NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    NBC they are Heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.

    Nonsense. The CW is actually in danger of not existing in a few years; NBC will be around for decades to come.

    I never thought a broadcast network would come close to the ridiculous low ratings of CW

    NBC is nowhere close to the CW! Their low week is a 1.2. When was the last time the CW had a week like that? Fall 2009 – and the only reason they did is because they stopped broadcasting on Sunday night!

    Your assumption that things are going to get drastically worse for NBC is asinine. You do understand that they have a sigificant portion of their programming sitting on the sidelines right now, right? They have three hours of The Voice, Revolution, Grimm and The Celebrity Apprentice all returning next month.

    Yes, NBC’s comedy situation is completely horrid. Yes, it was a really stupid idea to bench most of their top programming during February sweeps – a decision which rewarded them with fifth place. No, this does not mean a comparison to the CW is anyting but absurd. NBC is averaging a 2.5 this season, the CW a 0.7!

    see any major network with so many shows in the low 1’s in ratings.

    Your lack of foresight doesn’t excuse bad arguments. NBC only had one sitcom average a 2+ rating last season. Did you really think all of those shows would have a huge ratings surge?

    NBC is trending from a 3.2 18-49 rating average to a 1.2 18-49 rating, that is what we call crashing, bombing, tanking.

    It’s also called comparing a Live+7 season average to a Live+SD rating, which is useless.

    But yes, they’ve really gone downhill since the fall; if only they had like six hours of high rated programming on tap for next month, their ratings might go up.

    I assume that when they put up a 2.0 rating or something the final week of March, you’ll rave about how NBC is trending back towards #1. Right?

    Your inability to apply any critical thinking to this is exhausting.

  • Doug

    You work for NBC, Ultima?

    I’m not sure why Parenthood is a perennial bubble show for NBC. I don’t see a 2013/2014 without Parenthood on the schedule.

    NBC might end up being the network that breaks the R/C index if only because, as ratings converge toward 1.0, there is just less and less of a difference between how these series are doing (as the GWK/Whitney example shows). They could conceivably drop everything below a 1.08 on this list. The CW shows a similar problem.

    I’ve asked before, and I’ll throw it out there again: at what point does everybody guess that ratings will stop falling? Surely NBC must be somewhere near that point right now as there is so little room left to fall.

  • Ultima

    @Doug
    You work for NBC, Ultima?

    Ha! No.

    The NBC broadcast network sucks, their excellent streaming of London 2012 is the only reason I won’t go on a tirade about NBC Sports – they’re getting better, albeit slowly. I don’t actually watch any of their other programming.

  • Jon

    Smash has such a limited viewing market. I won’t say anything bad about the show, just that I have never watched it, and don’t plan on it. I have no interest in the content. I’m sure it’s a good show in its own right, but I will never know.

  • AndyShep

    Page after page of dialogue of Brenda Messing being boring and unappealing. Women are portrayed as long winded, boring, sexless pains in the butt rather than sexy, charismatic, interesting and exciting. Get a straight writer PLEASE, as an adviser, preferably someone from the early episodes of Entourage.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Doug, great comments, I agree with all of them.

    I like your “You work for NBC, Ultima?” comment.
    I have thought the same thing. Ultima will vigorously defend NBC in the face of overwhelming evidence, objective reasoning does not work with Ultima – I have tried with tons of data. And using words like trends sets Ultima off on some illogical rant to defend NBC. I think from now on I will just read Ultima’s comments and laugh at how amusing they are, at first I thought Ultima was just a slow at getting it or just being funny, but now I think Ultima must work for NBC in some capacity. Ultima thinks just like the executives at NBC do,Ultima = proud as peacock.

    “NBC might end up being the network that breaks the R/C index if only because, as ratings converge toward 1.0, there is just less and less of a difference between how these series are doing (as the GWK/Whitney example shows). They could conceivably drop everything below a 1.08 on this list. The CW shows a similar problem.”
    I agree. As I have said before I think almost all of NBC television’s shows are in cancellation territory, and I am shocked how many shows are doing so badly and keep dropping. NBC is in such bad shape it is hard to predict which shows will be cancelled. That is the reason I think NBC has and to do something drastic. They should drop everything below a 1.08 on this list which is 11 shows, add to that The Office final season, and that is 12 shows that should be gone next year or their ratings will keep dropping.
    Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
    Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
    Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
    Smash 0.76
    The New Normal 0.79
    Guys With Kids 0.80
    1600 Penn 0.82
    Whitney 0.87
    Deception 0.88
    Go On 0.92
    30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
    Community 0.98
    Parenthood* 1.08
    Parks & Recreation 1.12
    Law & Order: SVU 1.14
    The Office final season 1.32
    Chicago Fire 1.33
    Up All Night pending
    Grimm (F) pending
    Revolution pending

