It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).
One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.
Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.
I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...
There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Zero Hour | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Smash | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?) |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Following, The | Fox | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | On The Bubble |
| Community | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Nikita | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| Arrow | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries, The | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Revenge should switch slots with Zero Hour, problem solved. Once Upon A Time would be a great lead-in, and it would get higher ratings.
Why is the following a bubble show? It’s one of the highest rated shows and builds from Bones + gave bones an increase in ratings? Surely it should at least be likely renewal?
90210 will go as will beauty and carrie. The CW needs new hits not below average shows..
I expect Revenge to either stabilize this week or go up slightly – say, a tenth. I don’t expect it to keep dropping other than the “spring effect”. And I expect it to be renewed.
As for The Following, I think it has some problems – an over-emphasis on the trio being one of the major ones – but all in all I think it will survive. The cast is good, the pace is good, the writing is OK. The gay stuff may negatively impact it with the general audience, however.
Zero Hour is doomed. The premise is too complicated and arcane for the general audience and the show’s pilot wasn’t quite compelling enough to sustain it given the premise. Neither is the cast.
I suspect The Cult will end up doomed for precisely the same reasons, although the cast for that show is better. The premise is equally confused.
Nice to see Nikita in “Likely Renewal”. Not that it will stop the Nikita haters from listing reasons why it won’t.
Carrie Diaries is doomed IMO.
The only reason CW questions are HoD and Beauty and the Beast. I don’t see the latter surviving the “spring drop”, but HoD is harder to predict.
Wait, that’s Kevin Bacon in that scene?! Holy crap!!
The following will survive. fox need to save face. Also they need friday show. bones, glee or the following is the only choicse. Touch was renew last year but flop bad. The following can be really best what fox has for fridays. Glee will collapse hard there and doubt that bones will be move.
Why is the following a bubble show? It’s one of the highest rated shows and builds from Bones + gave bones an increase in ratings? Surely it should at least be likely renewal?
As noted in the post, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which usually predicts what would happen if the season ended *now*, Bubble Watch is more forward looking. If the season ended today, The Following would not be a bubble show, it would be renewed.
But, the season doesn’t end today, and it is a show with falling ratings and as of yet, there is is no sign of that stopping. If it stabilizes where it is, it will ultimately be upgraded. If it keeps falling, it will ultimately be downgraded.
Why don’t you just put all the NBC comedies on the bubble or cancelation they all do about the same???
I hope Community gets a 5th and final season, like Fringe did
Im new to this, and Ive been a tv addict for my entire life! So please dont kill me with this comment.
I like both shows Nikita and BATB those are the only shows I watch in the CW, I stopped watching Arrow, but lately I’ve been leaning on watching BATB live than Nikita, because Im worried it can get cancelled being such a addictive kind of show I really prefer BATB.
But an old show (Nikita) going to their 3rd. season and has lower ratings than the new show (BATB) can get a new season? when they have lost so many fans is hard to get new fans when you are into those many seasons in, in the other hand, BATB is a new show they are building a really huge fanbase in house and internationally ala Twilight in a couple of months it will be huge, CW barely promotes the show and its very low budgeted as you can see while you watch. But has a lot of heart and soul. I just hope they dont cancel any of them, but if I have to choose I want them to stay with BATB I think it has more to grow and get more audience is a young show, they did that with HOD and Nikita, they didnt have the greatest ratings but they kept them…so Im hoping here!
Why did The New Normal get downgraded to likely cancellation? It only had one 1.1 rating and all the other episodes in 2013 ranged between a 1.2 and 1.4 rating. Until its new episode gets a 1.1 rating I’m looking at it as a bubble show.
Agreed on The New Normal. It’s ratings aren’t great, but neither are Go On’s. I know Go On rates a little higher than The New Normal, but it has also fallen much farther from its premiere ratings. I think they should both be on the bubble or both be likely cancellation. I don’t see the difference between the two.
Nikita has an uptick recently, 1 more season for syndication and good for Fridays next season. I say a renewal is in order.
As for The Following, unless it drops to below 2.0, As long as it keeps building on Bones, it WILL get renewed. FOX has no other dramas.
@Robert – Any chance Touch, Deception and Smash will downgrade to certain cancellation next week? Their numbers so far are horrible.
