CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife' & 'The Mentalist' Are Most Difficult To Predict

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the Cancellation Bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I'm leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • KJ Styles

    Christ this topic is soooo redundant!!

  • Greg

    @DeanW

    Because, as I already said, CBS’ Sundays are really weak now? And slotting two highly rated shows will give a boost to the rest of the night? And they’re close to end so if this experiment doesn’t work, they don’t have to worry about causing long term damage to these shows? And CBS could just as easily use their other THREE hit comedies to launch new ones instead of HIMYM?

  • Mark

    CBS should start 2 hour comedy block Thursday next fall:

    Monday:
    8pm – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm – Rules of Engagement
    9pm – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30pm – Bad Teacher

    Thursday:
    8pm – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30pm – Mom
    9pm – Two and A Half Men
    9:30pm – Mike and Molly

    Midseason:
    Crazy Ones

  • Bill Poster

    Fantasy Schedule rundown:

    Sunday 8PM New , 9PM Hawaii Five-0 , 10PM Vegas
    Monday 8-10PM Sitcom Quad as current 10PM The Good Wife
    Tuesday 8-10PM NCIS Double as current , 10PM CSI
    Wednesday 8PM Elementary ,9PM Person Of Interest ,10PM Criminal Minds
    Thursday 8PM Sitcom Double as Current , 9PM New , 10PM New
    Friday 8-11PM New

  • Ultima

    Fantasy Schedule rundown

    tl;dr version: “Reality Sucks!!1!” :roll:

  • Ultima

    Fantasy Schedule rundown

    Actually, I’ll go one step further. That’s the single worst CBS fantasy schedule I’ve seen all year.

  • Barbie

    The Good Wife has a 0.59 on a Sunday. CSI:NY has 0.52 on a Friday. CSI:NY is staying. Again.

  • Barbie

    @KJ Styles

    “Christ this topic is soooo redundant!!”

    I know, right? And every year, they say CSI:Ny is going, and every year, CSI:NY stays! Typical. LOL <3

  • PhilipM

    @Barbie: The index is based on performance. Not all renewals and cancellations are based on performance. TGW would only be renewed because of a potential syndication deal and the money that comes with it. CBS hoping for a syndication deal was enough to get it renewed last year. We’ll see what happens this time. TM would only be canceled due to being a WB show and not providing any syndication money; its performance would still be good enough to get it renewed, even after this season’s disappointing numbers.

    When it comes to TGW, CSI: NY and TM, it’s impossible to predict the outcome based on their ratings performances. It’s also about syndication money or lack thereof, production costs and license fees, just to name a few of the many factors.

  • Melanie

    I still hope for a Vegas miracle. It would be good on Fridays with Blue Bloods.
    The Good Wife continues to drop – it has its syndication numbers and the acclaim seems to be over, I can’t see CBS renewing it again.

  • scarps

    It’s still early to predict schedules and I’m not sure what they will do. CBS is a very surprising network.

  • MJDB

    My takes:

    60 Minutes-Certain Renewal
    The Amazing Race-Certain Renewal
    The Good Wife-On the Bubble
    The Mentalist-On the Bubble
    Rules of Engagement-On the Bubble
    2 Broke Girls-Certain Renewal
    Mike and Molly-Certain Renewal
    Hawaii Five-0-Certain Renewal
    NCIS: Los Angeles-Certain Renewal
    Vegas-Certain Cancellation
    Survivor-Certain Renewal
    Criminal Minds-Certain Renewal
    C.S.I.: Crime Scene Investigation-Certain Renewal
    Two and a Half Men-Certain Renewal based on ratings, On the Bubble due to contracts
    Person of Interest-Certain Renewal
    Elementary-Likely Renewal
    Undercover Boss-Certain Renewal
    C.S.I.: NY-Likely Cancellation
    Blue Bloods-Certain Renewal
    48 Hours Mystery-Certain Renewal

  • mart

    Oh no. Another NCIS spin-off? Too many CSI/NCIS types of shows nowadays. :(

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    My comments:
    – I love H50, but it is nowhere strong enough to anchor Wednesdays like that. It would do worse than survivor and I think CBS cares more about wednesday results than sundays. Plus, it would be one less move.
    – Additionally, Elementary would tank on Mondays imo. It is only doing moderately ok after a very compatible lead-in and against minimal competition (ok, scandal is growing, but nbc has nothing on, and it has no other procedural to go up against). It would not survive mondays. Either it stays where it is (which I doubt and disagree with, since the post POI slot is too valuable right now) or it needs to go to fridays or sundays. I think it would do a solid job on fridays. Something needs to go there anyway and it might as well.
    – As for the comedy expansion, I also think they are going to expand but not capitalizing on the big bang theory monstruous numbers to do that sounds too much for me. Also, I think moving 2HM again is not the best move since I doubt it would pay off that big and again, is one less move. I also think that the good wife will be on the fall’s schedule somehow. If they do comedies on fridays, I think they will go with two new ones there, I don’t see them taking mike and molly out of mondays because next season himym is ending and almost for sure two and a half men as well, so they could be left only with 2 broke girls in there if the new comedies happen to flop. I don’t see it happening…
    – I also think that Beverly Hills Cops is almost certain to be picked up.

