NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Cindy

    Renew Whitney

  • Andrew

    For people saying Smash should be put on Thursday’s…Are you kidding me?!
    It would be brutally murdered and hung out to dry. I think it’s on a good day, but people aren’t connecting.

  • Miranda

    Why is Guys With Kids going to be cancelled, it is a good show. But Whitney is an even better show, if Guys With Kids is cancelled than at least renew Whitney so I’m a bit happier.

  • Brendan

    Poor Smash, it is likely to be cancelled, and shows that will more than likely to be cancelled like Up All Night, Guys With Kids and 1600 Pen that is sad, however, leave the shows that are renewed already and add the shows that NBC should really keep still are Go On, Community and Whitney.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    This schedule is the trickiest to do IMO

    I’m curious what they’ll do with the four hour hole created by The Voice and Revolution in January next season. Presumably, The Voice and Revolution would return on 24 February, leaving only five weeks to fill.

    My solution would be a short strip run of Deal or No Deal (Mon/Tue/Wed at 8pm) with The Biggest Loser Monday 9-11pm; then a recap of TBL against the Oscars before it shortens to one hour and pairs up with The Celebrity Apprentice on Sundays.

    As for the fall, I would go with…

    Monday
    8 – The Voice
    10 – Revolution

    Tuesday
    8 – MJF
    8:30 – new comedy
    9 – The Voice
    10 – Parenthood (replaced by best new serial drama, premiering 25 February)

    Wednesday
    8 – best new procedural drama
    9 – Chicago Fire
    10 – SVU

    Thursday
    8 – Off Their Rockers
    8:30 – Community (13 eps)
    9 – Parks & Recreation (22 eps)
    9:30 – Go On (13 eps)
    10 – Rock Center

    Friday
    8 – Dateline
    9 – Grimm
    10 – Dracula

    Saturday
    8 – new Wednesday drama (R)
    9 – Chicago Fire (R)
    10 – SVU (R)

    Their best new drama and MJF should be able to stand on their own without needing to be coddled by The Voice. Thursday is a punt – probably move SVU there midseason and cancel the whole night at the end of the year.

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    I didn’t include the Olympics in my schedule, I overlooked them. Do you think there is a chance we see the biggest looser not on replace mode then? Back to two seasons? It’s 2.0, while not great by any means, is far from granted for NBC right now. But I doubt that, what you say is more likely I think.

    As for your schedule, I am not sure that they are going to abandon the multicam block altogether. Also, I don’t see the point of using The Voice to prop up parenthood. It will go to its 5th season, unlikely to get many new viewers now, and it is already doing fine on its own. Why not have the voice supporting the comedies? I also think it is unlikely that they wave the white flag completely on thursday. I mean, that is pretty much what they did this year and I don’t think they will do it again next year, at some point they have to try it.

  • Oliver

    @Ultima
    Something new has to go after The Voice, otherwise they’re just wasting that giant lead-in. I also think moving Chicago Fire to 9, which is a tougher slot, is an unnecessary risk.

    That said, I do like the idea of only launching 3 new shows in the fall, and I like the idea of TBL on Sunday.

  • Oliver

    Oh, and I can’t imagine them moving the SNL repeats from 10pm Saturday. I suspect it’s going to be a permanent fixture from now on because it’s doing very well.

  • Joe

    Color me shocked! The diva arrogance of Jennifer Hudson couldn’t save the show; not that I ever watched it. Jennifer Hudson is just like Beyonce and Christina Gag-a-lot…thinks they’re better than everyone.

  • MichaelChickless

    I’d totally Smash Katharine McPhee. Too bad her show isn’t going to make it.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    Do you think there is a chance we see the biggest looser not on replace mode then? Back to two seasons?

    No; I don’t think there’s enough room on their fall schedule for it.

    I am not sure that they are going to abandon the multicam block altogether.

    I could see multi-cams at 8pm Wednesday, followed by the new drama (with a lead-in from The Voice week 1) and Chicago Fire; SVU to Thursday and Rock Center canceled.

    Also, I don’t see the point of using The Voice to prop up parenthood.

    MJF should be able to stand on its own at 8pm; this also keeps it away from FOX’s stronger comedy hour and eliminates any need to swap the schedule at midseason so that the new drama can get The Voice for a lead-in.

    Also, the goal isn’t to prop up Parenthood; I just think that putting The Voice at 9pm will lead to stronger ratings for the entire night than if it were at 8pm.

    I also think it is unlikely that they wave the white flag completely on thursday.

    I don’t think they have shows capable of competing on Thursday, so they should focus on nights where they can actually improve significantly (Tuesday and Wednesday).

  • Honey Badger

    the Olympics is a big money loser for NBC.
    To quote a Nasdaq article below:
    “Even the Olympic Games — NBC’s most prized sporting event — are a risky, a money-losing venture. The network lost $233 million on the Vancouver games in 2010.
    Analysts estimated that the company would lose another $100 million on last year’s Summer Games in London, but NBC found a way to break even.”

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com. To be mentioned in an article on nasdaq.com is very impressive.
    Congratulations, Well Done
    Comcast’s NBC Buy Won’t Bankrupt Cable Giant, But It’s Odd, Wasteful and Dangerous
    By Benzinga, February 13, 2013, 03:09:16 PM EDT
    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/comcasts-nbc-buy-wont-bankrupt-cable-giant-but-its-odd-wasteful-and-dangerous-cm217394

    2 weeks the television show ‘Suburgatory’ on ABC gave tvbythenumbers.com A Primetime Shout Out

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com, a very impressive.

  • Honey Badger

    oops forgot a key line

    the Olympics is a big money loser for NBC.
    To quote a nasdaq article below:
    “Even the Olympic Games — NBC’s most prized sporting event — are a risky, a money-losing venture. The network lost $233 million on the Vancouver games in 2010.
    Analysts estimated that the company would lose another $100 million on last year’s Summer Games in London, but NBC found a way to break even.
    “We are way ahead of where we thought we’d be,” NBCUniversal chief exec Steve Burke told the Associated Press last August.
    In other words, Comcast just invested $16.7 billion in a company that, at best, knows how to break even.”

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com. To be mentioned in an article on nasdaq.com is very impressive.
    Congratulations, Well Done
    Comcast’s NBC Buy Won’t Bankrupt Cable Giant, But It’s Odd, Wasteful and Dangerous
    By Benzinga, February 13, 2013, 03:09:16 PM EDT
    http://www.nasdaq.com/article/comcasts-nbc-buy-wont-bankrupt-cable-giant-but-its-odd-wasteful-and-dangerous-cm217394

    2 weeks the television show ‘Suburgatory’ on ABC gave tvbythenumbers.com A Primetime Shout Out

    Congratulations and Kudos to everybody at tvbythenumbers.com, a very impressive.

  • Ultima

    @Oliver
    Something new has to go after The Voice, otherwise they’re just wasting that giant lead-in.

    There’s a new drama in that slot in the spring. I guess from one point of view, it’s a waste of the lead-in, but I think the overall ratings for the night would be higher than if The Voice aired at 8pm.

    I also think moving Chicago Fire to 9, which is a tougher slot, is an unnecessary risk.

    Yeah. I actually like the new drama at 9pm, leaving Chicago Fire at 10pm and moving SVU to Thursday, but I couldn’t come up with anything at 8pm on Wednesday. I guess multi-cams, but then they’re up to six new shows/four new hours (or they bring back Whitney), which is what they did this season.

    That said, I do like the idea of only launching 3 new shows in the fall

    Actually, it’s four shows/three hours.

  • NBC Fan.

    NBC should cancel all of their comedies except for Parks and Recreation

    Thursdays should look like this:

    8:00-Parks & Rec. (It probably has a loyal audience that won’t switch to TBBT)
    8:30-NEW COMEDY (It needs to be a self-starter like The Middle in it’s 1first season)
    9:00-NEW COMEDY
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10:00-SVU

    WEDNESDAYS:
    7:00-Parenthood
    8:00-Chicago Fire
    9:00-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesdays:
    7:The Voice

  • NBC Fan.

