NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Honey Badger

    Looks like NBC low ratings continue. So many shows with low ratings, almost all of NBC television shows are cancel worthy.

    Without The Voice averaged 4.3, and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2, NBC is in big trouble. And NBC should know that it is inevitable that The Voice will drop in the future, as all the oversaturated singing and talent shows ratings are dropping (The X Factor & American Idol keeps hitting lows and keeps falling)

    NBC needs to do something big now. Does anybody have any ideas?
    What would you do if you were the President of NBC?

    NBC Whitney 1.1 18-49 Rating 3.26 Viewers (millions)
    NBC Guys With Kids 1.1/3 2.96
    NBC Law & Order; SVU 1.7/4 5.71
    NBC Chicago Fire 1.9/5 6.42
    “On NBC, Whitney tied its series low with a 1.1 down 8 percent from last week’s 1.2 adults 18-49 rating. Guys With Kids garnered a 1.1 up 10 percent from last week’s series low 1.0 adults 18-49 rating. Law & Order SVU, notched a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating up 13 percent from last week’s 1.5. Chicago Fire earned a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating, even with last week.”

    I have Updated latest NBC shows 18-49 ratings according to last night’s results:
    “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.1, Whitney 1.1, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.7, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2
    Additional, NBC needs to do something about Friday, Saturday and Sunday and their cutting cost low rated shows, NBC looks like they have just given up. Look at what NBC did with their complete weekend line up of shows: Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4

    Also what is scary for NBC is that they only have 2 shows in the top 25, and they are numbers 23 & 24, and number 23 “ The Office” is in its last season.
    Primetime Broadcast Adults 18-49 Viewers for the week ending February 17, 2013:
    Rank Shows R=Repeat S=Special P=Premiere Net 18-49 rating 18-49 Viewers (000)
    1 Big Bang Theory, THE-02/14 CBS 5.5 6995
    2 American Idol-WEDNESDAY-02/13 FOX 4.3 5458
    3 Modern Family-02/13 ABC 3.8 4787
    4 Two and a Half Men-02/14 CBS 3.8 4780
    5 American Idol-THURSDAY-02/14 FOX 3.7 4717
    6 2 Broke Girls-02/11 CBS 3.6 4526
    7 How I Met Your Mother-02/11 CBS 3.2 4099
    8 MIKE & Molly-02/11 CBS 3.0 3763
    9 Person Of Interest-02/14 CBS 3.0 3759
    10 Rules of Engagement-02/11 CBS 2.8 3517
    11 Grey’S ANATOMY-02/14 ABC 2.8 3491
    12 BACHELOR, THE-02/11 ABC 2.7 3479
    13 Scandal-02/14 ABC 2.7 3467
    14 Amazing Race 22-02/17 P CBS 2.5 3162
    15 FOLLOWING, THE-02/11 FOX 2.4 3093
    16 Family Guy-02/17 FOX 2.4 3043
    17 SURVIVOR: CARAMOAN-02/13 P CBS 2.4 3034
    18 Once Upon A Time-02/17 ABC 2.4 2987
    19 ELEMENTARY-02/14 CBS 2.3 2884
    20 BONES-02/11 FOX 2.2 2834
    21 Hawaii Five-0-02/11 CBS 2.1 2705
    22 Suburgatory-02/13 ABC 2.1 2670
    23 OFFICE-02/14 NBC 2.0 2583
    24 Biggest Loser 14-02/11 NBC 2.0 2579
    25 Simpsons-02/17 FOX 2.0

    This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC, and harder decisions to make on CBS . The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

  • Oliver

    I’m convinced there’s a conspiracy within NBC’s comedy development department dept to tank new shows to get Community renewed every season.

    They’re doing a great job. Every year the new shows need to tank harder, yet they succeed.

  • Holly

    @Oliver,

    I’m convinced there’s a conspiracy within NBC’s comedy development department dept to tank new shows to get Community renewed every season.

    That’s the best conspiracy theory I’ve heard yet. :)

  • Amanda

    Love this show!! Need to definitely look at the whole week and pair the right shows up together!

  • B Saget

    I hope NBC airs the 1 episode in multicam so i can LOL hard at it.
    What a joke that show has become. I remember watching the promos a few years back and thinking. “wow this has so much potential” ummmmmm nope. Besides Arnett and Applegate. (& Jason Lee) the cast has been a joke. I’m glad it’s done.

    NBC sucks

  • Irene

    I watched all the episodes of New Normal on Hulu and got a kick out out of it. I actually like it better than Modern Family. Oh well. It has bleak outlook.

  • Ben

    NBC 2013-2013

    Monday
    8-The Voice
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    8-Community
    8:30-Parks and Recreation
    9-The Voice
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8-Chicago Fire
    9-Law and Order: SVU
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Thursday
    8-The Biggest Loser
    9:30-NEW COMEDY (MJF)
    10-Chicago Fire

    Friday
    8-Dateline NBC
    9-Grimm
    10-Rock Center with Brian Williams

    Midseason: Betty White’s of their Rockers, Whitney, Go On, Guys With Kids, Parenthood, NEW FAMILY ORIENTED COMEDY

    Comments on this schedule are welcome

  • Tony JJ

    my predictions

    Canceled:
    The New Normal
    Whitney
    Guys with Kids
    1600 Penn
    Smash
    Deception
    Up All Night
    Community

    Renewed:
    Go On (13 episode renewal with possible back 9)
    Parks and Recreation
    Grimm
    Parenthood (Full 22 episode season, possible 24 episodes) – NBC NEEDS this solid performer for the whole season
    Revolution
    SVU
    Chicago Fire

    Guys with Kids and/or Whitney may get a pity renewal for schedule spackle.

  • Honey Badger

    What else can go wrong for NBC? Facebook blocks access to NBC.com after reports site is infected (see below)

    Who is in charge at NBC? How can all these things keep happening?
    What would you do if you were President of NBC?

    What else can go wrong for NBC? NBC low ratings continue. So many shows with low ratings, almost all of NBC television shows are cancel worthy. I give you Bill Gorman comments: 1. “And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.” 2. ““the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com”
    When looks at the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, and how the other shows have performed: the expensive “ Smash “tanked, “ Do No Harm “which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks, “Deception” tanked, and so many NBC shows have low and dropping ratings.

    Facebook blocks access to NBC.com after reports site is infected
    BOSTON | Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:26pm EST
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/us-nbc-facebook-virus-idUSBRE91K1C720130221
    (Reuters) – Facebook Inc has blocked users from accessing the NBC.com website following reports that the site is infected with a computer virus.

    Facebook users were told “This link has been reported as abusive” on Thursday when they attempted to access the NBC.com website.

    Several security bloggers warned on Thursday that the site was infected with malicious software, advising computer users to avoid the site.

    Officials with NBC could not immediately be reached for comment.

    (Reporting By Jim Finkle and Jennifer Saba; Editing by Gary Hill)

  • Nick

    @Ben

    What possible reason could you have for renewing Guys With Kids?

  • Ben

    @Nick
    It was just a filler for 10 episodes or so. I know the ratings are awful, but all other comedies are just as bad so holding it for mid season couldn’t hurt. Also, the shows next season will flop even harder due to the upcoming decline of The Voice.

  • NBC is awesome

    NBC should hold Parenthood for mid season. It’s a fantastic show, but it isn’t a strong preformed, it’s solid, but not that strong. You can count on it for a 1.6, which doesn’t help NBC much. They should put CF on tuesday at 9 after TV, then a new drama at ten. Then hold P-hood for sundays at 10 after football.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    Have you checked NBC latest ratings? Did you see how many shows are in the low 1?s or below in the 18-49 ratings? I am not looking at seasons ratings; I am looking at where they are now, trends, and where they are heading. And yes they are heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.

    Yes. Have you? Here’s the weekly ratings comparison between the networks, post-football/post-The Voice

    NBC – 2.2, 1.2, 1.7, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3 (average 1.5)

    CW – 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6 (average 0.6)

    NBC is doing absolutely awful (falling to 5th behind Univsion for February sweeps for the first time ever) and is still crushing the CW.

    rest of your post

    TL;DR

    I’m not sure why you insist on writing 500+ word comments.

  • Oliver

    I’d wager 1.6+ is looking pretty good to NBC right about now.

    If you’re renewing a show for spackle, Community seems like the obvious choice. It’s in the toughest timeslot and there’s a financial incentive to get it closer to 100 for syndication.

