NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Honey Badger

    @ toadytoady , I was uses this information to answer a posters like tjw questions and statements. but I think it was a waste of time, like I said earlier” “@ tjw, I don’t know where to start, but I know I will never change your mind – lets agree to disagree, you love NBC – and I am going by objective facts like 18-49 ratings”
    I was using too much information and facts. I will try to summerize more in the future.

  • Brian J

    I’ll admit that I haven’t seen much of what Bryan Fuller has done, but his reputation is good enough that I’ll assume his show will be creatively strong. With that in mind, NBC should give it a better position, which is on Tuesdays. Short of some miraculous rebound, “Smash” is almost certainly dead. I don’t see why it would do that much worse on Thursdays, and since NBC’s goal right now is to get a hit wherever it can, why not give this show as strong a chance as possible?

  • Brian J

    @Honey Badger:

    That’s why I think we will see some major changes at NBC next season, both with the specifics shows offered and where they are placed.

  • Honey Badger

    Bye Bye NBC Smash 0.9 18-49 rating 3.29 Viewers (Millions), wow NBC spent a lot of money on a show that was called one of the most expensive on television to get terrible ratings. Who is making these decisions at NBC?
    Bye Bye NBC Go On 1.1 3 3.32
    Bye Bye NBC The New Normal 1.0 3.5

    the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. Will be canceling all these NBC shows soon. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
    NBC is in big trouble now

  • Honey Badger

    @ Brian J, I agree

    Brian J
    Posted February 20, 2013 at 8:42 AM
    “@Honey Badger: That’s why I think we will see some major changes at NBC next season, both with the specifics shows offered and where they are placed.

  • Oliver

    NBC is in a worse position now than when Greenblatt took over. How long until Comcast fires him?

  • toadytoady

    Its not a criticism Honey badger, I like reading your info etc…it was more an observation,thats all!

    Didnt people realise there was a clever game going on with NBC in the Fall. They made themselves look better than usual by mixing up reality shows/sports etc.Those shows made the averages look good, and looking good is what matters,not BEING good. I thought it was a brilliant move. It made NBC look successful.They should have kept on doing that all year.

    I think Smash was brought back as a personal interest more than anything to do with ratings. And thats why it hasnt worked.I dont think executive types are as objective to costs as they have us believe. I still think there is an element of human preference for certain shows.Smash is an example of a show pushed through against the odds because there was a personal interest in it at a high level.

  • Adam L.

    The New Normal is suffering from the drowning of Go On. Matthew Perry’s shows was absolutely affected for the lack of The Voice. It went down much more than TNN did. In fact, Murphy’s shows is gaining more in DVR than Go On is. In other words, all TNN needs is a better companion. TNN show should have always aired at an earlier time. Probably after The Voice. But I guess NBC thought Perry deserved it more? The damage is done. I still see plenty of factors to renew both shows, and my personal bet is that both shows will make the cut.

  • panda22

    someone at nbc is either in love with kat McPhee or wants to shag her, its the only explanation I can find for smash getting a second season.

  • Honey Badger

    @, toadytoady, were good, and thanks for the compliment “I like reading your info etc…it was more an observation,thats all!”

    I agree with you observations below.
    I always thought NBC obsession with “ Smash “was more of a personal thing than a business decision. To spend the money they spent on Smash (some have called one of the most expensive shows on television), and get the poor ratings last year, and then to renew the show and retool the show with different show runners, writers and staff, made no business sense at all.
    I think a lot of NBC decisions are made this way.

    toadytoady
    Posted February 20, 2013 at 9:08 AM
    Didnt people realise there was a clever game going on with NBC in the Fall. They made themselves look better than usual by mixing up reality shows/sports etc.Those shows made the averages look good, and looking good is what matters,not BEING good. I thought it was a brilliant move. It made NBC look successful.They should have kept on doing that all year.

    I think Smash was brought back as a personal interest more than anything to do with ratings. And thats why it hasnt worked.I dont think executive types are as objective to costs as they have us believe. I still think there is an element of human preference for certain shows.Smash is an example of a show pushed through against the odds because there was a personal interest in it at a high level.

  • tjw

    @Honey Badger,

    I don’t disagree that NBC is in rough shape. The issue I have is with how to fix it. I don’t think they have to scrap everything and start anew. They’ve got a solid foundation in The Voice and they need to figure out how to build out of it. Obviously, the three month hiatus was a terrible idea and they need to figure out how to fill that hole, but you seem to be suggesting that they should cancel everything outside of The Voice and Revolution and that’s just crazy. It makes more sense to build on your current successes, even if it means keeping some scheduling spackle (like Parenthood, Chicago Fire, and Parks & Rec) that probably wouldn’t make it on other networks but can at least fill holes.

    It just doesn’t make sense to debut a dozen new shows in the fall because they just don’t have the advertising time/budget to effectively promote those shows. They’ll be far better off finding two or three really great projects to push and to really support and try to build them rather than to try and throw a bunch of different crap against the wall and hope something sticks.

