CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas ‘CSI:NY,’ ‘The Good Wife’ & ‘The Mentalist’ Are Most Difficult To Predict

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two And A Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

This is a special “short week” holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the cancellation bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I’m leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old”  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

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