  • Ultima

    @James
    I wonder if they (NBC) will take these “full” season numbers into account, or if they will just guide themselves for the current year.

    Ratings in the winter/spring are typically more meaningful than fall ratings (e.g. the cancellations of Outsourced and The Secret Circle).

  • Ultima

    @Aeiouy
    Keeping more shows for more than one season is not a guarantee for success but it gives you a better shot than an entire new production who doesn’t even know what they are doing for the first season

    If the production team doesn’t know what they’re doing for the entire first season, then the network obviously made a huge mistake picking up their show in the first place.

    How many of the best sitcoms in history peaked in their first year.

    How many of the best sitcoms had bad ratings in their first year?

    Yes, there are going to be exceptions (most notably Cheers) that started poorly, but managed to become huge hits; however, most hit shows actually have really good first seasons and then continue to climb and peak later on.

  • Ultima

    @NBC is Awesome
    NBC should hold Parenthood for mid season. It’s a fantastic show, but it isn’t a strong preformed, it’s solid, but not that strong. You can count on it for a 1.6, which doesn’t help NBC much.

    Last season Parenthood had a 1.9, this season a 1.8. It’s performing better than NBC’s scripted average.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Ultima. Thanks for proving my point. NBC they are Heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.

    As you pointed out: “NBC is doing absolutely awful (falling to 5th behind Univsion for February sweeps for the first time ever) and is still crushing the CW.” Yes they are crushing CW but they are in 5th place, and have low ratings and are heading into CW territory. I never thought a broadcast network would come close to the ridiculous low ratings of CW, or see any major network with so many shows in the low 1’s in ratings.

    I give you Bill Gorman comments: 1. “And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.” 2. ““the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com”
    Look at NBC shows under at 1.5 rating or under. 18-49 rating, wow, I never thought I would see this other than the CW.: American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.0, Whitney 1.1, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1, Sunday NBC Dateline 1.0, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Parks & Recreation 1.5,

    NBC a feast for the the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear who has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC, and harder decisions to make on CBS . The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

    Ultima
    Posted February 21, 2013 at 4:46 PM
    @Honey Badger “Have you checked NBC latest ratings? Did you see how many shows are in the low 1?s or below in the 18-49 ratings? I am not looking at seasons ratings; I am looking at where they are now, trends, and where they are heading. And yes they are heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.”

    Yes. Have you? Here’s the weekly ratings comparison between the networks, post-football/post-The Voice

    NBC – 2.2, 1.2, 1.7, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3 (average 1.5)

    CW – 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6 (average 0.6)

    NBC is doing absolutely awful (falling to 5th behind Univsion for February sweeps for the first time ever) and is still crushing the CW.

  • Honey Badger

    Below are network 18 – 49 ratings from November 2012 and network ratings from February 2013..
    NBC is trending from a 3.2 18-49 rating average to a 1.2 18-49 rating, that is what we call crashing, bombing, tanking.

    2012-2013 Season: NBC Leads Among Adults 18-49, While CBS is Number 1 With Total Viewers Through Week 8 Ending November 18, 2012
    Written By Amanda Kondolojy
    “After eight weeks of the 2012-2013 broadcast television season (through Sunday, November 18, 2012), NBC is in first place among adults 18-49, with a 3.2 rating average. CBS was second, with a 2.8 rating average. ABC was third with a 2.6, FOX was fourth with a 2.4, and The CW finished last with a 0.8 adults 18-49 rating average”

    NBC RESULTS FOR THE PRIMETIME WEEK OF FEB. 4-10
    WEEKLY AVERAGES
    Average rating, share and audience in each category
    ADULTS 18-49
    CBS 3.4/9, 4.3 million
    Fox 2.2/6, 2.8 million
    ABC 1.9/5, 2.4 million
    NBC 1.2/3, 1.6 million
    CW 0.7/2, 0.8 million

  • HV

    Here are my predictions for renewal/cancelation.
    CANCEL: Up All Night, 1600 Penn, Whitney, Guys With Kids, Deception
    RENEW: Revolution, Go On, Chicago Fire, Law & Order: SVU, Grimm, Parenthood, The New Normal, Smash, Parks & Recreation, Community

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