CBS: As Usual, Marginal Dramas 'CSI:NY,' 'The Good Wife' & 'The Mentalist' Are Most Difficult To Predict

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
CSI:NY (F) :cry: :cry: 0.52
Vegas :cry: :cry: 0.56
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
Partners* canceled 0.79
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.27
NCIS renewed 1.27
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.03

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CBS Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

While the Cancellation Bear is away on vacation, you could do worse than tangle over which of the low rated CBS bubble dramas will meet his jaws. As noted in the table, I'm leaning towards CSI:NY, but I admit my case vs. The Good Wife or The Mentalist being canceled instead is weak. None of those three shows cancellations would surprise me (and at least one of the three certainly will be canceled). Their futures are are likely tied to syndication revenues for the CBS Studios shows and licensing fees for The Mentalist, neither of which are public information.

Think of the bear on the beach while you discuss.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Sam

    @dima, POI stays where it is .. 9pm ET Thurs.

  • JSunkist

    All those green smiley faces! :D :D :D :D :D

  • Honeybee

    How come comedies get mutli year renewals by not hit dramas like NCIS or POI

  • Elaine Campbell

    I wish they would not cancel Vegas! Cancel 2 Broke girls, that is the stupidest show!!!

  • Nick

    @omabin

    As for Elementary, I can’t agree with that one. I really think the show is not solid enough.

    Yeah, you’re probably right.

    Elementary will still be renewed and it has merit to do so, so off to Fridays it goes (sunday would also be possible, but i think it fits fridays better)

    You’re right, but my Fridays and Sundays are packed with Undercover Boss being in the fall, H50 moving there, and a new comedy block. I’ll ship it to midseason as filler.

    I actually think that going away from football during the whole fall would allow POI to grow even more on Wednesday.

    Yeah, that’s the problem. We’re thinking with different perspectives. You’re thinking of Person of Interest’s ratings, and I’m thinking of CBS as a whole. Thursday is the most important night of the week for advertising sales (last good day before the weekend) and it can’t be too chaotic. Person Of Interest should be an important building block in the future, and I don’t think it should be moved.

    my point is why bother moving a show to let it die? I mean, moving a show requires promotioanl efforts that could be better used someplace else

    I phrased that wrong. I meant that 2.5 Men moving to Mondays wouldn’t be for its own benefit, but so CBS could have a steadyish 8:30 filler that would be able to do better than Rules of Engagement. I don’t expect it to do great, but I don’t expect it to die next season. The move would be for about 2 seasons, depending on if the ratings collapse.
    Also, it’s not that much more promotion than needed after a summer break. I don’t think that’s an issue.

    So I think trying to to do a schedule without it is not very realistic

    Did you miss that I have it for midseason?

    – Well, if the new comedies are strong enough, they could premiere them together. The Robin Williams comedy seems unfitting with the monday/thursday offerings and very fittig with the older demographic from fridays… It could probably launch another one out of it. I understand your point though, but I would still feel safer about leaving MM in a much more important night such as monday than possibly destroying it on fridays.

    I don’t get why you think Crazy Ones is strong enough to support a new comedy but not Mike & Molly. I think they’d be very compatible and flow well, so it wouldn’t necessarily tank and/or need to go back to Mondays. Also, CBS doesn’t have a lot of pilots that would be compatible with Crazy Ones (but who knows with these things, 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly are very different shows, yet M&M gets ~95% retention).

    I haven’t seen much buzz around it, but I think it would work perfectly with HIMYM and potentially be its replacement next season, which honestly should be CBS’s priority for Monday’s next season.

    Your points are all valid, but I don’t see Friends with Better Lives being an anchor in fall 2014. It’s much more likely Mom, Crazy Ones, or whatever ends up being TBBT’s leadout is the anchor then.

  • Ben

    Another idea for next season

    Monday
    8:How I Met Your Mother (24 episodes)
    8:30-Two and a Half Men (24 episodes)
    9:2 Broke Girls (24 episodes)
    9:30-Mike and Molly (24 episodes)
    10:NCIS: LA (22 episodes)

    Tuesday
    8:NCIS (22 episodes)
    9:NCIS: RED (NEW)(16 episodes with option to order 6 more)
    10:Hawaii Five-0 (22 episodes)

    Wednesday
    8:Survivor (Undercover Boss during hiatus)
    9:Criminal Minds (22 episodes)
    10:CSI(22 episodes)

    Thursday
    8:The Big Bang Theory (24 episodes)
    8:30-MOM (NEW)(13 episodes)/ CRAZY ONES (NEW)(11 episodes)
    9:Person of Interest (22 episodes)
    10:NEW DRAMA (13 episodes with option to order up to 9 more)

    Friday
    8:The Good Wife (13 episode final season)/CSI: NY (13 episode final season)
    9:Elementary (20 episodes)
    10:Blue Bloods (20 episodes)

    Sunday
    8:The Amazing Race (Undercover Boss during hiatus)
    9:NEW DRAMA(13 episodes with option to order up to 9 more)
    10:The Mentalist (22 episode final season)

    Cancelled from 2012-2013 season: Rules of Engagement, Vegas, Golden Boy (if successful than cancel CSI: NY and order 13 episodes of Golden Boy instead)

    What do you think?

