ABC: 'Zero Hour' Is Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :oops: 0.58
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Zero Hour :oops: 0.69
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.70
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.93
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.96
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.05

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the ABC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

That thud you heard on Thursday night was the 1.4 adults 18-49 rating for the premiere of Zero Hour, the Cancellation Bear's latest meal in ABC's Thursday 8pm timeslot. Enjoy it while you can, it's certain to be canceled.

Happy Endings has been downgraded to certain to be canceled. It didn't make the headline this week, but there's always next week!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ben

    @Fred
    The new drama after Grey’s is SHIELD in my schedule (I forgot to put it in). That slot would secure the show.

  • Fred

    @Ben,

    I have a feeling SHIELD will do well where ever ABC places it. But I think it might perform stronger on Sunday after a more family oriented/fantasy show like OUAT. I feel many fans of this genre (like me) couldn’t care less for the NFL or Awards shows. Yes its directly against The Walking Dead for many weeks, but this might be the show that will defy the odds.
    In the not too distant past Desperate Housewives performed quite well Sunday 9:00 against tough competition. ABC needs to take back the hour with the something strong.

  • Ben

    @Fred
    I love that idea. Very smart…

  • jerico

    I really hope Revenge viewership does not fall any lower, its barely managing 5 million viewers per episode now, compared to the 7-8 million average of last season. I really like this show and would hate to see it canceled. I think they should move it back to the 10 Pm slot on wednesday, it did better there than it is doing now.

  • Dima

    ABC schedule for next season:

    Monday
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars / The Bachelor
    10:00 – Castle

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars: Results/ The Taste
    9:00 – S.H.I.E.L.D
    10:00 – New Drama

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – Suburgatory\New Comedy
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – New Comedy\How To Live With Your Parents
    10:00 – Nashville

    Thursday
    8:00 – Grey’s Anatomy (Final Season)
    9:00 – Scandal
    10:00 – New Drama

    Friday
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    Sunday
    7:00 – America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 – Once Upon A Time
    9:00 – New Drama
    10:00 – Revenge

  • Rodney

    The only ABC show I actually like is Castle.

  • Fred

    @Jerico

    I agree, I’m trying to let everyone I know that gave up on REVENGE to catch up. The last few episodes have been improving and the latest ep was the best ep of the season.
    ABC would be foolish to cancel it. They will most likely move it.
    Back to Wednesday 10:00 would be a MUCH easier timeslot than Sunday 9:00.
    A new show (like SHIELD) after OUAT Sunday 9:00, might do the trick and help ABC get out of 4th place already.

    I think ABC should air a new show after OUAT on Sunday like SHIELD.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    omabin: “I think BOP is in a fairly unique situation for ABC. Rumor has it (I don’t know where the source is, and it could be false, but I have seen it in multiple commentaries) that it won some sort of award in California that translates into a tax benefit that makes the show about 30% cheaper to produce than the other shows.”

    That might make it cheaper when the ratings were higher. Since we don’t know the ACTUAL NUMBERS, it’s speculation. The fact that it was renewed may well have been due to the three episode up-tick to 2.0 at the end of last season PLUS any other factor we don’t know about for sure.

    “Also, the show has been selling internationally.”

    But we don’t know the revenue numbers. Most of the time the home market – the US – is far more important than overseas sales during first run, simply because the US market is MUCH bigger than any other country except China and India – certainly not the EU, and even less Britain.

    “seeing how BoP was renewed last year despite of its ratings, I think we need to take them into account, because if they were true last year, they might be true next year too.”

    That’s true, just like Nikita was true. The problem is the show has dropped back into pathetic ratings as anyone could have predicted. And the show doesn’t have the syndication potential Nikita has, both due to number of episodes or the star power in Asia of the lead.

    “The ratings probably can’t fall any further”

    Oh, yes, they can! :-) The improvements made to the show don’t offset the problems the show had in its first two season – most specifically the personality of the lead character which can charitably be described as a “beyatch”. The two medical examiners who provide the comic relief are the only two likeable characters on the show – and they can’t carry it. The only way the show improves is if they tone down the lead character’s personality and improve the action and drama.

    “but if they go back up when DWTS returns, I think there is a chance ABC sticks it to friday nights to get it to syndication.”

    DWTS might indeed improve the ratings IF BoP retains the lead-in. But will it improve all the way back up to a 2.0 from a 1.2? I doubt it.

    It can’t get to syndication because it’s way too low on number of episodes. At end of this season it only have 42 episodes in the can. That’s a full two seasons (44 episodes – plus two more episodes!) short of syndication. No way with low ratings and probably ratings drops each season that it gets to syndication. It will be just too costly.

    All in all, I see the show dropping significantly this season and being canceled at end of this season. No way it ever gets to syndication.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    As for SHIELD, my guess is this show will debut to big numbers. After that, it will depend on how well the show is produced. Since it’s Joss Whedon – who is batting .500 on TV shows (Buffy and Angel good ratings, Firefly and Dollhouse bad ratings), it’s anyone’s guess. However, Joss and his team have more experience now than they did before, so my guess is the show is going to be very well-done.

    I do think the tie-in with the movies will give it a real shot at being a hit. However, that wasn’t true for Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. OTOH, TSCC was tied to a franchise whose last movie (T-3) was a dud. SHIELD is tied to the 3rd highest-grossing movie of all time and a more recent franchise at that. I suspect this will count for a lot.

    The real question in my mind about the show is the plots. Exactly what will they be going for in terms of story lines, season arcs, and characters? We just don’t know. It’s going to have to be all-new, and they can’t call on any of the major movie characters to help out because a TV show can’t afford any of those people.

    Also, the cast – so far – is not impressive. While Clark Gregg will reprise his Phil Coulsen character, all the other characters so far aren’t compelling (although I do like Ming-Na Wen from previous roles.) Cobie Smulders – Agent Maria Hill from the movie – might make appearances.

    More importantly, who will be the villains and guest stars? A show like this survives on its villains.

    According to Wikipedia, “Jed Whedon, [Maurissa] Tancharoen and Bell will serve as showrunners if the pilot goes to series.” That means Joss isn’t going to be the showrunner (because he’s tied up with the new Avengers movie.) It remains to be seen whether the husband and wife team of Jed Whedon and Mo Tancharoen can do the job, even if Joss has high praise for his brother.

    Wikipedia also quotes Joss as follows:

    “Joss Whedon stated that the show would be autonomous from The Avengers, saying “It’s gotta be a show that works for people who haven’t seen the Marvel movies. It will please Marvel fans, I think.” In a September 2012 interview at the Toronto International Film Festival, Whedon reiterated that sentiment, going on to say “It’s new characters. It needs to be its own thing. It needs to be adjacent [to The Avengers]… What does S.H.I.E.L.D. have that the other superheroes don’t? And that, to me, is that they’re not superheroes, but they live in that universe. Even though they’re a big organization, that [lack of powers] makes them underdogs, and that’s interesting to me.” Whedon explained that while the show would involve people with powers and the spectacle of science-fiction storytelling, it would focus on “the peripheral people … the people on the edges of the grand adventures.”

    Frankly, I’m not sure that’s going to work. But we’ll see.

  • Tab Uno

    Alas another intriguing and uplifting mysterious and engaging new series to bite the dust – Zero Hour. There must be a minority of a demographic that mainstream broadcast television can’t reach.

  • a p garcia

    ZH is a very poor X-Files!

  • Nick

    Does this include the fact that it has been on hulu for the last month to view the premiere. Not a lot of people are going to watch it a second time…

    I thought it was pretty good, but of course it would not surprise me if it got cancelled nobody seems to be willing to give shows a chance anymore unless they are complete crap.

  • Tom A.

    I guess i won’t even bother with Zero Hour. Don’t they realize that many of us watch shows AFTER they premiere!?

    I’m guessing the networks will soon be mostly reality shows and all quality will be on cable.

  • Mac

    Of course it is going to be cancelled. Every show I like or intrigues me is always cancelled and anything that I can’t stand to watch for more than a couple of minutes wins awards. Shows should pay me to hate their shows. ~_^

  • Tony JJ

    @ SJ I agree about how networks don’t like admitting defeat. After all that promotion they did for Revenge’s big move to Sundays!, I doubt they would change it’s slot again. I mean even people who don’t follow ratings would be like, “Is this show failing? Why is it being moved around the schedule every year?”

  • Ultima

    @Tom A
    Don’t they realize that many of us watch shows AFTER they premiere!?

    The renew/cancel index is a prediction of what is going to happen. It is not associated with the networks or shows in any way.

  • Gary

    My wife and myself just got done watching the 2nd episode tonite and the back ground music was so loud and when it wasn’t the other noises made the show impossible to pick up more than “ONE” out of every “THREE” words so this show can kiss my royal behind , what a waste of time

  • JustMe

    zero hour was doa by lookng at the commercials. same feeling when I saw abc try charlies angels, that hotel 666 thing, the ashley judd show last season,and a bunch others etc. The revenge of the nerds guy as the star? really? Scandal is the only show I have watched on ABC since “Spenser for Hire” when I was a little kid.

  • Nick

    @JustMe

    The revenge of the nerds guy as the star? really?

    I really doubt Anthony Edwards is most known for ‘Revenge of the Nerds’ becuase he was on this little show called ‘ER’ for like, 10 seasons.

  • JacobYates

    The Neighbors haters will be dumbfounded when ABC renews it.

    “It has terrible retention out of the Middle” = Doesn’t matter
    “Critics hate it” = Doesn’t matter
    “Its ratings are always below 2.0″ = They’re still hovering around the scripted average for ABC
    “ABC could do better” = You’re right, but why take the chance when you already have a passable comedy?

    Time to put down the haterade. Neighbors will be back if it stays above 1.7 consistently.

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