved mysterys they would love zero hour

  • rob60990

    The Following going DOWN! :D

  • Mark3

    Abc should just keep zero hour. I mean cmon thursday at 7.no matter what show comes on next at that time and day will obviously get canceled too. And so on and so forth. Might as well just keep this great show we call ZERO HOUR!!!

  • Dan S

    I’m not worried for The Following returning. If Touch can come back with much lower ratings TF is a shoo in. I doubt there will be a total ratings collapse but if it did I’d say it started with the gay kiss that unnerved some viewers. Ironic that people get more upset over that than the violence.

  • Nerdbot

    I’m scared to death about how Revenge will perform tonight. I hope it goes back to its ratings before Grammys, Emmys and Super bowl. If it gets over 2.0 I’d be more relaxed. Tonight’s episode is the “huge event” of the season and if that doesn’t do well, I can’t see what else could.

  • James

    Finally Nikita is on Likely renewal! YAY! Thought it will never end up there but hopefully it will get renewed because the past weeks have been great for Nikita compared to how Nikita started Off! Thank you! :)

  • frank

    @Robert ia a Chicken!

  • Olka

    Nikita just has to be renewed :).

  • Douglas from Brazil

    Why Whitney still on the bubble?And Go On not in likely cancellation as The New Normal?

    Go On and The New Normal could be upgraded when The Voice returns but NBC would renew a show that only give decent ratings with a strong lead-in?
    Why NBC didn’t protect both shows as they did with Revolution?
    Because they know the show[Revolution] wouldn’t survive without The Voice.
    Parenthood should take the tuesday 10pm timeslot for the entire season.It works for NBC,replaced with Smash was a bad,very bad idea.
    And what about Revenge?Still likely renewal?Since the year started ratings have been dropping and yet have been downgraded.If doesn’t recover this sunday (even with The Walking Dead and the finale of Downtown Abbey competition) is certain cancellation in May.Suburgatory never should have been moved from its old timeslot.Every show premiered after Modern Family and then moved to another day is cancelled(i.e. Cougar Town,Apt. 23).ABC doesn’t know how to manage its schedule.

  • steve

    Shame for the following as its the best new show this season so just hope and pray it holds around the 2.4 mark and gets renewed

  • Scott

    I think it is rather stupid to put a show with one episode at certian cancelation unless it performed like Do No Harm. Zero Hour needs at least a few more episodes to prove what it can do.

  • The Steve Sanders

    Nascar zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…..huh whu sorry,I fell asleep even thinking about it,3 hours of left turns,I’d rather watch that crap show Whitney.

  • Nothin

    I think both , Beauty & The Beast and Hart of Dixie will DIE.
    90210 will be cancelled.
    The Carrie Diaries & Nikita will survive.

  • Mari

    But how is Nashville still certain renewal?

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