NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Oliver

    Parks has a cable deal for Esquire (the soon-to-be-rebranded version of G4, NBCUniversal-owned) and WGN America. They have delayed broadcast syndication until next season.

    Between seasons 4-6 is usually the sweet spot for sitcom profitability vs rising costs. It’s the ratings that will kill it, not costs.

  • capslocke

    NBC needs to completely clean house. Cancel everything except The Voice, TBL, Parenthood, SVU, Chicago Fire, Grimm, and possibly Revolution depending on how it returns. For the comedies, as Senor Chang said, only renew Parks & Rec. and Community for final seasons to be put in the Thursdays @ 8 slot against TBBT/2.5 Men.

  • SJ

    @Oliver

    That is actually a really good schedule!

  • Brian J

    @Oliver:

    Yeah, probably. The reason I brought up age, though, is that NBC could do more to support the show now, but it would come at the expense of a show that will be in the air for longer than “Parks” is at this point.

  • Brian J

    I’m not sure how many times a network can air a show, even if it owns it, before hurting its syndication value, but NBC should really consider (a) moving “Grimm” to another night and (b) airing it after “AGT” this summer. It’s got a devoted audience now, it seems, and it might be able to help build a new night, however slowly. It’d be compatible with any number of other shows NBC has ordered to pilot, and I can see the logic putting the show on, say, Wednesdays or Thursdays in place of comedies.

  • omabin

    I really think that for the remainder of the season, this is what NBC should go with:

    Monday
    The Voice
    The Voice
    Revolution

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    Grimm
    Hannibal

    Wednesday
    Fashion Star
    Law and Order: SVU
    Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    Community
    Parks and Recreation
    The Office
    Go On
    Smash

    Friday
    Dateline
    Dateline
    Rock Center

    – Burn the new normal before the voice comes back by double pumping it each week. Do the same for whitney as soon as guys with kids is over. Give up on save me for this year, enough with failed comedies already. Just pull 1600 Penn, it is not going anywhere.

  • Ben

    NBC potential schedule 2013-2014

    Monday
    8:00-The Voice
    10:00-Revolution

    Tuesday
    8:00-NEW COMEDY
    8:30-NEW COMEDY
    9:00-The Voice
    10:00-NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8:00-NEW DRAMA
    9:00-Law and Order: SVU
    10:00-NEW DRAMA

    Thursday
    8:00-Parks and Recreation
    8:30-Community
    9:00-Chicago Fire
    10:00-Parenthood

    Friday
    8:00-Dateline
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-Rock Center With Brian Williams

    Sunday (end or Febuary)
    7:00-Dateline NBC
    8:00-The Apprentice
    10:00-Ready for Love

    Sunday (beginning of April)
    7:00-Dateline NBC
    8:00-The Apprentice
    9:00-Ready for Love

  • HAPPY!

    What NBC should do for the rest of the year.

    March:

    Monday
    8-The Voice
    10-Revolution

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice
    9-Save Me
    9:30-The New Normal
    10-Smash

    Wednesday
    8-Whitney
    8:30-1600 Penn
    9-SVU
    10-Chicagp Fire

    Thursday
    8-Community
    8:30-Parks and Rec
    9-The Office
    9:30-Go On
    10-ENCORE PROGRAMMING

    Friday
    8-Dateline NBC
    9-Grimm
    10-Rock Center

    Sunday
    8-The Apprentice
    10-Ready for Love

    April:

    Monday
    SAME AS MARCH

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice
    9-Save Me
    9:30-Save Me (The New Normal finale on April 4th followed by 4 more weeks of double episodes of Save Me)
    10-Hannibal

    Wednesday (hour long Whitney finale on March 27th and hour long 1600 Penn finale on April 3rd)
    8-Fashion Star
    9-SVU (finale at end of April)
    10-Chicago Fire (finale at end of April)

    Thursday (most shows end sometime in April)
    8-Community (finale on April 18th)
    8:30-Parks and Rec (finale in beginning of April, followed by double episodes of Community)
    9-The Office (finale on April 11th)
    9:30-Go On (finale on April 4th)
    10-Smash (2 hour episodes starting April 16th airing from 9-11)

    Friday
    SAME AS MARCH (finale of Grimm in late April)

    Sunday
    8-Ready for Love
    10-The Apprentice

  • HV

    @HAPPY!
    NBC has already made plans on what will air through May on Wednesday @ 8:00-9:00, and The Office has a ending date in May.

  • Oliver

    My guess is that NBC will heavily promote Parks airing on Esquire, killing two birds with one stone.

  • Brian J

    @HV:

    What did NBC announce for May?

    @all:

    Do you suspect that Greenblatt, et all are convinced “Hannibal” is going to flop, despite the talent involved? Seems so bizarre that they’d not try to maximize its chances for success by putting it on Tuesday, perhaps with a two-hour “Voice” at least for one episode. It’s not clear if any of the new comedies will make it to a second season, but having two new dramas be successful would be a big step in the right direction for NBC.

  • HV

    @ Brian J
    Well what I was saying above is that NBC plans to replace Guys with Kids with Whitney reruns, and then the both of them will be replaced by Betty White when Whitney finishes. Also, The Office is set to end on May 16.

  • Simon

    Re. Community, I’d say with few data points nothing is certain to be anything.

  • Jason

    No. I think NBC should do something called NBC’s Sunday Suspense Theater because if they can’t get a good enough hit on Sunday nights, they should just do it as an anthology series and choose actors for cheap. They should also do The NBC Thursday Comedy Stage.

    Both will be produced by NBC themselves and shot at Universal Studios Hollywood. If they can’t afford enough to film them, it should be shot on videotape like most theatrical specials.

  • HAPPY!

    @HV
    I know that NBC has already announced their schedule for the rest of the year, I was just saying what I think it should look like.

  • jaca

    Smash cancelled–ridiculous! Maybe if a show continued through a whole season, rather than taken off the air for months and then brought back it would survive.

  • Ultima

    @jaca
    Maybe if a show continued through a whole season, rather than taken off the air for months and then brought back it would survive.

    :roll: EVERY scripted show goes on hiatus during the summer, yet not all of them return way down – seems like a pretty lame excuse. It’s also ridiculous to think that ~50 episodes a year is in any way reasonable or even possible.

  • Judy Lowrey

    Bring back Harry’s Law, I just love the interplay between Cathy Bates and her nemesis.

  • steve

    @ Judy Lowrey

    I also miss Harry’s Law and NBC should have canceled Smash and kept Harry’s Law on the air. If Smash gets renewed then something is seriously wrong with NBC because Harry’s Law got the same 18-49 demo ratings but had 3 times as many people watching.

    Judy Lowrey
    Posted March 2, 2013 at 7:37 PM

    Bring back Harry’s Law, I just love the interplay between Cathy Bates and her nemesis.

  • steve

    With Parks & Rec and Community being the only 2 sitcoms NBC should renew, I am hoping they give The New Normal another season. NBC can’t start from scratch with all new comedies on their lineup next year.

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