NBC: ‘Smash’ Is Likely To Be Canceled

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

This is a special “short week” holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it “likely to be canceled”. Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from “certain to be renewed” to “toss up”. As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old”  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.


  • :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

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