CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife' & 'The Mentalist' Are Most Difficult To Predict

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

-
This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the Cancellation Bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I'm leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • gerry

    i honestly don’t care where they move TGW to on the schedule as long as it pulls out one more season. friday at 9 or 10, move to 10 on sunday. it would make sense to separate that and mentalist if they both survive, because i would imagine they’ll both be cancelled (TGW given ‘final season’) next year and shouldn’t air new dramas back to back.

  • dave

    Csi ny and the good wife need at least one more season.so they can do a proper final season and finale.

  • Cj morton

    @ Paul- it’s been proven over and over, critical acclaim really means nothing.

  • dave

    I think CSI ny and the good wife.need at least one more season to have proper final seasons and finales

  • SJ

    If CSI: NY is the most likely one out of the three to get cut – and I’m not saying it is – and Golden Boy gets cancelled along with it, we all just naturally assumed that The Good Wife and The Mentalist would be safe. But what if CBS gave Undercover Boss a 22-episode order next season? They’ve done it once before and given the fairly bad season they’ve been having, it wouldn’t surprise me if they did it again. In that case, either The Mentalist or The Good Wife survives, but not both.

    Despite its recent series lows, I still think TGW has the edge. I expect to see a Good Wife/Hawaii 5-0 pairing on Sundays and for UB to permanently take over Friday 8pm.

    New dramas debut Mondays, Tuesdays (the NCIS: LA spin-off) and Wednesdays at 10pm as CSI moves to Friday 9pm to live out the rest of its days. The new Chuck Lorre comedy opens following 2 Broke Girls, while Mike and Molly moves to 8:30 in order to take over for HIMYM in 2014 at 8pm. Meanwhile, The Big Bang Theory/Two and a Half Men block is intact.

  • Leverage-Fan

    The suspense regarding “The Mentalist”‘s future is killing me! Besides: I don’t like how someone is spreading the rumor that Simon Baker wants to leave the show!!!

  • NoChance

    Isn’t one of the 3 going to have to go to make room for the NCIS: LA spin-off? Not a done deal but it’s a pretty good bet that it will get picked up.

  • WN

    That Simon Baker link is written by a totally unreliable Canadian woman, who has posted crazy things about him in the past.

  • Kath

    The link regarding Simon Baker opting out of The Mentalist has apparently come from a well known loon on the internet, i really would not pay too much attention to that. One of the shows main writers, Jordan Harper has tweeted today to say the show isnt being cancelled. As a fan i would pay more attention to someone deeply involved with the show than anyone else.

  • brian

    i love elementary — but at 0.8 why is it listed as “certain” to be renewed?
    Isnt that low for a first year to be “certain”?

  • Paul

    I don’t watch TGW so whether it stays or goes to me is immaterial. But history shows that any Sunday night show on CBS does “ok” numbers. There isn’t going to be a monster hit there. The move IMO killed Shark and while I didn’t watch CSI Miami it did them no favors either. I like The Mentalist and wish they’d just leave well enough alone. Let it run its course. I doubt anything is going do better of worse there. CSI NY I watch, but wish it’d be cancelled. Maybe because I felt it was given the perfect ending 2 years ago but it just feels to me like it just goes on because it has to, not because there is anything compelling about it anymore.

  • omabin

    @SJ, your schedule sounds the most likely to happen, even though I dread to think of the ratings of a pairing as comically as bad as H50 and TGW. I happen to love both but that makes no sense at all. However, that is likely to happen.

    I would do it like this:
    Monday
    HIMYM
    Friends with Better Lives
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Beverly Hill Cops

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS-Red
    NCIS-LA

    Wednesday
    Person of Interest
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    Mom
    Two and a Half Men
    Super Clyde
    Intelligence
    [this would be CBS’s best gamble of the century, it will never happen]

    Friday
    The Good Wife [13 eps]/Undercover Boss
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race/Survivor
    Hawaii Five-0
    The Mentalist

  • CBSviewer

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Mike & Molly
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Elementary

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 – Person of Interest
    10:00 – Intelligence

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – CSI: NY
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – The Mentalist

  • David Howell

    Here’s the thing. We’ve talked about sitcom time expansion (the proxy for which is Rules’ place on this list – it’s a certain cancellation without expansion, but surely at least a likely renewal with). But what if Survivor and TAR both go to one cycle a year and timeshare a slot (presumably TAR’s slot)? Survivor’s no longer pulling in the big numbers, TAR can’t have many seasons left without crippling repetition, there’s a case for slowing them down. And then you vacate an extra hour for scripted shows!