  • DeanW

    Can you tell me what you think of my schedule:

    MONDAYS
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAYS
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Criminal Minds

    WEDNESDAYS
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Person of Interest
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAYS
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men
    9:30 – Mike & Molly
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAYS
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – CSI: NY
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAYS
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – The Good Wife / NEW DRAMA

  • DeanW

    Sorry I forgot Elementary.

  • Jon

    @ Cas- I agree, Sundays for CBS get a bit dicey, and a lot of shows that performed well on other nights, don’t do as well on Sunday. Football has a lot to do with that, but they can’t use that excuse anymore. I think the phenomenon that is the Walking Dead is taking such a large chunk of the viewing pie on Sunday night since it’s return.

  • Buddy

    I hope CBS gives The Good Wife at least a 12 episode final season. That will bring it to 100 and allow the show runners to end the story properly. It really deserves special treatment as the only major Emmy winner by CBS in the drama category lately.

    They can even store it for midseason. It couldn’t possibly do worse than these last minute shows they slap on in March (Chaos, Miami Medical, Golden Boy).

  • Revgen

    I think the Mentalist will stay on. It attracts middle-aged women, who typically make buying decisions in a household, and frankly has no competition at the 10:00PM timeslot. Despite the timeslot, it still outperforms The Good Wife, which airs earlier, and significantly outperforms ABC’s Zero Hour, it’s only competition.

  • Nena Dyhr

    I love “The Good Wife” and it was hard to keep track of the shows timing due to the changes in the football games. I am tiring of “The Mentalist”
    One of my other faves is “Vegas” which gets better every week. Why is this new show “Golden Boy” being placed in the “Vegas” slot with no prior warning. Do the people look at how many people watch a show in their regular time slot or do they include those who bank a show for later enjoyment.

  • Daye

    I love The Mentalist and would like to see it go for another season, then wrap up the Red John story and let Simon get back to movie acting. CBS has bounced the show around so much and Sunday nights are bad because of football and other pre-empts. Give it a good slot and let the fans enjoy!

  • BillyMCopeland

    It seems that the people who set the ratings are in control of the hen house!!
    Shows that have great actors like Vegas, The Good Wife ect on CBS are rated with
    out true regards to who’s watching!!
    Those that have actors that truly stink like “Elementary” get hight ratings! I’ve
    tried my best to watch it and it has bad writing and the lead actor mumbles his
    words!! I think he is truly tying to be like the orginal Sherlock Homes and is
    snorting that white powder!
    To cancel Vegas in Mid-season is totally ridiculous!!!

  • POI

    Possible CBS Schedule

    Monday:
    8:00 How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 New Comedy
    9:00 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 Mike and Molly
    10:00 Elementary

    Tuesday:
    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS:LA
    10:00 NCIS:LA SPINOFF (New Show)

    Wednesday:
    Same or can put a new show here

    Thursday:
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 New Comedy
    9:00 2.5 men
    9:30 New Comedy
    10:00 Person of Interest

    Friday:
    new shows or bring Hawaii Five 0 to die

    Sunday:
    same but
    9:00 Hawaii Five 0 or CSI
    10:00 The Mentalist

  • Liz

    Sunday:
    8:00-The Amazing Race
    9:00-Hawaii Five 0
    10:00-The Mentalist

    Monday:
    8:00-How I Met Your Mother
    8:30-MOM
    9:00-2 Broke Girls
    9:30-Mike and Molly
    10:00-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday:
    8:00-NCIS
    9:00- NCIS LA
    10:00-NCIS SPINOFF

    Wednesday:
    SAME

    Thursday:
    8:00- The Big Bang Theory
    8:30- SUPER CLYDE
    9:00- 2.5 Men
    9:30-CRAZY ONES
    10:00-Persons of Interest

    Friday:
    8:00-The Good Wife
    9:00-Elementary
    10:00-Blue Bloods

  • Sarah

    Move The Mentalist to a different night because Sunday night is not a good place for it. Put it during the week, like Thursday or Friday. I love the Show and I will stay up to watch it when it gets pushed back to a later time because of football, golf, or some other weird reason. The ratings are not good on Sundays and I feel like The Mentalist will get cancelled if it stays in Sunday time slot. I would hate to see that happen because it is such a great show and has a great cast of characters! Please don’t cancel it!!!!

  • carole

    I love Vegas. If CBS cancels it.Good by CBS!

  • scarps

    After CSI: NY finale ep. I’d say it’s all over. CSI: NY (2004-2013)

  • Steve

    It’s funny to me how little TBTN always knows about the stuff going on behind the numbers. The Good Wife is internally already renewed and The Mentalist has a very good chance at renewal, too. CSI NY is dead.

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