    What do you think of mine?
    Monday
    How I Met Your Mother
    Friends With Better Lives [sounds very compatible with HIMYM]
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Beverly Hill Cops

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS-Red
    NCIS-LA

    Wednesday
    Person of Interest
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    Mom
    Two and a Half Men
    Super Fun Night
    Intelligence

    Friday
    The Good Wife [13 eps]/ Undercover Boss
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race/ Survivor [one season each]
    Hawaii Five-0
    The Mentalist

    I realize this will never happen, at least like this, because Thursday would have 3 new shows and this would require a looot of moving (no night would stay as it is), so it could not be more against what CBS does. But I think it would work real nicely. Rules should be renewed as a backup once more. It is pulling 3.0s right now which is a very good number that should not be taken for granted (hell, Two and a Half Men opened the season at a 3.5 following TBBT), which would minimize the impact of one of the comedies failing. I just think they have too many great comedy pilots not to capitalize on it. And I am not even including the Robin Williams pilot here…

  • Honey Badger

    Interesting

    The difference between CBS and NBC.
    CBS “Rules of Engagement” 2.9 18-49 rating 8.19 Viewers (millions).
    And “Rules of Engagement” cannot find a permanent time slot on CBS; they use it as a midseason replacement show to fill in for shows that are cancelled.

    If a show got ratings like this on NBC, it would be their top rated show outside of The Voice and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football.

    Of course CBS having so many shows with good ratings makes decisions harder to make for CBS. If they cancel a show like “Rules of Engagement”, can they replace it with a show that will do as well in the ratings? And can they find a show that they can put in different time slots and still get good ratings like “Rules of Engagement”?

    This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC, and harder decisions to make on CBS . The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

  • Nick

    @omabin

    I love H50, but it is nowhere strong enough to anchor Wednesdays like that. It would do worse than survivor and I think CBS cares more about wednesday results than sundays.

    Oh, definitely. I just was in a pinch when I replaced a new drama with a comedy hour and had no place to put H50. It’s been banished to Sundays now.

    – Additionally, Elementary would tank on Mondays imo.

    I don’t think it would tank , but it is a bit of a wild card. How about a 13 episode order and the promise to launch Beverly Hills Cop if it does tank?

    As for the comedy expansion, I also think they are going to expand but not capitalizing on the big bang theory monstruous numbers to do that sounds too much for me.

    CBS has had trouble launching hit dramas recently (The Good Wife, Unforgettable, anyone?), so I think they need to nurture Person of Interest and keep it in that Thu@9 slot. If there will be any comedy expansion, it shouldn’t be there.

    Also, I think moving 2HM again is not the best move since I doubt it would pay off that big

    I don’t either. It’s going to Mondays to die in peace.

    I also think that the good wife will be on the fall’s schedule somehow.

    With its ratings, it shouldn’t even be used as spackle. Alas, syndication $’s call…

    . If they do comedies on fridays, I think they will go with two new ones there, I don’t see them taking mike and molly out of mondays because next season himym is ending and almost for sure two and a half men as well, so they could be left only with 2 broke girls in there if the new comedies happen to flop. I don’t see it happening…

    First of all, I hate it when networks premiere 2 new comedies together. It almost always fails in their faces (Animal Practice/Guys With Kids, Up All Night/Free Agents, even Go On/The New Normal), unless there’s an obvious hit in the bunch (like Modern Family and Last Man Standing). It’s just not a good idea.
    Secondly, Mike & Molly is not desperately needed in the Monday block. If all the new shows flop (which is highly unlikely), they have Rules of Engagement and they could squeeze a final season out of 2.5 Men. And, they could always move it back.

    What do you think of mine?

    Apart from a few big disputes (which I discussed already), it’s a solid schedule. I just have two problems:
    • The new comedies – There are a bunch of more buzzy pilots with more potential than Super Fun Night & Friends With Better Lives. I’d replace one with Super Clyde or Crazy Ones (the Robin Williams/Sarah Michelle Gellar comedy).
    • The Amazing Race/Survivor slot sharing – I don’t think they’re ready for that yet. Their ratings aren’t that bad, and both will improve next fall when the Fans v. Faves is over & football is back. I do get your reason for cutting down, though.

  • samurai99

    Would somebody please explain to me how Elementary doesn’t have worse competition than H50 and Vegas when it goes up against Scandal?

  • blackrock1969

    “Super Fun Night” got moved to ABC.

  • omabin

    @Nick,

    – As for Elementary, I can’t agree with that one. I really think the show is not solid enough. I mean, it is basically pulling the same numbers as Five-0 if you discount the first weeks of both shows when Elementary premiered and when H50 was going up against 3s from Revolution. Moving a show is, in itself, a bleeding factor unless it goes up to a more favorable timeslot. So chances are elementary would go down from where it (and H50) is now. Especially as Monday’s at 10 is way harder than Thursdays at 10. Yes, Scandal is growing, but NBC still has nothing there and there is no Monday Night Footbal there. Plus, although POI and MM are about the same size in terms of ratings, POI is way more compatible to a procedural than comedy will be. Add in the promotion that Elementary received this season (as well as it being a first year show, so more prone to drop), including a post superbowl slot, and it will tank badly on mondays. I am thinking sub 2.0. They are better of with a strong new show right out of the gate (especially because premering shows on fall is almost always a better idea). But Elementary will still be renewed and it has merit to do so, so off to Fridays it goes (sunday would also be possible, but i think it fits fridays better)
    – I actually think that going away from football during the whole fall would allow POI to grow even more on Wednesday. Yes, it would be away from the super potent lead-in, but that lead-in doesn’t seem to have changed its demo that much this year, I am not sure how compatible they actually are. And a pairing with Criminal Minds would likely be beneficial for both shows. On top of that, Wednesday at 8pm is begging for a drama there, since Arrow is the only one airing. And the existing competition is not even that big! The Middle/whatever comedy follows it are low 2s performers (not to mention that likely appeal to different audiences), Idol/X Factor aren’t that big anymore not to mention the first hour is their lower rated and NBC, well, it’s NBC. I think it would still be protected there, as weird as it sounds.
    – About Two and a Half Men, my point is why bother moving a show to let it die? I mean, moving a show requires promotioanl efforts that could be better used someplace else, especially if it just for one single season. Also, as I have said before, I believe that moving is, in itself a cause for bleeding. The show is already hitting high 3s with bbt as lead-in. Take away big bang, it would likely go to 3s. Move it and it would likely be high 2s. And the show has got to be one of the most expensive shows on network tv (and you also want to add on top of that the costs of promoting the move). I don’t see the benefit…
    – I love The Good Wife and want it renewed. But I agree that based on ratings it should not be there. But for syndication, I believe it will be there. So I think trying to to do a schedule without it is not very realistic (then again, I do have 3 new shows on thursday, so I am not the best one to speak)
    – Well, if the new comedies are strong enough, they could premiere them together. The Robin Williams comedy seems unfitting with the monday/thursday offerings and very fittig with the older demographic from fridays… It could probably launch another one out of it. I understand your point though, but I would still feel safer about leaving MM in a much more important night such as monday than possibly destroying it on fridays. I doubt the show could come back after being on fridays for a whole season
    – I accidentally typed in Super Fun Night, I meant Super Clyde with Rupert Grinn, I think that one should be picked up. So there we are in agreement. As for Crazy Ones, I think it would work well on fridays, but I am not sure it would fit well on mondays. I don’t think friends with better lives will be picked up, I haven’t seen much buzz around it, but I think it would work perfectly with HIMYM and potentially be its replacement next season, which honestly should be CBS’s priority for Monday’s next season.
    – As for reality, if they don’t wanna go there, they can cancel the mentalist since they have no vested interest in it anyway and put H50 on Sundays at 10 instead of at 9pm. The reality show would jut follow one another. It is really not that crucial in my scheduling.

  • Dima

    cbs schedule for next season:

    Monday
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement or New Comedy
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – New Drama (Beverly Hills Cops)

    Tuesday
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – New Drama (NCIS : Red Team)
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    Wednesday
    8:00 – NCIS: LA
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – New Drama

    Thursday
    8:00 – Two and a Half Men
    8:30 – Mike & Molly
    9:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    9:30 – New Comedy (Mom)
    10:00 – Elementary

    Friday
    8:00 – Hawaii 5-0
    9:00 – CSI
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Survivor
    10:00 – The Mentalist

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