  • steve sanders

    I just saw where Whitney cummings e show was cancelled,hopefully nbc will follow and get her the hell out of here.

  • TVWatcher

    @Honey Badger

    NBC renewed Smash because their ratings weren’t below 3 million. If you look at the past season or two at NBC, all of their drama shows that were renewed never went below the 3 million mark. NBC’s expectations are far below every other networks. It is much easier to get renewed on that network. Smash never went below three million, hence the renewal. As for the retooling, they simply retooled it because of the viewer backlash. By doing that, their intention was to get the ratings up. Now, if it goes below the three million mark this season, now it will be cancelled.

  • MJDB

    My takes:

    The Biggest Loser-Certain Renewal
    Deception-Certain Cancellation
    Betty White’s Off Their Rockers-Likely Renewal
    Go On-Likely Renewal
    The New Normal-Likely Cancellation
    Smash-Likely Cancellation
    Whitney-On the Bubble
    Guys With Kids-Likely Cancellation
    Law and Order: SVU-Likely Renewal
    Chicago Fire-Certain Renewal
    Community-On the Bubble
    Parks and Recreation-Certain Renewal
    1600 Penn-Certain Cancellation
    Parenthood-Certain Renewal
    Up All Night-Certain Cancellation
    Grimm-Certain Renewal
    Revolution-Certain Renewal

  • Ben

    @merranga
    when I ask for thoughts, I meant in the form of advice, comments, suggestions. It isn’t helpful to have someone saying “nope”, maybe @ravi can add more to his comment.
    Also, “Thoughts on my schedule above?” isn’t a yes or no question.

  • Ben

    @ravi
    can you elaborate on your answer, please

  • Honey Badger

    @ tjw, I don’t really know what NBC should do now, that’s why I keep asking everyone if you where the President of NBC what would you do now?

    I do think if they do not do something big next year will be big trouble for NBC and they could be heading into CW territory.

    At this point I have no idea what shows NBC will cancel as it looks like almost all their shows should be up for cancellation (see 18 – 49 ratings below). If these shows were on CBS almost all of them would be cancelled. And with all broadcast television dropping, and competition is getting stronger and taking away their viewers Cable, Hulu, Netflix, the internet, Univision, Telemundo, and others are all taking away their viewers, NBC needs to do something.

    And I do know that it is inevitable that “The Voice” ratings will sink, due to the oversaturation of singing and talent shows. When that happens if NBC does not have something in place, they will sink to CW levels. And that time may be soon, “The Voice” is getting two new judges and we have seen from American idol, and The X Factor that new judges can really hurt the show’s ratings. Also “The Voice” has not produced a star or even a major artist, and that will hurt the show.

    I do know that NBC is a disaster, and they keep getting worse by the day. The ratings are so low and dropping it is scary. And if you renew these low rated shows, you know they are going to sink further next year.
    Do No Harm* canceled, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash, The New Normal , Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, Whitney , Deception , Go On, Up All Night, Community – all should be canceled. That’s 11 shows with low ratings that should be canceled. And yes “Go On” at 1.1 and Community at 1.1 should be canceled.
    Add to that – The Office final season, 30 Rock* final season complete. That is 13 shows that need to be replaced.

    Additional, NBC needs to do something about Friday, Saturday and Sunday and their cutting cost low rated shows, NBC looks like they have just given up. Look at what NBC did with their complete weekend line up of shows: Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4

    latest rating for NBC shows now that NBC NFL Sunday Night Football is done for the year and The Voice is between seasons, are cancel worthy low for almost all NBC shows.
    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2

    A question to everyone: If you where the President of NBC what would you do now?

  • Ben

    NBC if they cancelled almost all their comedies

    Monday
    8-The Voice
    10-Revolution

    Tuesday
    8-The Voice
    9-NEW DRAMA
    10-Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8-NEW DRAMA
    9-SVU
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Thursday
    8-Parks and Recreation
    8:30-Go On
    9-Community
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10-Chixago Fire

  • steve

    If I were NBC:

    CANCEL:

    Smash: Sorry folks, but a 0.9 rating in the 18-49 demo is certain death, especially for a network like NBC.

    Whitney: If she’d only chose a role in 2 Broke Girls which she co-created. LOL.

    Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, Deception, Up All Night will all be canceled. I doubt it, but I just hope NBC might renew The New Normal (my pick for best new sitcom of the season).

  • RS

    To the Writers of Smash:
    If you are going to write a show about a plucky ingenue who triumphs in the big city, it would behoove you to make said ingenue at least a little likable. And if you are going to sell casting for Marilyn Monroe, and your choices are a gorgeous, curvy, blond bombshell who exudes sexuality(Ivy)and said ingenue who has the body of a swizzle stick and exudes the sexuality of a piece of chalk, you could have made this more believable. I read and watch a lot of science fiction and am perfectly willing to suspend disbelief, but your show’s choice was going too far. I stopped watching the minute the swizzle stick got the part.

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