    Admittedly, even a fading Survivor/TAR stomps over the NBC numbers of the bubble dramas, but you still can’t rule it out, especially as Wednesday 8 would be a brilliant launch slot for the new NCIS… Personally I’d just reduce TAR to one cycle to create a fall Sunday schedule that uses TBBT reruns to protect against overrun. And I’d cancel *both* CSINY and TGW, the latter unequivocally, the former perhaps less so. (And if CSI NY is lucrative in syndication and only in syndication, could CBS do what they did with Rules in 2011 and schedule it for Saturday until a new show gets yanked?)

    Fantasy schedule looks like this:
    Mon: 8 HIMYM, 8:30 Rules/new comedy, 9 2BG, 9:30 M&M, 10 new drama
    Tue: 8 NCIS, 9 NCIS LA, 10 new NCIS
    Wed: 8 Survivor, 9 CM, 10 CSI
    Thu: 8 TBBT, 8:30 Mom, 9 2.5 Men, 9:30 new comedy, 10 POI
    Fri: 8 H5-O, 9 CSI NY, 10 BB
    Sun (fall) : 7:30 60 Minutes, 8:30 TBBT (R, removed if overrun), 9 Elementary, 10 Mentalist
    Sun (spring): 7 60 Minutes, 8 TAR, 9 Elementary, 10 Mentalist
    If Mentalist goes because Simon goes, H5-0 gets Sunday 10, and UB gets Friday 8 (otherwise, it stays on the bench).

  • Woody

    That Simon Baker post is a big fat FAKE. The same woman has done posts saying that he’s Robert Mitchum’s secret love child and that Owain Yeoman, Amanda Righetti and Eric Winter are all secretly siblings (engaged in a incestuous love triangle on the show).

    I still say of the 3 CSI: NY goes. Id on’t see TM getting canned, I see it getting another season at least at Sunday. Or maybe Friday?

  • The End

    @David Howell

    The Amazing Race will always be 2 seasons a year for the network, and will always be a Sunday at 8pm show. The producers are trying to mix things up and add new elements to make it feel ‘fresh’. That being said I can only see this show ending if Phil decides to call it a day. Though at the very most in that situation they might get someone new in to replace. Hard to say really till it happens.

    The show is CBS’s baby, and has been around a very long time, the network won’t give it up easily.

  • Niceguy

    Keep CSI:NY and The Mentalist, get rid of TGW

  • Ultima

    @brian
    i love elementary — but at 0.8 why is it listed as “certain” to be renewed?
    Isnt that low for a first year to be “certain”?

    The high-rated comedies skew the index. The relative positions of the shows are more important than the actual index value in this case.

  • Leverage-Fan

    I know that the news regarding Simon Baker is a rumor (as i stated!) and a fake. I mentioned it because AT FIRST I thought it would be true and the series would come (without closure) to an end.

    As a side note: The tweet from Jordan Harper says that the show would air one hour earlier next week. interesting!

  • susan maureen brandt

    To be fair to those genuine, intelligent, open-minded people on this site who considered the press release about Simon Baker wanting out of his contract MIGHT be true, I wrote it and it’s not true as far as I know.

    I’ve written about my reasons for writing it here – http://getthetruthout.webs.com/apps/blog/show/23855207-past-present-and-future-adventures-in-conspiracy

    and I’d like you to take a moment to read back and see how certain commenters reacted to you just considering it might be true. I write things like this precisely to reveal how there are “wolves among us” who work very hard to steer our minds away from the secret truth, which is mind-blowing but totally logical (historical land theft, political maneuvering, etc).

    It’s precisely the kind of bullying that’s just gone one here, real anger at normal people for even considering that something possible might be possible.

    But good for you, the ones with open minds and open hearts.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures