CW: 'Beauty & The Beast' Downgraded To "Toss Up" Just Like 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
90210 :cry: :cry: 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.65
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.81
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.90
Supernatural renewed 1.36
Arrow renewed 1.50
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.76

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the CW Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

After two 0.7 adults 18-49 ratings to start 2013 for Beauty & The Beast I moved it up to "likely to be renewed". Now after a 0.6 and a 0.5, I'm moving it back to a "toss up" with Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • MJDB

    My takes:

    90210=Likely Cancellation
    The Carrie Diaries-On the Bubble
    Hart of Dixie-On the Bubble
    Beauty and the Beast-On the Bubble
    Nikita-Likely Renewal

  • eselle28

    Cult has made things easy. Supernatural, Arrow, Vampire Diaries, and Nikita are easy renewal choices. I don’t think the CW can handle more than four new shows, so it’s stuck with two of Hart of Dixie, Beauty and the Beast, and The Carrie Diaries. No, I didn’t include 90210 on the list, because I don’t think it’s in the discussion anymore. This is its last season.

    Beauty and the Beast has the highest ratings of the bunch, and it’s somewhat compatible with the CW’s new roster of fantasy programs. I say renew it and hope it doesn’t drop too much when it loses its timeslot.

    Hart of Dixie is at least a sophmore. It’s closer to syndication and has shown an ability to hold its audience. Ship it off to Fridays, and at least the CW won’t have to worry about that timeslot for a couple years.

    Unless Carrie rebounds, I say cancel it. It’s a freshman, it just premiered and may still drop viewers, and it doesn’t fit well with the CW’s new image as a place to find urban fantasy.

  • DeanW

    I think 90210 is safe now. Cult premiered with a 0.3 and it will be canceled. 90210 will get its 10 episode final Season thanks to Cult’s flop.

  • JulieDawn

    @Tom.

    Passion doesn’t have to mean ‘love’. It simply means that you feel strongly about something. So @J Princess is right, and you’re the one who needs the remedial English class.

  • JulieDawn

    @Danielle

    Ignore Tom. He’s an idiot who I’ve tried intelligently for weeks to interact with, but he can’t seem to climb out of the quicksand he keeps falling into.

  • Charmed

    Predictions

    Nikita: 100%
    Hart Of Dixie: 100%
    The Carrie Diaries: 55%
    90210: 40%
    Beauty And The Beast: 35%
    Cult: 1%

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: “RSH, please stop commenting on my posts.I don’t like you.”

    Bwahahahahahaha!!! Stop writing nonsense and I’ll stop pointing it out. :-)

    “Yes, 90210 has enough episodes and VD will at the end of this season but that’s different than actually getting/having a deal.”

    Duh! Same old nonsense. Look, the STUDIOS decide which shows might get a syndication deal or not, NOT THE NETWORKS! They then offer the networks a deal to air the show. The network decides based on whether they think they can earn a profit from ad revenue over the price the studio has offered them.

    Therefore, it’s IRRELEVANT what the network thinks about syndication! All that matters is what the deal is the studio offers the network and that is something WE DON’T KNOW. And you don’t know either. So the only way to determine whether a show is going to get a fourth season is: 1) it’s ratings in season 3 are good (duh); 2) it’s ALREADY been given a season 3 DESPITE bad ratings – which proves the reason for renewal is syndication (provided of course that it will have sufficient episodes at the end of season four.)

    It’s IRRELEVANT whether a deal will or will not be made. That’s the studio’s risk, not the network’s.

    That said, anyone who thinks The Vampire Diaries isn’t going to be syndicated is nuts. And probably 90210 as well.

    “Im also not the only one saying CW won’t be around after 2015-2016 when affiliate contracts are up.”

    No one knows what will happen at that time. No one. Speculation is pointless.

    “bash shows cause I don’t like them like you do.”

    You’ve been arguing for weeks that Nikita is probably not going to get a fourth season for a variety of spurious reasons. The sole real reason for that is that you like 90210, because you’ve been arguing that it might get another season regardless of the fact that its ratings are pathetic, it already has syndication numbers, so there’s no reason whatever to give it another season.

    You have been bashing Nikita with your spurious arguments against Nikita getting another season. You’ve done this solely because you like 90210 and don’t like Nikita, even those neither of those shows has ANYTHING whatever to do with the other and neither of those shows is going to affect the other’s chances for renewal.

    I bash shows I WATCH and don’t like. I don’t bash shows I don’t watch. What I DO is comment on shows that have low ratings, whether I watch them or not.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Danielle: “What’s the point of syndicating a show like Nikita (spending all that time and effort as a network) when it’s ratings are worse than new shows like BATB or TCD?”

