NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Honey
    So sad you think and an argument and a discussion are the same thing

    It’s sad that I’m educated enough to know that words have more than one meaning?

    argument
    noun
    2. a discussion involving differing points of view; debate: They were deeply involved in an argument about inflation.

    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/argument

    It’s not even some archaic use of the word, it’s a very common usage!

  • Holly

    You two do realize you’re both being ridiculous, right?

  • Honey Badger

    fixed
    @ Ultima, So sad you think and an argument and a discussion are the same thing. That is a Red Flag.

    Maybe that is why you are always quarrelling with EVERYBODY in your posts and trying to find Got You points. That seems to be you focus, always so negative and argumentative.

    At first I thought you were entertaining, now you are becoming scary
    The way you become obsessed with “winning the argument” is scary, and everything is an argument with you.
    We learned in school to watch for danger signs with people, and you display many of the characteristics of people they told us to stay away from.
    I had my friends and family reviewed the site and all the postings. They loved the site and all the posters except you. They reviewed some of you postings over the last few months and came to the conclusion you are very argumentative, focused on “winning the argument” when none exist, and can’t accept when you are wrong. They all said I should stay away from people like you and stop posting on this site.
    Also on television News they bring in experts to warn people what to watch out for on the internet, and you display many of the characteristics of people they told us to stay away from.
    Young women need to be careful in today’s world
    We were told what to do when we run into people like you

    With that said, I will not be posting at tvbythenumbers.com any more.
    To everyone at tvbythenumbers.com, it is a great site, and I appreciate all the people who make this site run, and all the commenters (except one).

  • AppleStinx

    Who needs tv for drama when there’s so much better stuff going on right here? :grin:

  • Ultima

    @Holly
    You two do realize you’re both being ridiculous, right?

    In my defense, I only read the first sentence of what he wrote before I posted my last comment.

    Everything before that? Totally worth it! I got the most awesomely ridiculous response, ever, ever! :mrgreen:

  • Ultima

    @AppleStinx
    Who needs tv for drama when there’s so much better stuff going on right here?

    Drama? This is pure comedy. I laughed harder at Honey Badger’s last comment than I did at anything I’ve seen from NBC in the past year! ;)

  • Brian J

    @Honey Badger:

    “What would you do if you were the president of NBC?”

    Simple. Were I Greenblatt, I’d try to clean house in a lot of ways. I’d definitely keep “Revolution” unless it implodes when it comes back. I’d also keep “Parenthood” because it’s going well all things considered and because I still think it could go on for a few more seasons, because it’s close to syndication, and because it would be a good sign that NBC is serious about having quality shows. I’d also give one final, perhaps shortened season to “SVU” and I’d probably renew “Chicago Fire,” too, although I’d try to ship it to Fridays or even Saturdays. I’d renew “Parks” for a few reasons and possibly “Go On,” “The New Normal,” and maybe “Save Me” if it shows promise, although I’d probably hold a bunch of them to midseason. “Hannibal” should be renewed if it is creatively well regarded.

    I’d work like a dog to find one other unscripted show that could go at least one night a week, or even or two or three. I’ve said this is “Supermarket Sweep,” an early ’90s show (Google if if you don’t remember). I’d put that on Wednesdays and/or Thursdays at 8:00, and possibly even Fridays at 8:00, too. “Hollywood Game Night” with Jane Lynch as a host might work. Whatever the case, get something to use as a lead in for scripted fare, as “The Voice” is used now.

    To keep this post shorter, and because I am sure this will come up a lot between now and May, I’ll simply say that NBC shouldn’t be reluctant to blow up its current schedule. For instance, it might want to put all dramas on Thursdays and/or Wednesdays. And instead of leaving “The Voice” on Mondays going until 10:00, have it go until 9:30 and put a new comedy there. Don’t put the new MJ Fox show on Thursdays, as I was expecting/suggesting. Put it on Tuesdays. Basically, a strategy like this might allow them to zig while others zag, grabbing viewers who don’t like what is already offered on a night, while focusing on a smaller number of new shows so that viewers have heightened awareness, and then finally having the means to grow. Which is to say, if it can see success on Tuesdays with the new MJ Fox show and what comes after it, it could then move one of them to another night. And as much as it might seem odd to have all dramas on Thursdays, who cares if they are good and get at least, say, a 2.0? The key is to find something, anything, that works.

  • Oliver

    Here’s my big game-changing NBC strategy: Comcast buy a large stake in USFL and air it in Spring once Sunday Night Football finishes.

    They move The Apprentice between Voice cycles, which frees up The Biggest Loser. They use those reality shows to launch scripted hits.

  • Brian J

    @Oliver:

    I don’t think that’s a bad idea. It might not work, but it wouldn’t hurt to experiment. Perhaps the goal should be for NBC to always have something new on.

    I’m kind of curious to see how the live version of “The Sound of Music” does. If it works, I could see it leading to similar productions. Essentially, why doesn’t NBC try to bring Broadway to television? Not sure of how that would work with the commercials, but it could take a concept that nobody else is doing and see it work very well. It could be a Sunday night fixture once, say, football was over.

  • Oliver

    Here’s a schedule if NBC wants to be aggressive:

    Monday:
    8 – New Family Comedy
    8:30 – New Family Comedy
    9 – Michael J. Fox
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10 – New Drama

    Tuesday:
    8 – The Voice
    10 – Revolution

    Wednesday:
    8 – The Voice
    9 – Chicago Fire
    10 – Parenthood

    Thursday:
    8 – Dateline
    9 – Parks
    9:30 – Go On
    10 – SVU (final season)

    Friday:
    8 – Grimm (Halloween)
    9 – Dracula (Halloween)
    10 – Rock Center

    NBC puts all their promotion efforts into an “all new” Monday night (and, y’know, the million timeslot changes).

  • Ultima

    @Brian J
    I’d probably renew “Chicago Fire,” too, although I’d try to ship it to Fridays or even Saturdays.

    Why? It’s NBC’s second highest rated drama and as of late it has been growing significantly out of SVU. Why not stick a new drama with potential in front of it to try and build a successful night? If you were going to send it to Saturday, why even renew it?

  • Brian J

    @Oliver:

    I’m not 100 percent set on where all of the shows should go and when they should premiere. I think “Parenthood” could work in a lot of different places, but unless the goal is to end it soon, why not maximize what you are going to do with it? I could see the logic in splitting up that show into mini seasons, one in the fall and the other in the spring, each with 10-15 episodes.

    Anyway, I think the MJF show will get a big enough audience on its own, yet I think “The Voice” could make it go even higher, or at least sustain enough interest until some creative kinks are worked out. Putting it on Mondays is kind of risky, especially with every other show being new. Thursdays is too risky, Fridays is too low profile, and Wednesday might work except that the Monday issues are larger and there’s more of a pronounced challenge, since “MF” is probably similar in tone and style. Tuesdays seems much more open, because the comedy competition is either non-existant or too dissimilar, and “NCIS” fans are probably a different type of people.

    The key is that NBC needs at least one other night of comedy, with as strong a lead-in as possible. Ideally, as I suggested above, it would work like a dog to find another unscripted hit so that it could put it either on Wednesdays and/or Thursday and Friday. It would be much easier for NBC to launch a comedy block on Wednesday, even up against “Modern Family,” if it had a stronger lead-in. Right now, the strongest lead-in it has is “The Voice,” so it should try to put at least one new comedy on Mondays, probably at 9:30. Hell, it might make sense to have just three comedies in total on the air, all of them new, with more coming at midseason. My guess, though, is that NBC will keep some of its comedies on Thursdays, perhaps as a final send-off.

    Right now, this is one version of what a new schedule would look like:

    Monday:

    8:00-The Voice
    9:30-New Comedy
    10:00-Revolution

    Tuesday:

    8:00-The Voice
    9:00-MJF
    9:30-New Comedy
    10:00-Parenthood or a new drama

    Wednesday:

    8:00-Grimm
    9:00-New Drama (Bloodline, The Blacklist, Believe, The Sixth Gun)
    10:00-New Drama (Bloodline, The Blacklist, Believe, The Sixth Gun)

    Thursdays:

    Possibly similar to Wednesdays; if not…

    8:00-Parks or something similar, possibly a new odd comedy that needs time to find its footing
    8:30-Parks or something similar, possibly a new odd comedy that needs time to find its footing
    9:00-New Drama
    10:00-New Drama

    Friday:

    8:00-New Drama/Family Comedies?/repeats?/Parenthood?????/Rock Center?
    9:00-Chicago Fire/SVU
    10:00-SVU/Chicago Fire

    ALL OF THIS could be changed, as I have said, if NBC gets lucky and has a new reality hit on its hands.

  • Brian J

    @Ultima:

    I’ve only seen one episode, but I don’t think it’s ever going to be a big, big hit. It looks to be a solid performer, though, and I suspect it might be able to do just as well on Fridays (or Saturdays; more on that in a moment) while giving NBC the chance to make Wednesdays, a more high profile night, into something grander.

    “Grimm” usually gets, what, at least a 1.5 on Fridays? I think “CF” could get that on Fridays, if not actually grow. (Think of who might be home on that night.) Meanwhile, I think “Grimm” could grow, as it has a unique twist on the traditional cop show, and would be a better fit with several of the pilots that NBC has ordered. It’s also getting closer and closer to syndication numbers, so a surge in viewers would be even nicer.

    It’s actually about the pairing of shows more than anything else.

    As for Saturdays, I’ve said for a while that the networks should try to program there. They wouldn’t go there with something high profile, but for something safer, perhaps? No other network would actively program on that night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it easily did what it’s doing now on Wednesdays. Paired with a final season of “SVU,” whose core audience seems to be the only ones left watching the show after all of these years, it might make an impact for NBC.

    It’d be risky, but there’s nothing to prevent NBC from moving it to another night if it is not working.

  • Allen

    UAN: Canceled
    GWK: Canceled
    New Normal: Canceled
    1600 Pen: Canceled
    Parks: Renewed (Final season)
    Community: Renewed (Final season)
    Whitney: Renewed

  • NBC Fan

    What they should do:

    Cancel:
    Go On
    Guys with Kids
    The New Normal
    Whitney
    Community
    Smash
    Deception
    1600 Penn

    Renew:
    Chicago Fire
    SVU
    Grimm
    Revolution
    Parenthood
    Parks and Recreation
    NBC can’t and won’t rise if they keep renewing low-rated comedies and dramas that will NEVER be decent prefornw

  • NBC Fan

    My bad…
    The last sentence should be:

    NBC can’t and won’t rise if they keep on renewing low rated comedies and dramas that will NEVER be decent performers.

  • Brian J

    @NBC Fan:

    I agree. Problem with “Parks” is that it’s getting kind of old, and while it’s still great, I don’t see it going another five seasons. A spin off, perhaps?

  • NBC Fan

    @Brian J

    You’re right about “Parks”. The only reason why it’s on my renew list is because they may need it to replace one of their failing new comedies.

  • Brian J

    @NBC Fan:

    Yeah, I mean….I might be wrong. It could have more three or four more seasons, and NBC would want it to run longer, since it’s going into syndication. (I think it’s going on Comedy Central, but I am not sure.) I think the best bet is to renew it, but hold it to midseason. NBC would love to be in a position to have too many successful shows. The worst thing that would happen is that they’d need to run it on Friday nights or something.

  • a p garcia

    NBC is doing its best to kill it, which isn’t hard.

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