It could be argued that The Following should've never been upgraded to likely renewal. It's been downgraded back to 'on the bubble." If you Google the phrase "remain calm all is well" you literally get Kevin Bacon as the top result. It's from the classic National Lampoon's Animal House (pictured above, video below).

One way or the other "remain calm, all is well" is good advice for fans of The Following to follow. Either in a real sense --if it stabilizes at around the 2.4 adults 18-49 rating, it will still certainly be renewed -- or in the Kevin Bacon-y 'Animal House' sense if it keeps dropping and dips down into the low 1.x ratings range.

Though Community premiered well last week, it still started on the bubble due to sparse data. In its second-week it fell 37% to a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating, and even though there's more data, and it wasn't "good", Community is still on the bubble. No need to get into the fan excuse bingo of "Valentine's Day" and post-premiere expectations. Right now, woeful as things are for NBC, a 1.2 adults 18-49 rating legitimately bubble show territory at NBC.

I've started Zero Hour at certain cancellation. Yes, there is only one data point, and yes it was Valentine's Day. But...

There are a few other minor tweaks versus last week that you can scrutinize at your leisure.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show	Network	Status
666 Park Avenue	ABC	Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23	ABC	Canceled
Last Resort	ABC	Canceled
Made In Jersey	CBS	Canceled
Partners	CBS	Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D.	CW	Canceled
Ben And Kate	Fox	Canceled
The Mob Doctor	Fox	Canceled
Animal Practice	NBC	Canceled
Do No Harm	NBC	Canceled
		tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour	ABC	Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn	NBC	Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids	NBC	Certain Cancellation
		tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings	ABC	Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY	CBS	Likely Cancellation
Vegas	CBS	Likely Cancellation
90210	CW	Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The	Fox	Likely Cancellation
Touch	Fox	Likely Cancellation
Deception	NBC	Likely Cancellation
The New Normal	NBC	Likely Cancellation
Smash	NBC	Likely Cancellation
Up All Night	NBC	Likely Cancellation (Or already canceled?)
		tvbythenumbers.com
Last Man Standing	ABC	On The Bubble
Malibu Country	ABC	On The Bubble
Following, The	Fox	On The Bubble
Good Wife, The	CBS	On The Bubble
Mentalist, The	CBS	On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement	CBS	On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The	CW	On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie	CW	On The Bubble
Beauty And The Beast	CW	On The Bubble
Community	NBC	On The Bubble
Go On	NBC	On The Bubble
Whitney	NBC	On The Bubble
		tvbythenumbers.com
Castle	ABC	Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The	ABC	Likely Renewal
Revenge	ABC	Likely Renewal
Suburgatory	ABC	Likely Renewal
Elementary	CBS	Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0	CBS	Likely Renewal
Nikita	CW	Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The	Fox	Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU	NBC	Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation	NBC	Likely Renewal
		tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy	ABC	Certain Renewal
Middle, The	ABC	Certain Renewal
Modern Family	ABC	Certain Renewal
Nashville	ABC	Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time	ABC	Certain Renewal
Scandal	ABC	Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls	CBS	Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods	CBS	Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds	CBS	Certain Renewal
CSI	CBS	Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly	CBS	Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles	CBS	Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest	CBS	Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men	CBS	Certain Renewal
Glee	Fox	Certain Renewal
New Girl	Fox	Certain Renewal
Raising Hope	Fox	Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire	NBC	Certain Renewal
Grimm	NBC	Certain Renewal
Parenthood	NBC	Certain Renewal
Revolution	NBC	Certain Renewal
		tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The	CBS	Renewed
How I Met Your Mother	CBS	Renewed
NCIS	CBS	Renewed
Arrow	CW	Renewed
Supernatural	CW	Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The	CW	Renewed
American Dad	Fox	Renewed
Bob's Burgers	Fox	Renewed
Bones	Fox	Renewed
Family Guy	Fox	Renewed
The Simpsons	Fox	Renewed
		tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice	ABC	Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl	CW	Final SeasonFinished
Fringe	Fox	Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock	NBC	Final Season Finished
The Office	NBC	Final Season

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