NBC: 'Smash' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 14, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :cry: :cry: 0.76
The New Normal :oops: 0.79
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.82
Whitney :| :| :| 0.87
Deception :oops: 0.88
Go On :) :) :) :) 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Community :| :| :| 0.98
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Office final season 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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This is a special "short week" holiday edition of the NBC Index, having been written the evening of Friday, February 15 with ratings through only February 14.

Community stole the NBC headline last week. This week Smash gets a turn. Its 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating immediately made it "likely to be canceled". Ah, the limelight.

Speaking of Community, its 1.2 rating on Thursday night, has me dropping it from "certain to be renewed" to "toss up". As always noted, with few data points, predictions can change quickly.

And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney's 1.2 rating also move it to a "toss up", and Go On's lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to "likely to be renewed". Ye Gods.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Chris Parker

    I love Smash, I think it airs too late…

  • Rebecca

    I like Smash but it’s all over the place creatively…I wonder if Broadway shows suffer all the same (or most of the same) setbacks that Bombshell is going through. If it ends, it’s just one less show for me to watch. Not that attached to it any more but I will watch what’s left.

  • Honey Badger

    The difference between CBS and NBC.
    CBS “Rules of Engagement” 2.9 18-49 rating 8.19 Viewers (millions).
    And “Rules of Engagement” cannot find a permanent time slot on CBS; they use it as a midseason replacement show to fill in for shows that are cancelled.

    If a show got ratings like this on NBC, it would be their top rated show outside of The Voice and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football.

    Of course CBS having so many shows with good ratings makes decisions harder to make for CBS. If they cancel a show like “Rules of Engagement”, can they replace it with a show that will do as well in the ratings? And can they find a show that they can put in different time slots and still get good ratings like “Rules of Engagement”?

    This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC, and harder decisions to make on CBS . The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

  • UncleRob

    How can “The New Normal” be a one and odious and annoying “Whitney” be a three?

    Are you all freaking nuts?

  • Andrew

    @Data: You come across as ignorant and homophobic the way you spoke of TNN. Its exactly that kind of ignorance that shows like TNN are trying to break down 2.

  • Recognizing Truth

    I think NBC will keep at least 3 possibly 4 veteran comedies and use them as mid-season replacements or a couple of them could make the fall schedule. I think it will be P&R for sure, Community final season, Whitney, and possibly either Guys with Kids or Go On or both. It really depends on if NBC expands its comedies I expect them to expand by bringing in a 2-hour multi-cam block and they will build it around Sean Hayes’ new comedy.

    NBC might end the 2-hour single-cam block on Thursdays and just open up 2 separate hours of single-cams next season. NBC will bring in two one-hour shows probably SVU and another drama that’s either a vet or a new drama. I expect Chicago Fire to remain where its at on Wednesdays.

    Also another really good wild card out there is Deception, this show could be their scandal maybe not as big but maybe get to a Parenthood level in a season or two. It’s really steady on Mondays, since most shows on the network rate low I don’t see Deception as a problem getting a second season as a mid-season option.

    Smash is another wild card, just like Up All Night, NBC really likes this show no matter how low it rates so this can go either way.

  • Ultima

    @Honey Badger
    I do think if they do not do something big next year will be big trouble for NBC and they could be heading into CW territory.

    Nonsense.

    CBS is currently the top network, with the Super Bowl, and has a 3.2 season average; ABC is lowest amongst the big four with a 2.2 average – a difference of 1.0.

    The difference between NBC and the CW is twice that. NBC is not even remotely in danger of hitting CW ratings levels. To even make the suggestion undermines your argument.

  • Ultima

    @Andrew
    Its exactly that kind of ignorance that shows like TNN are trying to break down 2.</i.

    Speaking of ignorance, it's "too" not "2."

  • Honey Badger

    @ Ultima, Have you checked NBC latest ratings? Did you see how many shows are in the low 1′s or below in the 18-49 ratings? I am not looking at seasons ratings; I am looking at where they are now, trends, and where they are heading. And yes they are heading to CW territory based on where they are now and where they are trending.

    I give you Bill Gorman comments: 1. “And only on the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, does Whitney’s 1.2 rating also move it to a “toss up”, and Go On’s lowest rating of 1.3 now elevates it to “likely to be renewed”. Ye Gods.” 2. ““the complete collapse of NBC spring ratings …. NBC’s scripted show average the last three weeks has hovered around a 1.5. That means shows that average a 1.3 have a reasonably good chance of being renewed. Let that sink in for a second. Yikes.” Bill Gorman /tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com”

    When looks at the ratings disaster that is 2013 NBC sitcoms, and how the other shows have performed: the expensive “ Smash “tanked, “ Do No Harm “which lasted two weeks after premiering with the lowest adults 18-49 rating for an in season scripted show on the four big English broadcast networks, “Deception” tanked, and so many NBC shows have low and dropping ratings.

