NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dan

    @SJ – Thats entirely possible but The Voice will swoop in to save Go On, maybe The New Normal, but probably not Smash. Smash is gone but will air all episodes, and NBC will save Go On even if the rest of their seasons offerings are failures. The New Normal’s numbers right now are garbage of course but if ratings rise behind Go On in March-April then it might be renewed.

  • The End

    The most likely scenario will be The Voice and Revolution paired together for Season 2.

    Hope I’m not faced with a ‘I told you so’ situation when Revolution is renewed, and the airdate for Season 2 eventually revealed as, you guessed it. Monday at 10pm.

  • StevenD

    Honestly, if NBC renews all those dramas and Hannibal does good enough to be renewed, they need to put another drama on friday or maybe start scripted programming on sunday.

    NBC has a pilot called The Sixth Gun, they should heavily promote that, and put it on Wednesday at 9. Singing shows, comedies, and a cop show are the competition. no show like it (a western, other elements too), and put Revolution at 10 behind it. 2 single cams at 8. They should put 2 that would target people who liked The Office.

    I’d put The Voice on at 8, with a new drama at 9 and Chicago Fire at 10. In the spring, they can end the drama and premeire 2 new comedies after the voice for 13 episode runs with all of them behind The Voice if they choose to run it 2 time next year.

    SVU can move to Fridays after Grimm. I feel like the show would do well there, I mean USA repeats it on Fridays and it does decent there. Move Parenthood to Thursday at 10, with Michael J fox at 9 as a good lead in. Parks/Community at 8. Go on could go at 9:30?

    Get rid of Smash, Whitney could be spackle just in case, and the rest of the comedies are gone

    They can put whatever new drama they want to on Monday at 10, but in the Spring they should launch Crossbones, it has a 10 episode order and would fit in perfectly

  • DamC

    Here’s my NBC fantasy schedule for this fall:

    MONDAY
    8- The Voice
    10- THE SIXTH GUN

    TUESDAY
    8- The Voice: Results
    9- UNTITLED GREG DANIELS/ROBERT PADNICK
    9:30- ASSISTANCE
    10- Revolution

    Revolution will premiere after a 2-hour The Voice. It will have The Voice as a lead-in two more times every cycle. The Voice will come back earlier, the day after the Olympics end.

    WEDNESDAY
    8- Parenthood (16 episodes)
    9- Chicago Fire
    10- I AM VICTOR

    The Biggest Loser will take over Parenthood’s time slot after the Olympics (no TBL between The Voice cycles because there are only 5 weeks available because of the Olympics)

    THURSDAY
    8- Go ON
    8:30- ABOUT A BOY
    9- MICHAEL J FOX COMEDY
    9:30- THE GATES

    FRIDAY
    8- Whitney
    8:30- JOHN MULANEY PROJECT
    9- Grimm
    10- DRACULA

    MIDSEASON:
    - BLOODLINE (13 eps)
    - BRENDA FOREVER (13 eps)
    - UNTITLED DJ NASH (13 eps)
    - CROSSBONES (10 eps)

    - Community (13 eps)
    - Parks and Recreation (17eps)
    Both shows will likely go on Fridays at 8.

    - Off Their Rockers
    - Celebrity Apprentice
    + whatever new reality show NBC has to fill Mondays between The Voice cycles (5 episodes)

  • DamC

    I forgot about SVU, it will go on Thursdays at 10.

  • FJT

    Please do not cancel Smash or Nashville!

  • Aaron

    Tis what they get for cancelling Harry’s Law. I suppose if Harry’s Law was still on NBC, it would be their most-watched show.

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Aaron -

    Most-watched does not = High demo.

    Harry’s law had very low 18-49 demo ratings similar to what NBC has on now. It certainly wouldn’t help them any.

  • Ultima

    @Aaron
    Tis what they get for cancelling Harry’s Law.

    Harry’s Law averaged a 1.1 rating last season, if it were still on, it would likely be the lowest rated drama on NBC (except Do No Harm, yay?).

  • Holly

    @Ultima,

    I don’t know, I think it would have a decent chance at beating(?) Do No Harm to the bottom of the ratings.

  • Matt H.

    In the headline, “NBC:…” the colon implies that this is something NBC said. Obviously untrue.

    Also, I’m not sure how you can back out from a ‘certain to be renewed’ prediction any more than Joe Namath could have waffled on his prediction concerning the 1969 superbowl.

    When you say you are ‘certain,’ no waffling is allowed.

  • Giselle

    I hardly watch any shows on TV. Most are about killings I’m so sick of it.The other shows are stupid..Reality Shows what a joke. Disrespect is glorified even the Cartoons suck. The constant bickering on Am Idol,DWTS etc is annoying. Even the late night shows are getting boring. :-(((

  • Greendale

    Yo! Everybody, stop saying Community gets a final season order. It needs SIX seasons. I don’t care if each season is like 6 episode, It needs to reach SIX seasons and a movie!!!

  • Ultima

    @Matt H
    In the headline, “NBC:…” the colon implies that this is something NBC said.

    Context matters. This article is posted in the “Renew/Cancel & Special Features” section, not under “TV News.”

    Also, it says FOUR TIMES at the top that it is the Renew/Cancel Index; all offical statements from the networks always indicate that it is a press release at least twice.

    If anyone actually thought that this was an offical statement from the network, then they should be mocked for reading only the headline and not the article.

  • Holly

    @Matt H.

    This is obviously your first visit to the site. So first, welcome.

    While a colon can be used for quotation, in this case it is obviously being used to separate a title and subtitle.

    It isn’t in boilerplate text for some reason, but the Renewal/Cancel Index says what would happen if the season ended this week. That means changes in ratings data can change the predictions. They will do a final prediction post in late April/early May.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – Harry’s Law is the only series that was the second lowest rated drama in the demo but the second highest rated in total viewers.

    @The End – Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if Revolution aired Tuesdays at 10, NBC used The Voice to launch a new show this fall and Parenthood moved to Thursdays at 10.

  • Jazz

    Maybe NBC should create a show called The Colon. Medical drama? Procedural? Mystery? At this point they can probably create a show about a colon, any kind of colon and follow it for a few weeks. Surely, it can get more than a 1.1 in the demos.

    I like Deception. It is not a great show but I do like it. Awaiting the return of Revolution and Grimm. I hope both or either provide an uptick in the ratings. I cannot imagine a network losing half their shows. The Colon, followed by The Question Mark at 9 and The Intestines at 10. Sorry, had to go there.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    The problem on NBC is that the long hiatus they put on shows and then rely everything now on The Voice(which should’nt have two cycles a year;it’s too much).The should maintain Parenthood on tuesdays at 10 where it works for a full season.
    They need to revamp the thursday night launching new shows.

  • karin

    Law & Order: SVU ratings are pathetic

  • steve

    NBC renewed Smash for season 2 and now it will be cancelled…what a shock/ I can’t stand Katharine McPhee!

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