    Let me re-iterate what’s happening and how this works:

    1) The ratings are the NETWORK’S problem. Syndication is the STUDIO’S problem. The two are not related.

    2) As long as the STUDIO thinks the show has syndication potential – for reasons and financial structure WE will never know – they will offer the show to the network for a low price.

    3) As long as the network thinks it can make a profit (or at least break even while filling a time slot) based on the studio’s offer, it will renew the show.

    4) The FACT that Nikita was renewed for season three despite pathetic ratings in season two proves that the studio believes in the show’s syndication potential and proves that the studio offered the show to the network at a price the network believes it can accept, EVEN though both of them presumably could GUESS that the ratings for season three might be even worse than season two.

    5) Nikita probably has high syndication potential in Asia, where Maggie Q is a big star, and possibly elsewhere.

    6) Syndication potential does not necessarily have anything whatever to do with ratings in the home market – although of course if the show has low ratings because it is terminally bad in terms of quality, presumably that would affect syndication potential. Nikita’s quality is fine, therefore that is not a factor.

    7) So we can conclude nothing about Nikita’s syndication potential based on its CW ratings. We can only assume that WB thinks Nikita has syndication potential and that the CW believes the price is right because they DID do the deal.

    None of this applies to BATB, which is showing low ratings in its first season, and is unlikely to grow beyond .6-.7 if that. If moved to Fridays, it will likely drop to .5 or lower like Nikita has. But because that will occur in season two, it is far less likely to get a renewal for syndication purposes. It could happen, but again we can’t know UNTIL the studio actually makes a deal with the network and the show IS renewed for a season three (AFTER being renewed for a season two despite its current bad ratings.)

    Also remember that a .5 average on a week night is worse than a .5 average on Friday.

    Hope this explains to you why Nikita is a lock for syndication and BATB is not.

  • Justin

    I wouldn’t be surprised (in the slimmest and rarest of chances) if HOD, BATB, Nikita and CD are all renewed somehow. We’ve seen it before that The CW can’t afford to pick-up and create all these new shows. Last year they picked up five (BATB, EOMD, Cult, CD & Arrow) to drop four (OTH, SC, Ringer & H8R). This is all speculative and my thoughts:

    TVD, SPN and Arrow are already renewed so why bother discussing.

    90210 – Its numbers are really bad for a veteran show. Regardless of any excuse or reasoning like lead in or timeslot, it’s been on the air for five years and the fact it can’t hold onto its live ratings by itself isn’t a good thing. Only a pity concluding season would suffice but Pedowitz seems like a big business type of man that I don’t think he would waste a fall slot anymore. Potentially a summer run or an additional episode order.

    CD – If its ratings can stabilize, it does have a somewhat shot. This show is more about the SATC/Carrie Bradshaw brand than anything. If it can keep up, it could get a pity 13 episode trial like Life Unexpected or a summer run.

    HOD – The fact that it’s stable without a lead-in on Tuesday is good. I don’t personally watch the show but it has a following and if the network wants to support it for syndication possibilities, it could anchor a Monday/Tuesday timeslot.

    Cult – I kinda liked the pilot but I don’t think it will survive yet. For some reason I find this show should be a one-off mini-series only. The “mystery” could be solved in one season and I would hate to see The CW try and drag this on to create mysteries about this show-within-a-show.

    BATB – If its ratings stabilize it could anchor Tuesday or move to Friday at 9 p.m. to be paired with Nikita. BATB has the best lead-in and if the network has faith that it won`t drop, those two nights are it`s only hope.

    Nikita – One season away from syndication numbers and it’s not terrible on Friday nights. Why bother playing coy? The CW should have just announced its renewal earlier and get Nikita a little positive buzz for next year.

    Taking into account EOMD cancellation, GG ending and Cult’s and 90210′s possible cancellations, the network has enough money to pick up maybe five new shows. I would guess that Oxygen, The Selection, Tomorrow People, Company Town and The Originals have the best chance. Reign is a little to old (plus expensive for period theme), The Hundred would cost too much to recreate a post-apocalyptic world and Blink just sounds too confusing/terrible.

