CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife' & 'The Mentalist' Are Most Difficult To Predict

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

-
This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the Cancellation Bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I'm leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Chris

    I hope CSI’s 1.9 was a fluke last week, thinking it was with the weak lead in.

  • Common Anomaly

    Even with the collapse of The Job, I still believe that CBS will only renew Undercover Boss for 13 episodes.

  • Josh

    I hope 2 Broke Girls gets a multi-year renewal. Even if it is 2 years.

  • cas

    Does anyone else think that everytime CBS moves something to Sunday’s it goes down drastically in ratings? I mean in the fall the shows rarely start on time, and who is going to stay up all night to watch them when they can just be recorded?

  • Paul

    I thought The Good Wife had such an edge over The Mentalist and CSI:NY because of it being a CBS production and the critical acclaim but the 1.4′s and 1.5′s are putting it in immense danger. I still pray that they will place The Good Wife on Fridays at 9pm. The Good Wife/Blue Bloods tandem would do very well for CBS (Fridays – all relative) and they get to still receive The Good Wife acclaim. Although now those 2.0′s/1.9′s The Good Wife was pulling on Tuesdays don’t look so bad ……….. But then again, CBS may keep The Good Wife on Sundays due to their constant overruns and chaos, might as well put the weak shows there.

  • DenverDean

    @Chris Yes CSI’s 1.9 was a fluke – two pre-emptions in NC + the late sub of TBBT (R) with shortened Survivor. The fact that it built off of TBBT repeat was a positive sign. It will rebound this week.

  • Honwy Badger

    I like “ The Good Wife “ on CBS. But the writers have to move on from the Alicia Florrick and Will Gardner attraction thing, that story has been played out, time to move on, come on writers you are better than this.

  • Mon

    @Common Anomaly
    I believe so. CBS should be careful not to tire Undercover Boss too much. UB is a great reality show. They can plug it anywhere and still get decent ratings. Also, a shorter season would most likely feature interesting companies only. There’s no pressure to do filler/boring episodes.

  • Mon

    @Paul
    I still pray that they will place The Good Wife on Fridays at 9pm. The Good Wife/Blue Bloods tandem would do very well for CBS (Fridays – all relative)

    There’s no point in canceling CSI: NY just to be replaced by a struggling veteran show that will do worse there. CBS will most likely premier a new show or move another (stronger) veteran show than move The Good Wife there. There’s virtually nowhere else to go for TGW where it would not do any damage. Maybe TGW will move to Sunday 10pm as a sacrificial lamb but not to Fridays.

  • rob60990

    The Good Wife would pull Made in Jersey ratings on Friday. CBS got 4 seasons out of this flop. Time to end it.

  • JacobYates

    Will Vegas see a rebound tonight since the only competition is Smash and Body of Proof? Or will it stay at its usual crappy ratings self? The suspense is killing me.

  • MichaelChickless

    The Mentalist is being renewed!

  • DJ

    http://www.i-newswire.com/simon-baker-opts-out-of-mentalist/213371

    If this report is true, and I don’t really think this leaked out by accident although in this crazy world god knows what anymore, then the Mentalist will be the one that is axed.

  • AA

    The Mentalist and The Good Wife will likely move to Fridays next season.

  • Ben

    Renew Rules of Engagement and treat it like an equal among CBS programs, instead like the unwanted orphan dumped on their doorstep. This show delivers the ratings, no matter what time slot it is in, but, does not get any respect from the network.

  • PhilipM

    It would be quite stupid to keep TGW in its current 9:00 PM timeslot or any other 9:00 PM timeslot as it’s quite clearly having a negative impact on TM this year, just like last year with CSI: Miami. Whether CBS decided to keep TGW where it is and cancel TM or not, TGW would have a negative impact on any lead-out. There’s still no syndication deal and the ratings are beyond terrible. It doesn’t really matter what CBS decides to air Sunday at 10:00 PM as long as TGW is still in its current timeslot.

  • Court

    Keep csiny love the show .

  • THE OLD MAN

    So glad I don’t have a reputation at stake with these marginal dramas. I’ll opt to give the bear some mai-tais on his beach instead.

  • PhilipM

    @DJ: That source doesn’t exactly seem like one you’d expect to come up with breaking news. It might even be less legit than last year’s tweet by an executive producer of TM who claimed that the show has already been renewed through season six.

  • DJ

    @phillipM: You have a link for the tweet? Also show’s get renewed on a yearly basis, a show like the Mentalist which gets demoted to Sunday night doesn’t get multi year gurantees and EVERY producer or executive thinks there show is getting renewed or going X amount of time. That itself isn’t a unbiased source to say the least.

    I agree this isn’t official but if information like this leaked out I’m not sure I’d expect CBS to break it right away. Now if we’re at this spot in a week and no other more well known outlets have reported this, then yeah I’ll agree with you, we have to reconsider the validity of this report for sure at the very least. But it does make sense with Simon’s actions and what he’s said in the past.

    We’ll see though, at the very least this isn’t encouraging for TM fans and any idea the executives have that they might be renewed goes to waste if Simon wants out.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures