CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife' & 'The Mentalist' Are Most Difficult To Predict

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the Cancellation Bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I'm leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • SJ

    @Leverage-Fan

    So The Good Wife won’t be airing against the Oscars, yet The Mentalist is, and is almost certain to hit a new series low. Tea leaf reading, anyone? :D

  • StevenD

    With the NCIS spinoff and Beverly Hills Cop pilot, plus all these single cam comedy orders, I would not be surprised to see 2 of the 3 canceled.

  • Woody

    @SJ

    The Mentalist isn’t airing a new episode next week, it’s a rerun. I don’t know if you were aware of this already, so just putting it out there.

  • Mk

    @ SJ

    The Good Wife is also on this Sunday. http://www.cbs.com/info/schedule/

  • Douglas from Brazil

    The Good Wife and The Mentalist should return to their old timeslot where they belong.The Good Wife was doing well on tuesday as well The Mentalist.

  • DW

    they cant get rid of the good wife. what program could replace peoples complaints on this site next year?. :)

  • Ateofi

    CSI NY is the most likely candidate for can?ellation and H50 will be moved to that time slot.

  • AverageJoe

    @Ben “Renew Rules of Engagement and treat it like an equal among CBS programs, instead like the unwanted orphan dumped on their doorstep.”

    You’re right! I don’t even watch this show, but this show definitely needs to be renewed. They bring in impressive numbers. I don’t know why it’s a toss up. It brought a 2.8 in the key demo. Other shows bring below 2 and get a likely renewal.

    Funny how today on Ellen, she said that Vegas is a hit show. That show is terrible. Cancel that show already.

  • PurpleDrazi

    Normally I’d say syndication would give TGW a leg up against TM (since it isn’t owned by CBS) but the fact that they STILL don’t have a syndication offer for TGW has got to be making CBS nervous.

    Yeesh! I’m way to chicken to make a call here. I’m just glad I don’t watch any of these shows so I don’t have to stress over it.

  • Greg

    MONDAYS

    8pm: Two and a Half Men
    8:30pm: Mike & Molly
    9pm: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30pm: Mom
    10pm: Hawaii 5-0

    Mike & Molly is not strong enough to lead an hour. I say bring TAHM back. It’s done nothing substantial for Person of Interest or Elementary.

    TUESDAYS

    8pm: NCIS
    9pm: NCIS: Los Angeles
    10pm: NCIS: Red Team

    WEDNESDAYS

    8pm: Survivor
    9pm: Criminal Minds
    10pm: Beverly Hills Cop

    THURSDAYS

    8pm: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30pm: Super Clyde
    9pm: Person of Interest
    10pm: Elementary

    FRIDAYS

    8pm: Undercover Boss
    9pm: CSI
    10pm: Blue Bloods

    SUNDAYS (until the end of October)

    8pm: The Amazing Race
    9pm: Unforgettable
    10pm: The Good WIfe

    (November)

    8pm: How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm: Rules of Engagement
    9pm: The Amazing Race
    10pm: The Good Wife

    Now this is the tricky part. Since Unforgettable is having a really late summer premiere, it’ll run at least through the end of October. In the meantime, CBS can check if Super Clyde is doing okay. If not, they can fix it by premiering HIMYM there and air Rules during Survivor/Amazing Race hiatus (it would only be renewed for 13 episodes, in case SC didn’t work). If so, then HIMYM and Rules would premiere on November sweeps.

    I do think they should do SOMETHING about Sundays. They’re just really bad these days. And HIMYM would be in its last season anyway (and they could announce Rules’ too), so it wouldn’t hurt.

  • JacobYates

    @AverageJoe
    You’re right if you’re talking about ratings. If you are, then yes, the show is a bust. But in terms of quality, writing, and acting, Vegas is a very good show. Too bad that none of that counts. It’s all about the ratings.

  • SJ

    @Mk

    “Waiting for the Knock” is an old episode, so it looks like CBS is just switching the order of the repeats, which is odd, but it doesn’t mean anything.

  • robby

    does cbs cancel csi ny i mean it already has a syndication deal and every year the ratings go lower the good wife and the mentalist not sure about.

  • Tommy M.

    If CBS picks up NCIS Red I don’t see them airing it on Tuesdays. 3 NCIS shows on one night is overkill. I think it’s more likely that NCIS LA moves to a new night and they launch Red out of the original NCIS. CBS should cancel both CSI NY and TGW as well as Vegas and possibly Golden Boy if it tanks. I know that would mean that they cancel up to 4 dramas but that would pave the way to expand their Thursday comedy block. Here’s what I’d do next season.
    If they expand their comedy lineup I would suggest that they keep RoE so that they’d only have to focus on launching 2 new comedies in the fall.

    Monday – HIMYM, M&M, 2BG, New Comedy, New Drama
    Tuesday – NCIS, NCIS Red, Elementary
    Wednesday – Survivor, CM, NCIS:LA
    Thursday – 2.5Men, RoE, TBBT, New Comedy, POI
    Friday – UB, H5-0, BB
    Sunday – TAR, CSI, Mentalist

  • DeanW

    @ Greg

    Why do you want CBS to move HIMYM and Rules to Sunday ? HIMYM will be on its Final Season but this year the Show is still high rated and CBS needs it to premiere a new Comedy.

    Another thing, CBS won’t create an NCIS Night on Tuesday. The New Spin-off will probably air after the Mothership and LA moves to Monday.

    CSI is CBS’s highest rated 10PM drama and there’s no reasons to move it to Friday. On the other hand Elementary could move on Sunday to replace TGW.

  • Hi

    Please renew good wife!!!

  • Nick

    What CBS should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: How I Met Your Mother (full final season)
    8:30: Two and a Half Men
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Super Clyde (new)
    10: Elementary

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: Hawaii Five-0
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: CSI

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Mom (new)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Crazy Ones (new)
    9:30: Mike & Molly
    10: Blue Bloods

    Sat-
    8: Darkness Falls (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: The Amazing Race
    9: Survivor
    10: The Mentalist

    Midseason – CSI:NY, The Good Wife, Rules of Engagement

    I’ve decided that CBS should expand their comedy hours next year. I’ve decided on Friday. Thoughts?

  • Dan

    CSI NY is done. Shortened season + a CSI geting cancelled last season + The series being on the bubble since May 2011 = Cancellation.

    RIP CSI NY September 22, 2004 – February 22, 2013

    Series finale airs Friday night

    Also while Vegas is certain to be gone, I believe The Mentalist will be cancelled in favor of Good Wife being renewed though I wouldn’t be surprised if CBS cancels all 3 bubble shows.

    Rules of Engagement looks done as well.

  • v

    I doubt The Mentalist gets canned, its WB show, like CHUCK, Fringe.
    It will get 1 more season to finish Red John story properly.

    GoodWife will get mid-season, or summer run to pad its episodes and get to 100. There already at 88 or something. Whats another 10 episodes for a CBS studio show.

    Are you shy on Vegas, shouldn’t it be 1 star now.
    There’s no chance its coming back, especially with 3rd NCIS spinoff a lock for pickup.

  • Dan

    I think when CSI NY is cancelled, the original CSI may be moved to Fridays, so CBS could launch a new drama Wed at 10. That could help since airing new dramas on fridays have failed the past 3 seasons.

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