Vegas and CSI NY would be certain cancellation in my opinion but their ratings arent horrible enough generally to have them be in danger. But since their on CBS they will definitely be gone in May.
Elementary should be in the Certain renewal area
I am not surprised by the Nikita move, with syndication around the corner and adjusting for lower viewership on Friday. Who would have guessed when it pulled that 0.2 in the fall that it could hit a 0.5 ever again? I certainly didn’t expect that.
Touch should be certain cancellation. There is no finessing the numbers. It dropped from hour 1 to hour 2 last week and dropped even more this week. Barring some move by FOX to salvage the show by moving it away from Friday (odds of this happening somewhere in the vicinity of less than 1%), it is as dead as Up All Night.
Honestly, I think reality shows like Shark Tank and The Job should be put in here for fans because who really thinks Shark Tank isn’t getting renewed next year after it beat its own records. And, The Job scored terribly for CBS it will not get renewed. It’s not too hard to predict.
@Claudia – In this case Nikita would be renewed over BATB because of syndication factors. The main reason Nikita was renewed was because CW had already produced 2 full seasons. They have yet to cancel a series after just 2 or 3 full seasons and with 1 more left until syndication, Nikita has a chance. Also it does just as well on Fridays leading off the night as BATB does and while BATB may do slightly better, it lsoes a big chunk of it’s Vampire Diaries lead in. Thats what happened last season to the Secret Circle. It did better than Nikita, Hart of Dixie, Gossip Girl, even 90210 but it was expensive to produce and lost a big chunk of its VD lead in. Another thing to look at is that CW typically only renews 1 of its new fall shows. Since fall 2008 The CW has renewed (90210 from fall 2008, Vampire Diaries from fall 2009, Nikita from fall 2010, Hart of Dixie from fall 2011) They’ve already renewed breakout hit Arrow and as far as freshman series from this season they canceled Emily Owens and have BATB, Carrie Diaries and Cult to consider. Cult hasn’t premiered yet and Carrie Diaries is looking good for a renewal should it hold up. This puts BATB at an odd spot. I believe CW already would renew 2 of their 5 freshman dramas and if Cult is a hit BATB has no chance.
@Tom – New Normal is likely cancellation because of the downward spiral. With no Voice lead in, Go ON and New Normal have sunk like a lead balloon. While I believe Go On will benefit from The Voice as a lead in (and be renewed for next season) I cant say the same about The New Normal. NBC is at an odd position here. 2 veterans are done this season The Office and 30 Rock. With Parks and Recreation definitely returning, they have a number of other bubble shows none of which rate any higher than a 2.0
Up All Night, Whitney, Guys With Kids, Community, Go On, The New Normal and 1600 Penn.
1600 Penn and Guys With Kids are done one they finish their episode orders up, Up All Night has already finished its season and is now considered cancelled after it’s star left, and other series like Whitney and The New Normal are low rated but NBC may keep them anyway.
@Austin – Scripted shows are excluded but without a doubt, Shark Tank will return next season while The Job is cancelled by May.
@Jel – It helped that the series was moved from 9:00pm to 8:00pm Fridays and when renewed it will likely stay in that slot. I always said from the beginning since Nikita got a third season, it will get a fourth due to syndication. The uptick was good for CW and honestly what else would they put on Fridays?
Hawaii 5-0 should be certain renewal. CBS wont cancel it after 70 eps after there already is a syndication deal.
@Robert – Any chance Touch, Deception and Smash will downgrade to certain cancellation next week? Their numbers so far are horrible.
Vegas and CSI NY would be certain cancellation in my opinion but their ratings arent horrible enough generally to have them be in danger. But since their on CBS they will definitely be gone in May.
As ever, many of you split hairs between the designations in ways that I do not (and it’s also true I do some splitting of those hairs in ways you do not!).
It’s possible I’ll drop all of those shows down to certain cancellation at some point, but I’d guess Touch & Smash have the best chance of that happening next week. There’s definitely a case to be made that Deception is certain, but NBC is so awful, I’m not downgrading it unless it keeps dropping. Touch is certain to be cancelled but it got bumped up simply for Fridays, but it should’ve been downgraded this week. Unless CSI:NY/Vegas drop from where they are, I plan to keep them as likely cancellations rather than certain cancellations.
@robert
Why did The New Normal get downgraded to likely cancellation?