  • Starship

    After Cult being DOA and 90210 not adjusting up, the situation at the CW is getting more and more clear. They can’t launch more than 4 new shows in Fall and I think they might launch even less, which would mean that 3 or 4 of the currently not renewed series are getting picked up. Unless Cult miraculously gains some audience next week, my guess is:
    Nikita – Certain Renewal
    Hart of Dixie – Certain Renewal
    Beauty and the Beast – Toss Up
    90210 – Toss Up
    The Carrie Diaries – Likely Cancellation
    Cult – Certain to be cancelled

  • Lela

    I think BATB has a core audience that will follow it anywhere. Plus it’s cheap to produce since it’s filmed in Toronto. Half of the production cost is paid by the Canadian side. I think it sold into at least 5 markets. Canada, UK, NZ and a few South American countries. With additional ethnic cast members coming on, perhaps it can be sold into other markets like India and parts of Asia.

    This show is horribly written but compelling in ships. I watch for ships but only online. A lot of people are supporters of Kristin from SV days. Different demo from the VD lead for sure. I also think SV was a horrible horrible show saved by the ship of Clana, LEXARK, CHLARK…

    Again, Max Brown.. he’s too good for CW. HBO, come and get him.. PLEEEEEEAAASE.

    How expensive is TCD to produce? They’re filmed in NY, right?

  • J.

    Personally, I like the “Beauty and the Beast” and “Hart of Dixie” I don’t paricularilly care for Carrie Diaies, Gossip girl, 90210-the new series, or Nikita! I think that Emily Owens is an alright show…

  • iMissOTH

    Aside the shows that are already picked up.. Everything is pretty bad.

    Nikita- those .5s don’t look so bad after this week, so full season renewal, potential last 4th season

    BATB – doing better than cult and cd, more likely renewal

    CD – more likely to be cancelled

    Cult – bring Alaric back to mystic falls and call this show done

    HoD – with cd doing ehh and cult being DOA, more likely renewal

    90210- I’d say a final shortened season but after a .2… Maybe best to end this now … More likely cancellation. The show is called 90210 and yet they completely lost all times with the original cast. Bring back some original characters and maybe just maybe they can get a final season

    The cw has big problems, I’d get rid of all these shows but the cw can’t launch that many new shows but maybe it should.

  • feinn

    Looking back now..secret circle season 2….is a risk worth taking
    …too bad :’(

  • JJA

    I expect the CW to cancel 3-4 shows come May. If the best they can do is a .4, a reality show can pull in those numbers at only a fraction of the production cost.

    90210, TCD, Cult and B&TB will ALL be canceled. None of these shows seems to be huge download hits, so there is no reason to keep any of them.

    Nikita and HOD will be back, and NOT just for syndication purposes. Nikita and HOD now have better ratings than all the bubble shows (save B&TB, which only does marginally better). Also, people should stop assuming Nikita will end next year. It’s managed to get this far, it might as well get a 5th season, albeit a partial one.

    Also, regarding the pilots, The Tomorrow People seems to be the most promising. They just cast Peyton List and Luke Mitchell as leads, which is really cool. Both these actors are great.

    The Selection sounds good too. I hear they’re filming it in Hungary, which would be really cool if they take advantage of the Eastern European atmosphere. No word on casting yet, but Aimee Teagarden isn’t in it anymore.

  • Dave

    I’ve noticed that The CW has stepped up their game in terms of promoting Nikita and Hart of Dixie. They just released two extended promos for both shows.

    I think The CW should just renew these two together and at least let the fans relax a bit. Let Beauty, Carrie, Cult and 90210 duke it out till May.

  • Flopincent Keller

    LMAO so moral model beasties are actually calling people idiots now? How far we’ve come. And your excuses just get even more hilarious! Maybe the 0.5 is making them desperate.

    “Since Beauty has its own fan base, why does everyone think it will do worse on fridays?”

    LOOOL. It has its own fanbase? If it had its own fanbase it would be pulling SPN numbers, which are recently the same numbers of its lead-in Arrow. By own fanbase you probably mean a handful of girls who comment and vote multiple times on polls to make it seem like Batb has a huge following. What I see is a lead-in dependent show which lost half of its audience in the first 3 episodes. FACT. And the 0.5 would fall to 0.3 if the show was moved to a Friday, there isn’t reason to believe it would stay at a 5 or even rise, and even on a Friday they wouldn’t keep a 0.3 show.

    I’m yet to see Batb tank to a 0.4 before its series finale. What a pathetic and idiotic show, the CW needs to get rid of it and give space to a new good show.

  • scifi

    Deadline thinks that BATB will be renewed:
    “Of the rest, Hart Of Dixie‘s recent season high may have clinched it a renewal, with Beauty And The Beast also looking hopeful.”

  • Angellic .T.

    the secret circle should be renewed for sure the ratings way better than B&TB and i mean dat in da nicest way possible

  • Olka

    @Angellic. T.
    Stop writhing posts about TSC.
    You know it won’t make it renewal.

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