NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Honey Badger

    @Honey Badger, What are you babbling about? Nobody’s saying that NBC needs a 40+ million viewer show to pull out of its rut. If they can find something to bridge the winter between seasons of The Voice and then find an anchor for Wednesday or Thursday (like what ABC did with The Middle and Modern Family a few years ago or Grey’s Anatomy before that) then they can build their way out of it.

    @tjw, I will try to make it simple: It is going to be very hard to turn NBC declining ratings around. Viewers have a plethora of choices today.
    Since 1997, overall broadcast television primetime ratings have declined by about 1/3, which makes it harder for broadcast networks to get viewers and ratings. And this year the broadcast networks ratings are tanking again.
    NBC is in worse shape than other broadcast networks like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me

    There is much more competition for entertainment. The whole television environment has changed the last few years – All the broadcast networks have been tanking for years, and they are tanking big time again this year. broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings.

    As for your “. If they can find something to bridge the winter between seasons of The Voice and then find an anchor for Wednesday or Thursday (like what ABC did with The Middle and Modern Family a few years ago or Grey’s Anatomy before that) then they can build their way out of it.”
    Have you checked ABC ratings lately? That network is sinking like a rock.

  • Honey Badger

    tjw
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 7:56 PM
    “ @Honey Badger, What are you babbling about? Nobody’s saying that NBC needs a 40+ million viewer show to pull out of its rut. If they can find something to bridge the winter between seasons of The Voice and then find an anchor for Wednesday or Thursday (like what ABC did with The Middle and Modern Family a few years ago or Grey’s Anatomy before that) then they can build their way out of it. “

    @tjw, I will try to make it simple: It is going to be very hard to turn NBC declining ratings around. Viewers have a plethora of choices today.
    Since 1997, overall broadcast television primetime ratings have declined by about 1/3, which makes it harder for broadcast networks to get viewers and ratings. And this year the broadcast networks ratings are tanking again.
    NBC is in worse shape than other broadcast networks like CBS because they have lower ratings to begin with. Example: if I have a million dollars and lose 10% I still have $900,000, and if you have $10 dollars and gain 20% you have $10.20. Who is in better shape? Me

    There is much more competition for entertainment. The whole television environment has changed the last few years – All the broadcast networks have been tanking for years, and they are tanking big time again this year. broadcast networks have been dropping like a rock in ratings and viewers for many years. Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers. Broadcast television has much more competition than it did a decade ago. In fact things have changed dramatically the last five years. Most of the networks are a shell of their former selves in viewers and ratings.

    As for your “. If they can find something to bridge the winter between seasons of The Voice and then find an anchor for Wednesday or Thursday (like what ABC did with The Middle and Modern Family a few years ago or Grey’s Anatomy before that) then they can build their way out of it.”
    Have you checked ABC ratings lately? That network is sinking like a rock.

  • Honey Badger

    steve sanders
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 9:14 AM
    NBC…….N othing B ut C ancellations

    @ steve sanders , I agree

  • andri

    I will openly. express my thoughts regarding smash. The maintop character probably participates in the mob. ™ namely kabbalah. (Britney spears. The deschanel sisters on fox) and Debra Leasing is scientology by means of scientology Caroline Kennedy and Margaret Hoover.debarring both could actually help the show move along.now,, channel 2 fox is a different story.I am expecting bones and new girl to go on.

  • rex

    @steve sanders lmaooo

  • HV

    Here is what I think will be canceled: Deception, Whitney, Guys With Kids, Up All Night, 1600 Penn, and Save Me (who knows if/when it will even ever air?)
    Dracula I think would replace Deception perfectly! It got 10 episodes, which works great there!
    I think that next season will be the last for both Parenthood and Smash.I think they will both air in the same timeslot. I think that the untitled Rand Ravich project will take that timeslot in the spring.
    MJF could take Whitney’s time slot. It will definately attract a lot of veiwers, even if it is terrible.
    Another new comedy goes after that in Guys With Kids’s timeslot.
    I think that this next season will be the last for Community. I think that it will get canceled after a short season in the fall, and get replaced by a new comedy.
    Two new comedies take 9:00 and 9:30 on Thursday. I think that The Gates will be at 9:00
    I think that 10:00 on Thursday will hold Dateline NBC in the fall and a new drama in January-May.
    I think that we can get two new comedies on Friday at 8:00 for most of the year, with Grimm taking over in April and May. I think that Grimm will still be at 9:00 in the fall though.
    Everything else which is not mentioned here is the same as this season. You may be wondering what I am thinking about Hannibal. I think it would make a fantastic summer series, with every season being 13 episodes.

  • Oliver

    @Diane

    30 Rock got solid ratings, admittedly in strong timeslots, at a time when NBC had bigger problems. 30 Rock was never a hit but it only became a bomb during its last two seasons.

    The show pretty much bombed in syndication.

  • DeanW

    Can you tell me what you think of my Schedule please:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA
    10:00 – Parenthood

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Whitney
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Parks & Recreation
    8:30 – Go On
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – Community
    10:00 – Hannibal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Dateline
    10:00 – Grimm

  • Oliver

    @DeanW
    10pm Friday is a dead timeslot. Putting Grimm there will kill the show.

    Moving Parks to 8 will kill it, which is something NBC can’t afford to do. I doubt they will moving Community to 9:30 either. If Community is renewed then it’s either used as mid-season spackle or put back at 8. The best case scenario is being bumped to 8:30.

    It will be a surprise if Revolution doesn’t return.

  • ravi

    @ben, see meringue

  • James

    Smash never should have gotten past the pilot,
    If ever these was a show that was ‘trying to hard’ it was Smash.

  • Hades

    Monday
    8-The Voice/Biggest Loser/The Voice
    9-The Voice/Biggest Loser/The Voice
    10-Revolution/New Drama (to start when TV2.0 starts)

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice Results/New Comedy/The Voice Results
    8.30-The Voice Results/New Comedy/The Voice Results
    9-Dracula/Crossbones
    10-Parenthood/New Drama

    Wednesday
    8-New Comedy
    8.30-New Comedy
    9-New Drama
    10-Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8-Exsisting Comedy
    8.30-Parks and Recs
    9-New Comedy
    9.30-New Comedy
    10-Law and Order:SVU

    Friday
    8-New Drama
    9-Grimm
    10-Dateline

  • James

    I love Smash, it is such a great show I was hooked from the first episode, it makes me sad that it could be cancelled, changing the night it is broadcast could make some difference, there have been shows with lower ratings that get renewed, so there’s always hope.

  • tjw

    @Honey Badger,

    Maybe NBC won’t get to CBS levels but, in case you didn’t notice, until about three weeks ago, NBC was actually ahead of CBS season-to-date. Now, NBC has dropped off and CBS got a nice Super Bowl bump, but NBC is still going to finish at least third, maybe even second in the yearly ratings. And were it not for the Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game, all four networks would likely have finished within a single rating point of each other.

    NBC has holes in its schedule, for sure, but to suggest that the only way to fix the network that a) isn’t in last and b) was the most watched network in the Fall is ludicrous.

  • Adam L.

    Go On and The New Normal will be renewed simultaneously. The later has a total retention from the first, which is absolutely great. So if The Voice raises Go On’s demos, it will raise The New Normal’s as well. It would be nuts to cancel the only line-up that granted NBC the number 1 spot last fall. Completely nuts. NBC may order a dozen new comedies but what can guarantee them that they won’t perform worse than Go On and The New Normal? At least these shows have proved to work just fine. Even if they are lead-in dependent… who isn’t? In my opinion Go On stands a bit more chances to get a full season renewal while TNN might just get a shorter list of episodes. Anyway, as soon as The Voice returns both shows will boost demos. This, and also the unforgettable fact that we’re talking of Matthew Perry and Ryan Murphy, will do the rest of the magics.

  • DeanW

    @ Oliver

    Thanks ! I just forgot Revolution.

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – Revolution
    10:00 – Parenthood / NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Whitney
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Community
    8:30 – Parks & Recreation
    9:00 – Go On
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Hannibal
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – Dateline

    Is that better ?

  • Bob

    I am gay and find The New Normal absolutely horrid. Get rid of the trash as fast as possible.

  • Honey Badger

    @ tjw, I don’t know where to start, but I know I will never change your mind – lets agree to disagree, you love NBC – and I am going by objective facts of 18-49 ratings. So you are comparing NBC favorably to CBS, yikes !! Count how many shows CBS has above a 2.0 18-49 rating versus NBC. Also you should check to see that going by 18-49 ratings almost all of NBC television shows would be cancelled if they were on CBS.
    Enough said there. Ratings mean ad dollars, ad dollars mean revenue for the network, with low and dropping ratings means NBC is in a bad position for profitability.

    As for your – until a few weeks ago NBC was doing well argument, it does not hold water. Add to the fact that the only thing holding up the overall ratings were two shows – NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice, and It is inevitable “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon
    latest rating for NBC shows now that NBC NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice is between seasons, almost all NBC shows are cancel worthy low .
    As many people predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, without “The Voice “ acting as a lead in to help other shows get better ratings, NBC would be lucky to get a show above a 2.0 18-49 rating. Looks like the predictions are true !

    I refer to Bill Gorman comments “And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.” And your earlier comment ““the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com”

    When looks at the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, and how the other shows have performed: the expensive “ Smash “tanked, “ Do No Harm “which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks, “Deception” tanked, and so many NBC shows have low and dropping ratings.

    At this point I have no idea what shows NBC will cancel as it looks like almost all their shows should be up for cancellation. If these shows were on CBS almost all of them would be cancelled.

    The latest rating for NBC shows now that NBC NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice is between seasons, are cancel worthy low for almost all NBC shows.
    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 1.2, The New Normal 1.1, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.3, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.6, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2
    As many people predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, without “The Voice “ acting as a lead in to help other shows get better ratings, NBC would be lucky to get a show above a 2.0 18-49 rating. Looks like the predictions are true !
    Example: “ Go On “.premieried with a 3.4 18-49 rating and went settled around a 2.4, without “the voice “ as a lead-in, Go On dropped to a 1.3.
    As predicted on tvbythenumbers.com by many long ago, the oversaturation of singing and talent shows will cause all these shows ratings and viewers to drop big time.
    Look at American Idol ratings, FOX American Idol 3.6 18-49 Rating 12.33 Viewers Live+SD (million)
    This shows that NBC is in big trouble.
    “The Voice “ and NBC NFL Sunday night Football “ without these two shows NBC would be having a big down year. It is inevitable “ The Voice “ratings will drop soon, like all the other oversaturated singing and talent shows, then watch NBC drop big time, as it is very dependent on “ The Voice “ for its ratings and lead-in help for other shows ratings.

    The Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has hard decisions to make at NBC, which shows should the Bear cancel or does the Bear cancel almost all the shows on NBC?
    The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed

    What would you do if you were in charge of NBC now?

  • toadytoady

    Is this honey badger person in permanent rewind?
    The information and insights are really useful,but why do you have to keep repeating yourself?

  • Oliver

    @DeanW

    I’d say that’s a reasonable schedule with nothing self-evidently insane (although I don’t like the prospects of the 9:30 Thursday comedy).

    NBC is in such disarray that you can’t really create a good schedule.

    I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we see bigger changes. I’m increasingly unconvinced that NBC can afford to only have a single cycle of TBL.

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