NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Brian J

    Here’s a good question: why isn’t NBC putting “Smash” on Thursdays and “Hannibal” on Tuesdays? Short of some recovery, it IS bound to be cancelled. NBC’s Tuesday comedies are going to see some increase unless “The Voice” tanks upon its return, and for its premiere, it could have a two-hour episode of that show. And even if nothing goes right and Tuesday drops, the competition is still less intense on that night.

  • Oliver

    @Brian J
    Because NBC are fools.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Did you change Up All Night’s status too? It’s hard to ignore the behind-the-scenes troubles it’s having, and it looks like it might not even air another episode.

    I sound like a broken record, but I still think NBC should renew their 5 strong dramas, along with Parks, Community and Go On, and then have a major restructuring of the comedy lineup next season. Maybe even move Chicago Fire to Thursdays so they can have one strong drama on each weeknight (Revolution-Mon, Parenthood-Tues, SVU-Wed, Chicago Fire-Thurs, Grimm-Fri).

  • mando

    NBC doesn’t know what programs people like.
    And doesn’t know how to schedule making stupid line-up

  • DanaK

    Thursday seems to be the more prestigious night so I would guess they want to put Hannibal there as a marque show. Or since they were thinking of maybe putting it on during the summer, they don’t have high expectations for it, especially since they are debuting it in April and it will go towards the end of June. Maybe they still want to protect Smash and having it on the same night as The Voice might do that.

  • Matt

    NBC just can’t get it. They need to completely wipe out their entire Thursday night lineup with new shows in each slot to start fresh and anew.

    NBC should grant Parks & Rec. and Community a final season on Fridays starting Fall 2013 for a Friday night comedy night from 8-9.

    Wow. so surprised at Go On. It started so well and was doing fine in the 5-6M range and 2.0 vecinity and now it has just plummeted.

    Smash do surprisingly well in viewers for the superb lack of promotion it received. 4.8M… was expecting around 4.

    Expecting a 1.4 and 4.5M for Hannibal premiere.

    Revolution will probably flop when it returns – have seen zero, zilch promotion.

    FRIDAY schedule for FALL 2013: (hopeful)

    8:00 – Park and Recreation
    8:30 – Community
    9:00 – Hannibal / (or new drama shall Hannibal flop)
    10:00 – Grimm

  • Chris

    It really hilarious how bad NBC has screwed up. At the start of the season it looked like their fortunes were improving. Now they’re worse off than they’ve ever been.

  • who

    I don’t know how a show that has offended fans and pissed off (excuse my language) many of the fans who have stuck by the past two seasons gets automatically renewed even with flip flop ratings. (Also note I’m seeing fellow fan reactions to the show first hand) I don’t think it should be an automatic thing but who am I? Exactly. I mean, I’ve stuck by SVU all this time as well, but I’m even beginning to wonder if keeping it on even longer is a good thing. If it’s being renewed maybe tie up some loose ends next season and wrap it up? Trying to be as positive as possible here.

  • John_M

    It’s amazing how everyone here is an expert at scheduling what when – how come no network has picked up you geniuses?

  • merrrranga

    i’m sad for TNN. it’s an intelligent comedy that hits on divisive issues without simply bashing one side. too bad…

  • PurpleDrazi

    Nothing illustrates the disaster that is NBC better than the renew/cancel index. Yikes!

  • DD

    NBC need a half decent drama each night next season to try and support the over shows:

    Mon – Revolution
    Tue – Parenthood
    Wed – SVU
    Thur – Chicago Fire
    Fri – Grimm

  • Shana

    I only care here about Chicago fire & SVU and both shows are here to stay…

  • Data

    @merrrranga: TNN is divisive? Why, because it features a homosexual couple as its lead characters? Come on, give me a break. It’s time America starts to realize how overhyped Ryan Murphy is as a writer and show creator – The New Normal is simply not funny or interesting enough. Sorry.

    I agree with the idea that Hannibal should get Smash’s time slot – it’ll die on Thursday’s. And Mads Mikkelsen deserves better than that.

  • Funeral Dinner

    Likely cancelled? I think you’re being optimistic!

  • senor chang

    @Chris

    I think the biggest problem is how they underestimated their reliance on The Voice. Things will look up once it returns. The bigger question is how they can get viewers to stick around when it’s not on the air.

    Renew the five core dramas (Revolution, Parenthood, SVU, Chicago Fire, Grimm), and give Parenthood a full season.
    Renew Parks/Community for final seasons (or replace Community with Go On, whatever) and stick them on Thursdays at 8: no new comedy will get off the ground with Big Bang in the slot.

    Relaunch the rest of Thursdays with two new comedies at 9 and 9:30 and something at 10 that will stabilize the time slot. Maybe Hannibal will do better than expected and bring some new life to the night.

    Invest heavily in a handful of new shows and veterans, instead of committing half-heartedly to everything and throwing stuff on the schedule where you see fit. NBC’s big problem this season is that they’re spreading their promotional resources far too thin. I’m not saying that they have to necessarily cut back on midseason programming–there should just be an internal consistency and logic to it. Might want to take some pointers from how CBS schedules: they’ve had a horrid year for new shows but the infrastructure is so strong that they’re shaking the failures off for the most part.

    Don’t waste The Voice. It’s arguably your only legitimate hit right now. Use it well. Might want to think of slotting in a drama at 9 instead of comedies.

    Wednesdays will be tricky: either you keep SVU/Chicago where they are or move one of them to a different night. I say keep both right where they are. The 8 hour is going to be a huge problem, too. Reality won’t work there, not with Survivor and X-Factor present. Every comedy NBC puts there seems to flop, too. Maybe just going with a drama would be best. Parenthood?

    This is pure conjecture on my part, but I *COULD* see a 2013-14 fall schedule looking something like this:

    Monday
    8-10 The Voice
    10 NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    8-9 The Voice
    9 NEW DRAMA
    10 Revolution (to be honest, I’m not quite sure what the best place for this is. nothing on NBC’s schedule really fits it well, but it’s not strong enough to anchor a night, either. so.)

    Wednesday
    8 Parenthood
    9 Law and Order: SVU
    10 Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8 Community
    8:30 Parks and Recreation
    9 NEW COMEDY
    9:30 NEW COMEDY
    10 Hannibal/NEW DRAMA–worst case scenario, we see Rock Center for another year

    Friday (I think this would work pretty well, rob suggested it and I like the idea)
    8 Dateline
    10 Grimm

    Sunday
    Men in tights carrying balls around a field

  • senor chang

    Incredibly asinine to leave Hannibal to die on Thursdays. It looks like it could be huge with some support.

    Or maybe I just like the idea of a Revolution/Hannibal pairing (not like that’s going to happen, though).

  • toucan

    Matt
    Smash received a ton of promotion. They had a panel at winter TCAs, not typical for a returning show. There were ads on every entertainment site I read. They’ve been releasing casting info for months. There were magazine covers. They hired an Oscar winner for a guest star arc. They released the first half of the premier in the hopes of generating buzz. The first season was available OnDemand. Short of robo calling the entire US population there wasn’t much else NBC could do to promote Smash.

  • rob60990

    Smash is almost certain to go below a 1.0 tonight.

  • steve sanders

    NBC…….N othing B ut C ancellations

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