    NBC should cancel all of their comedies except for Parks and Recreation

    Thursdays should look like this:

    8:00-Parks & Rec. (It probably has a loyal audience that won’t switch to TBBT)
    8:30-NEW COMEDY (It needs to be a self-starter like The Middle in it’s 1first season)
    9:00-NEW COMEDY
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10:00-SVU

    WEDNESDAYS:
    7:00-Parenthood
    8:00-Chicago Fire
    9:00-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesdays:
    7:00-The Voice
    8:00-New Drama
    9:00-Revolution

    Mondays:
    7:00-The Voice
    9:00-New Drama

    Sundays (Midseason)
    6:00-Dateline
    7:00-Betty White’s Off Their Rockers
    8:00-The Celebrity Apprentice

    Fridays:
    7:Dateline
    8:00-Grimm
    9:00-Dracula/Crossbones

    Midseason-The Biggest Loser, 1 New Drama, 1 New comedy

    The Times for Sunday-Wednesday are central time. Friday too.

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    Then I think that the solution for your problem is simply to move Parenthood to Wednesdays at 8pm, where its loyal audience should follow it to and premiere the new drama on tuesdays right on fall. That way, you don’t “waste” the voice lead-in on tuesdays and you have something to use on wednesdays. I don’t think this is what I would do anyway, but I do take your point that the voice at 9pm on tuesdays may very well lead to an overall increae in the whole night than at 8. But that assumes IMO, that the 10pm show is a show capable of benefiting of it, which 5 year parenthood does not strike to me as being.

    In any case, departing from your assumption that mondays will stay put, this would be my best bet (not sure about your thursday comedies though, but however we do them, they are still a mess. I still say that if revolution holds very well on spring it should be used to anchor wednesdays with a compatible new shows such as crossbones, leaving the post voice monday to yet another hit drama. A lineup of Chicago Fire-Revolution-Crossbones (I prefer Revolution-Crossbones-Chicago Fire but a lot of people seem to think revolution is too much to 8pm, which I don’t think is true) could do well enough if crossbones has the goods creatively and can create nice synergies with revolution. It is risky, but if this plan works, they would have at the end of that season, potentially: Revolution, Crossbones, the new Monday drama, Chicago Fire and Grimm. They need something like this because SVU can’t take it much more and Parenthood, as solid as it did for this year’s standards, will have one or two seasons max too.

  • Oliver

    Ah, yes, missed Dracula.

    Still, the principle remains. I’ve long felt that one of NBC’s major problems is that they try to launch too much each fall, which results in shows getting insufficient promotion.

    Still, while I like the idea, I imagine it’s a tricky one to justify at 30 Rock when so much of the network is in meltdown.

  • ben

    Since NBC has the Olympics to boost ratings next winter, they could launch a new drama or 2 new comedies off of it like they did last summer with Go On and Animal Practice (the latter was a terrible decision to preview after the Olympics). For the weeks before the Olympics, I don’t see any good reason to air new episodes of shows because without The Voice, they will all drop. I know this sounds dumb, but NBC should just run repeats of comedies and dramas (or even old episodes of reality shows such as Deal or no deal, The Apprentice, 1 VS 100, etc.). If only repeats aired, this would minimize massive drops in ratings attributed to the winter season and Voice hiatus.

    A potential schedule for NBC fall next year

    Monday
    8-The Voice
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice
    9-NEW COMEDY “MJF”
    9:30-Go On (18 episodes)
    10-Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8-Law and Order: SVU
    9-NEW DRAMA
    10-Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8-Parks and Recreation (24 episodes)
    8:30-Whitney (13 episodes)
    9-Community (24 episodes)
    9:30-Betty White’s of Their Rockers (13 episodes)
    10-Revolution

    Friday
    8-Dateline
    10-Grimm

    Winter (after Olympics)

    Monday
    8-The Voice
    10-NEW DRAMA (Same as fall)

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice
    9-NEW COMEDY (NOT MJF COMEDY, new show)(SNEAK PREVIEW AFTER CLOSING CEREMONY)
    9:30-Go On
    10-Parenthood

    Wednesday (no changes from fall)
    8-Law and Order: SVU
    9-NEW DRAMA (same as fall)
    10-Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8-Parks and Recreation
    8:30-NEW COMEDY (SNEAK PREVIEW AFTER OPENING CEREMONY)
    9-The Biggest Loser(until 2nd week of April)/Community
    9:30(Starting mid April)-Community (double up episodes in April and May)
    10-Revolution

    Friday
    8-Dateline
    10-Grimm

    Sunday
    8-The Biggest Loser
    9-The Apprentice (in mid April, The Biggest Loser becomes 1 1/2 hours long and The Apprentice shrinks to 1 1/2 hours)

  • Ben

    Thoughts on my schedule above?

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