Bubble Watch: 'The Following' Downgraded, Remain Calm All Is Well? + Community' & 'Zero Hour'

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 17th, 2013


It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).

One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.

Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the Fan Excuse Bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.

I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...

There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?)
tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Following, The Fox On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

--

 
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
  • Matt

    EDIT: For my recent comment above I meant LMS and MC would be on “certain RENEWAL” not “certain cancellation”

  • samurai99

    Surprised to see Elementary downgraded when it was just at certain renewal last week.

    Question for everyone: does Blue Bloods already have a syndication deal planned? Because I have a hard time believing it will get one.

  • TVDude

    Regarding Community, I don’t think it was so much that it was Valentine’s day, but they aired a Halloween episode. Maybe that would have made no difference, I don’t know. Still, airing a Halloween episode on Valentine’s wasn’t really a good idea. Perhaps they were just trying to burn it off? Either way, I think it was the low point for the series, and I expect it to be slightly above average for most of the spring. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see, but that’s my prediction.

  • Mark3

    Zero hour! Zero hour! Zero hour! Amazing fun mystery!

  • Stan

    I just started watching The Neighbors on Hulu Plus, and the show is actually pretty good, and not as stupid as it looks. Really hope ABC renews it because I can see it being at least somewhat of a success.

  • Tom

    @ Kris “They (B&B) won a PCA for new TV drama for a reason!”

    Yes, we know. The reason is because the members of the Home Alone Club each voted for it ten thousand times.

  • BxActor

    Yeah Zero Hour can go right where Do No Harm went

  • Franko

    Seriously, Nashville as CERTAIN renewal? LOL I mean, I think it will get a pitty renewal ala “V” 2 years back, but a CERTAIN renewal?!

  • Charlie

    The New Normal retains what, 99% of Go On’s demo? You don’t find this kind of chemistry anymore. Both shows are certainly going up when The Voice returns, and both shows will stand the same chances of being renewed (which I bet they will). What killed these shows in mid-season was bad scheduling. Tuesdays are freshman killers because of NCIS, which take biggest piece of cake these days. Not to forget that ABC and FOX are airing comedies too. If were NBC I would put both GO and TNN on Wednesdays or Thursdays next year, also at an earlier time (when comedies like these do better). That is, unless they keep them after The Voice. After all, these got them to take the No1 spot last fall. What else do they need? In other words: they have two good products here. They just needs to grow at the appropriate pace.

  • Californiadgd

    LMS will be renewed 100%

  • Charlie

    I don’t understand why Nielsen keeps measuring 18-49 demos. That’s like saying “everyone”. In Europe, audience measurement companies divide targets much more specifically: 14-18, 18-35, 35-45, +45. Renewal/cancellation decisions are made upon 18-35 (because of their presumed income) with special attention to 14-18 (because they can influence parents). For instance, I bet stuff like TBBT, Glee or The New Normal have most of their audience between ages 14 and 35. Go On might have it around 25-45 and Betty White probably +40 (Just taking a guess based on the plots and stars of these shows, mixed with market experience of my own). My point kinda explains why Betty isn’t a good lead-in for Go On. But if your potato sack is 18-49 what you see is what you get. Hence, there’s no point in arguing that Go On can’t beat Betty’s demos. Of course they can’t. You bet everyone under 35 is looking different channels when Betty’s on and these people just never come back. Why would they? CBS, ABC and FOX are airing a much youth schedule simultaneously.

  • 01mossia

    Guys with Kids & Last Man Standing both NEED to be renewed.

  • Romina

    The CW should definitely give Beauty and the Beast another season!

  • Ted Craig
  • Lauren

    Beauty and the Beast just deserves a cancellation. -50% of the audience on the global and on the demo, it’s just laughable when The Vampire Diaries is your lead-in.

  • Sarah

    @Bill or Robert

    I know this is OT, but will there be any delays since it’s President’s Day?

  • rob60990

    There’s seriously people questioning why The New Normal is a likely cancellation?

  • JustMe

    Fox cannot keep a show in the old “24” 9pm mon slot. I like the following but I can see how it may be too gory for many.

  • Justin121

    The Good Wife
    The Carrie Diaries
    Hart of Dixie (certain)
    Community
    Go On
    Whitney

    Likely renewals.

    The Floppig
    Beauty and the Bear
    Zero Ratings

    To Cancelville :D

  • Charlie

    @Ted Craig: Thank you!

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures