NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • MichaelChickless

    Cancel:

    Smash
    The New Normal
    1600 Penn
    Deception
    Up All Night

    Renew:

    Guys With Kids
    Whitney
    Go On
    Community
    Parenthood
    Parks & Recreation
    Law & Order: SVU
    Chicago Fire
    Grimm
    Revolution

  • Outcountryguest

    Has somebody think that NBC the premierr of Hanibal in April because they want to promote it when The Voice returns?

    It actually make sense, keep in ind what happened to all of the dramas (Deceptio, Do No Harm, Smash) , No matter when it premiered their ratings were low.

    Also Look at Fox now that they had Idol Back, they had a show where they can promote their shows and actually give them a chance.

    Sorry my bad english, I´m not american.

  • merrrranga

    @Dataif you actually read what i said, i said that it tackles divisive ISSUES. i was trying to specifically point out how it does so in a non-divisive way.

    Reading Comprehension is your friend.

  • a p garcia

    I read that the IQs are going down among people. I think these low IQ people are being hired by the NBC programming dept.

  • Data

    @merrrranga: So it tackles divisive issues without being divisive in and of itself?

    Whatever it tackles or is – on thing it is not: And that is good.

  • Craig

    I wouldnt count Smash out just yet

  • Jam

    Monday
    8 The Voice / The Biggest Loser
    10 Revolution
    The problem with Revolution is that it’s still protected by The Voice, so you can’t really tell if it’ll collapse like Go On/The New Normal. I suggest keeping Revolution for a whole season (no hiatus), and see if ratings can stabilize.

    Tuesday
    8 The Voice
    9 Parenthood
    10 New Parenthood-ish drama
    Parenthood is a rating success (even better rated than Vegas and Private Practice), and is completely independent of low-rated Go On/The New Normal. So why not move a strong drama to 9pm?

    Wednesday
    8 ??
    9 Law and Order: SVU
    10 Chicago Fire
    Wednesday 8pm is a trouble. The sitcoms didn’t work at all. I suggest launching a procedural at 8 as counter-programming, but that means NBC’s only comedy block will be Thursdays.

    Thursday
    8-10 new sitcoms, Community, Parks and Recreation
    10 Rock Center
    NBC should give up on Thursdays. They cancel the highest rated sitcom The Office and 30 Rock, leaving Community and Parks and Recreation which aren’t good anchors anyway… I see NBC tries to move Law and Order: SVU to Thursday at 10. Considering Elementary doesn’t go as big as Criminal Minds, SVU may do better. But this leaves Wednedsay 9pm a big hole like last season.

    Friday
    8 Dracula/Crossbones
    9 Grimm
    10 Dateline

  • THE OLD MAN

    With all those sitcoms & now Smash, the cancelation will become a Dancing Bear most certainly

    @ steve sanders

    Good One!

  • Honey Badger

    @ Bill Gorman, I like your comment “And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.” And your earlier comment ““the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com”

    When looks at the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, and how the other shows have performed: the expensive “ Smash “tanked, “ Do No Harm “which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks, “Deception” tanked, and so many NBC shows have low and dropping ratings.

    At this point I have no idea what shows NBC will cancel as it looks like almost all their shows should be up for cancellation. If these shows were on CBS almost all of them would be cancelled.
    What would you do if you were President of NBC now?

    The latest rating for NBC shows now that NBC NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice is between seasons, are cancel worthy low for almost all NBC shows.
    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 1.2, The New Normal 1.1, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.3, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.6, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2
    As many people predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, without “The Voice “ acting as a lead in to help other shows get better ratings, NBC would be lucky to get a show above a 2.0 18-49 rating. Looks like the predictions are true !
    Example: “ Go On “.premieried with a 3.4 18-49 rating and went settled around a 2.4, without “the voice “ as a lead-in, Go On dropped to a 1.3.
    As predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, the oversaturation of singing and talent shows will cause all these shows ratings and viewers to drop big time.
    Look at American Idol ratings
    FOX American Idol 3.6 18-49 Rating 12.33 Viewers Live+SD (million)
    This shows that NBC is in big trouble.
    “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a big down year. It is inevitable “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.

    The Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has hard decisions to make at NBC, which shows should the Bear cancel or does the Bear cancel almost all the shows on NBC?
    The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed

    What would you do if you were in charge of NBC now?

  • Oliver

    Both Senor Chang and Jam’s proposed schedules seem sensible, with nothing self-evidently insane, which is a pleasant surprise!

    Personally, I would do:

    Monday:
    8: The Voice
    10: Revolution

    Tuesday:
    8: The Voice
    9: New Drama
    10: Parenthood

    Wednesday:
    8: Parks (22)
    8.30: Goon (13 eps)
    9: SVU
    10: Chicago Fire

    Thursday:
    8: New Family Comedy
    8.30: New Family Comedy
    9: Michael J. Fox
    9.30: New Comedy
    10: New Drama

    Friday:
    8: Repeats/Grimm (Halloween)
    9: Rock Center/Dracula (Halloween)
    10: Dateline

    Keep everything that is working mostly the same, reboot Thursday from scratch as a family night (the 8pm show is being set up to fail, but it’s the marketing that matters).

    Renew Community/Whitney/OTR as spackle in case Thursday fails.

  • Bryce

    I expect smash to rise this week cause it doesn’t have to go against the bachelor tonight. I could be wrong though but I think there is a good chance Smash will rise. By how much I don’t know.

  • RG-X

    I’ve seen at least a half a dozen promos of the Return of The Voice and NOTHING about Revolutions return.

    They return the same nite – come on NBC start promoting more than just the Voice!

  • Oliver

    Also, if Up All Night is any indication, NBC isn’t going to give up on Smash, even if they’re forced to retool it as a singing competition.

  • Oliver

    @RG-X
    To be fair to NBC, it’s still over a month away.

  • David

    The saddest thing for NBC is that a shows with 1.2 and 1.3 in the 18-49 are considered worthy of renewing.

  • Allen

    Question…

    Why are people suggesting that NBC launch a new comedy on Thursday at 8? Wouldn’t that be almost a certain cancellation for a new show at that time slot?

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    Does anyone have the feeling that The Voice and Revolution are gonna come back down when they return March 25?

  • Honey Badger

    Not only is NBC in big trouble, it looks like they have given up. They put repeats and low cost shows on Friday, Saturday and Sunday that have no chance of getting good ratings. Looks like they are going back to cutting costs, just like the old Jay Leno Primetime days.
    Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4

    I read somewhere they are cutting costs because of the financial repercussions of shows that flopped and tanked, like the expensive “ Smash “ that tanked, “ Do No Harm “ which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks, “Deception” tanked, and so many NBC shows have low and dropping ratings

  • Melanie

    Let me see if I have this right — at this point the two highest rated shows are the two that have been off the air for 4 months and their best rated dramas are in the 10PM hour where ratings suck in general? Fabulous scheduling, just fabulous.

    Mark Pedowitz is hoping you keep up the good work — especially on Wed & Thurs.

  • Mickey

    So nice to see Chicago Fire climbing the charts! :D

    It’s presently number one (until Revolution returns, anyway.) After a bit of a slow start, I guess people are clueing in to how great a show it is.

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