    “I’ve asked before, and I’ll throw it out there again: at what point does everybody guess that ratings will stop falling? Surely NBC must be somewhere near that point right now as there is so little room left to fall.”
    With NBC overall rating at a 1.2 18-49 overall rating, and falling ratings on most shows, it is hard to predict where the ratings stop dropping. Viewers clearly do not like NBC shows and have tuned them out, once viewers have stopped watching a show they rarely come back.
    I am afraid the overall rating for NBC will only stop falling is when “The Voice “comes back. But that will not be enough to drive the other NBC shows ratings up very much. Once people stop watching a television show it is hard to get them to come back. And I think “The Voice” ratings will drop like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows.

    NBC shows 18-49 ratings, almost all of them are in cancellation territory: This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC.
    Take away The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2, and NBC only has 3 shows above a 2.9 rating – and one of them The Office is in it’s final season. Ouch
    Look at NBC shows under at 1.5 rating or under. 18-49 rating, wow, I never thought I would see this other than the CW.: American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.0, Whitney 1.1, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1, Sunday NBC Dateline 1.0, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Parks & Recreation 1.5,
    Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Law & Order: SVU 1.7, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2
    Additional, NBC needs to do something about Friday, Saturday and Sunday and their cutting cost low rated shows, NBC looks like they have just given up. Look at what NBC did with their complete weekend line up of shows: Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4
    NBC RESULTS FOR THE PRIMETIME WEEK OF FEB. 4-10
    WEEKLY AVERAGES
    Average rating, share and audience in each category
    ADULTS 18-49
    CBS 3.4/9, 4.3 million
    Fox 2.2/6, 2.8 million
    ABC 1.9/5, 2.4 million
    NBC 1.2/3, 1.6 million
    CW 0.7/2, 0.8 million

  • Honey Badger

    opps above should say: 1.9 not 2.9

    Take away The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2, and NBC only has 3 shows above a 1.9 rating – and one of them The Office is in it’s final season. Ouch

  • Honey Badger

    oops above should say: 1.9 not 2.9

    Take away The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2, and NBC only has 3 shows above a 1.9 rating – and one of them The Office is in it’s final season. Ouch

  • Honey Badger

    fixed

    @ Doug, great comments, I agree with all of them.

    I like your “You work for NBC, Ultima?” comment.
    I have thought the same thing. Ultima will vigorously defend NBC in the face of overwhelming evidence, objective reasoning does not work with Ultima – I have tried with tons of data. And using words like trends sets Ultima off on some illogical rant to defend NBC. I think from now on I will just read Ultima’s comments and laugh at how amusing they are, at first I thought Ultima was just a slow at getting it or just being funny, but now I think Ultima must work for NBC in some capacity. Ultima thinks just like the executives at NBC do,Ultima = proud as peacock.

    “NBC might end up being the network that breaks the R/C index if only because, as ratings converge toward 1.0, there is just less and less of a difference between how these series are doing (as the GWK/Whitney example shows). They could conceivably drop everything below a 1.08 on this list. The CW shows a similar problem.”

    I agree. As I have said before I think almost all of NBC television’s shows are in cancellation territory, and I am shocked how many shows are doing so badly and keep dropping. NBC is in such bad shape it is hard to predict which shows will be cancelled. That is the reason I think NBC has and to do something drastic. They should drop everything below a 1.08 on this list which is 11 shows, add to that The Office final season, and that is 12 shows that should be gone next year or their ratings will keep dropping.
    Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
    Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
    Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
    Smash 0.76
    The New Normal 0.79
    Guys With Kids 0.80
    1600 Penn 0.82
    Whitney 0.87
    Deception 0.88
    Go On 0.92
    30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
    Community 0.98
    Parenthood* 1.08
    Parks & Recreation 1.12
    Law & Order: SVU 1.14
    The Office final season 1.32
    Chicago Fire 1.33
    Up All Night pending
    Grimm (F) pending
    Revolution pending

    “I’ve asked before, and I’ll throw it out there again: at what point does everybody guess that ratings will stop falling? Surely NBC must be somewhere near that point right now as there is so little room left to fall.”

    With NBC overall rating at a 1.2 18-49 overall rating, and falling ratings on most shows, it is hard to predict where the ratings stop dropping. Viewers clearly do not like NBC shows and have tuned them out, once viewers have stopped watching a show they rarely come back.
    I am afraid the overall rating for NBC will only stop falling is when “The Voice “comes back. But that will not be enough to drive the other NBC shows ratings up very much. Once people stop watching a television show it is hard to get them to come back. And I think “The Voice” ratings will drop like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows.

    NBC shows 18-49 ratings, almost all of them are in cancellation territory: This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC.

    Alert !! Take away The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2, and NBC only has 3 shows above a 1.9 rating – and one of them The Office is in it’s final season. Ouch !!! Yikes !!! Red Alert !!

    Look at NBC shows under at 1.5 rating or under. 18-49 rating, wow, I never thought I would see this other than the CW.: American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.0, Whitney 1.1, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1, Sunday NBC Dateline 1.0, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Parks & Recreation 1.5,
    Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Law & Order: SVU 1.7, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2
    Additional, NBC needs to do something about Friday, Saturday and Sunday and their cutting cost low rated shows, NBC looks like they have just given up. Look at what NBC did with their complete weekend line up of shows: Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4
    NBC RESULTS FOR THE PRIMETIME WEEK OF FEB. 4-10
    WEEKLY AVERAGES
    Average rating, share and audience in each category
    ADULTS 18-49
    CBS 3.4/9, 4.3 million
    Fox 2.2/6, 2.8 million
    ABC 1.9/5, 2.4 million
    NBC 1.2/3, 1.6 million
    CW 0.7/2, 0.8 million

  • Fred

    I’m also suprised at how hard and fast NBC’s forturnes have fell.
    I just read a very long and detailed article in TV GUIDE MAGAZINE about many favored pilots for next season. A record number are expected to be airing on the 5 networks.
    NBC most likely will cancel a big chunk of their current line up to make room for new pilots.

  • Oliver

    I boldly predict Community will be renewed.

    Its ratings are roughly on par with NBC’s other non-Parks renewable comedies, it’s doing far better in 18-34 than the others (mid-1s vs high 0s), it’s in a death slot facing TBBT and Idol, an extra 13 episodes will help for selling it into syndication (which NBC would benefit from as co-producer), and its ratings might benefit from Comedy Central promoting and airing reruns.

    Feel free to laugh at me if it gets 0.7 tonight (although I’d guess its ratings go up a little without Valentine’s).

  • Oliver

    I boldly predict Community will be renewed.

    Its ratings are roughly on par with NBC’s other non-Parks renewable comedies, it’s doing far better in 18-34 than the others (mid-1s vs high 0s), it’s in a death slot facing TBBT and Idol, an extra 13 episodes will help for selling it into syndication (which NBC would benefit from as co-producer), and its ratings might benefit from Comedy Central promoting and airing reruns.

    Feel free to laugh at me if it gets 0.7 in 18-49 tonight (although I’d guess its ratings go up a little without Valentine’s).

  • mwc

    At this point maybe NBC should just become the second chance network. Pick up stuff that gets higher ratings at other networks but still got cancelled. They could run CSI:NY on Thursdays against CSI and hope to capture the confused demographic, probably be higher ratings than whatever they replace the office with.

    I still think CBS stole NBC’s mojo when CBS picked up JAG which CBS ran as a hit for years before spawn 2 bigger hits. Maybe NBC can steal it back by grabbing the Mentalist or Last Resort.

  • Michael

    “Smash” just lost to TBS’s comedy hour of “Cougar Town” and “Big Bang Theory” re-run. In other words, “Leno defeats Conan despite inferior lead in program.” And that headline only cost NBC $45 Million.

  • Oliver

    …and I was wrong. Community gets 1.1 in 18-49, Parks gets 1.3 and 1.4.

  • Ben

    NBC has to redesign their schedule. No more comedy night on Thursday, or at least not against TBBT and TAAHM. The Biggest Loser should get a 1 hour slot for the whole year, with an extended length season (September to end of January) and a shorter season (March to end of May). Also, the Thursday 10pm slot needs to be replaced with a veteran performing drama, like Parenthood.

  • STEVE
  • STEVE

    @ ultima:

    You’re wrong. CW beat NBC in sweeps and NBC is now LAST!

    Ultima
    Posted February 21, 2013 at 9:07 PM
    @Honey Badger
    NBC they are Heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.

    Nonsense. The CW is actually in danger of not existing in a few years; NBC will be around for decades to come.

    I never thought a broadcast network would come close to the ridiculous low ratings of CW

    NBC is nowhere close to the CW! Their low week is a 1.2. When was the last time the CW had a week like that? Fall 2009 – and the only reason they did is because they stopped broadcasting on Sunday night!

    Your assumption that things are going to get drastically worse for NBC is asinine. You do understand that they have a sigificant portion of their programming sitting on the sidelines right now, right? They have three hours of The Voice, Revolution, Grimm and The Celebrity Apprentice all returning next month.

    Yes, NBC’s comedy situation is completely horrid. Yes, it was a really stupid idea to bench most of their top programming during February sweeps – a decision which rewarded them with fifth place. No, this does not mean a comparison to the CW is anyting but absurd. NBC is averaging a 2.5 this season, the CW a 0.7!

    see any major network with so many shows in the low 1’s in ratings.

    Your lack of foresight doesn’t excuse bad arguments. NBC only had one sitcom average a 2+ rating last season. Did you really think all of those shows would have a huge ratings surge?

    NBC is trending from a 3.2 18-49 rating average to a 1.2 18-49 rating, that is what we call crashing, bombing, tanking.

    It’s also called comparing a Live+7 season average to a Live+SD rating, which is useless.

    But yes, they’ve really gone downhill since the fall; if only they had like six hours of high rated programming on tap for next month, their ratings might go up.

    I assume that when they put up a 2.0 rating or something the final week of March, you’ll rave about how NBC is trending back towards #1. Right?

    Your inability to apply any critical thinking to this is exhausting.

  • Holly

    @Steve,

    You’re wrong. CW beat NBC in sweeps and NBC is now LAST!

    No. The fourth network that beat NBC was Univision, not the CW.

  • Honey Badger

    to everyone that post comments at tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com , thanks for all your great comments, they are informative, educational and fun

    @ Doug, Thanks, great comments, I agree with all of them

    @ Fred, Thanks, great comments
    Fred
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 7:54 AM
    I’m also suprised at how hard and fast NBC’s forturnes have fell.
    I just read a very long and detailed article in TV GUIDE MAGAZINE about many favored pilots for next season. A record number are expected to be airing on the 5 networks.
    NBC most likely will cancel a big chunk of their current line up to make room for new pilots.

    @ Oliver, Thanks great comment
    Oliver
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 8:27 AM
    @Brian J
    Because NBC are fools.

    @ mando, thanks great comments
    mando
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 8:33 AM
    NBC doesn’t know what programs people like.
    And doesn’t know how to schedule making stupid line-up

    @ Michael, Thanks, great post
    Michael
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 8:04 AM
    “Smash” just lost to TBS’s comedy hour of “Cougar Town” and “Big Bang Theory” re-run.

    @ mwc, Thanks, great comment
    mwc
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 8:00 AM
    At this point maybe NBC should just become the second chance network. Pick up stuff that gets higher ratings at other networks but still got cancelled. They could run CSI:NY on Thursdays against CSI and hope to capture the confused demographic, probably be higher ratings than whatever they replace the office with.
    I still think CBS stole NBC’s mojo when CBS picked up JAG which CBS ran as a hit for years before spawn 2 bigger hits. Maybe NBC can steal it back by grabbing the Mentalist or Last Resort.

    @ STEVE, Thanks, great post, great article, I especially like Bob Greenblatt quote, sounds like he has given up
    STEVE
    Posted February 22, 2013 at 8:34 AM
    NBC IS NOW THE WORST NETWORK!!!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/21/nbc-sweeps-fifth-place-ratings-univision_n_2735466.html

    NBC Sweeps: Network Falls To Fifth Place In TV Ratings Behind Univision For February
    The Huffington Post | By Chris Harnick Posted: 02/21/2013 4:27 pm EST
    Bob Greenblatt, chairman of NBC Entertainment.” “You get the feeling that it’s never gonna be possible to move the needle again,” Greenblatt said. “You just keep fighting against the forces that are coming at you in a crowded environment, with more programming on more networks than in the history of our business, and you start to feel like it’s never gonna be possible to do anything dramatic.”

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