    Additional, NBC needs to do something about Friday, Saturday and Sunday and their cutting cost low rated shows, NBC looks like they have just given up. Look at what NBC did with their complete weekend line up of shows: Friday: NBC Dateline (8-10PM) 1.3, NBC Rock Center With Brian Williams 1.1 Saturday: NBC American Ninja Warrior 0.6, NBC Chicago Fire -R 0.4, NBC Saturday Night Live (10-11PM)- -R 0.7 Sunday: NBC Dateline 1.0, NBC Betty White’s Off Their Rockers – R 0.9, NBC Saturday Night Live in the 90s (9-11PM)- R 1.4

    NBC shows 18-49 ratings : “American Ninja Warrior” 0.7, Do No Harm* canceled 0.7, Animal Practice* canceled, Smash 0.9, The New Normal 1.0, 1600 Penn 1.1, Community 1.1, Guys With Kids 1.2, Whitney 1.2, “Rock Center with Brian Williams” 1.2, Deception 1.1, Go On 1.1, Up All Night * retooling show 1.3, 30 Rock * final season complete 1.4, “Dateline NBC” 1.4, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers 1.4, Grimm * Friday, 11/16/2012 1.6, Parenthood 1.7, Parks & Recreation 1.5, Law & Order: SVU 1.5, The Office * final season 2.1, Chicago Fire 1.9, The Biggest Loser 2.1, Revolution *Monday, 11/12/2012 2.6, The Voice averaged 4.3 , NBC NFL Sunday Night Football averaged 8.2

    The difference between CBS and NBC.
    CBS “Rules of Engagement” 2.9 18-49 rating 8.19 Viewers (millions).
    And “Rules of Engagement” cannot find a permanent time slot on CBS; they use it as a midseason replacement show to fill in for shows that are cancelled.

    If a show got ratings like this on NBC, it would be their top rated show outside of The Voice and NBC NFL Sunday Night Football.

    Of course CBS having so many shows with good ratings makes decisions harder to make for CBS. If they cancel a show like “Rules of Engagement”, can they replace it with a show that will do as well in the ratings? And can they find a show that they can put in different time slots and still get good ratings like “Rules of Engagement”?

    This is why the Cancellation Bear has on Twitter via @TheCancelBear has plenty of shows to cancel on NBC, and harder decisions to make on CBS . The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

  • Honey Badger

    @ Ultima, WOW, you seriously do want to use “The Voice” on NBC as a lead-in for other shows? Have you not noticed the disaster that NBC ratings have turned into when “The Voice” finished last season?

    Oliver
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 2:46 PM
    @Ultima Something new has to go after The Voice, otherwise they’re just wasting that giant lead-in

    Ultima
    Posted February 19, 2013 at 3:20 PM
    @Oliver “Something new has to go after The Voice, otherwise they’re just wasting that giant lead-in.”

    There’s a new drama in that slot in the spring. I guess from one point of view, it’s a waste of the lead-in, but I think the overall ratings for the night would be higher than if The Voice aired at 8pm

  • KT

    It was officially announced that Arnett has signed on for a CBS multicam pilot. However, the same article also stated that the potential series “is in second position to NBC’s Up All Night”. What that basically means is if Up All Night is renewed, it would take precedence over the CBS pilot.

    My question is, on what planet do folks actually think UAN will be renewed? The show is dead.

  • Suzy

    Well…we may not be employed by the big 3 networks but we can’t do any worse can we?

  • James

    NBC scripted shows season averages:

    Go On: 2.26 in the demo with 6.14 million.
    The Office: 2.08 in the demo with 4.20 million.
    Chicago Fire: 1.85 in the demo with 6.58 million.
    Law & Order: 1.77 in the demo with 6.50 million.
    The New Normal: 1.75 in the demo with 4.61 million.
    Parks & Rec: 1.68 in the demo with 3.47 million.
    Betty: 1.64 in the demo with 5.67 million.
    Community: 1.55 in the demo with 3.32 million.
    Deception: 1.40 in the demo with 3.91 million.
    Whitney: 1.34 in the demo with 3.97 million.
    Guys With Kids: 1.34 in the demo with 3.86 million.

    I wonder if they (NBC) will take these “full” season numbers into account, or if they will just guide themselves for the current year.

  • Aeiouy

    I love comedies first and foremost. Several years ago when two and a half men was the reigning sitcom and there were almost no sitcoms on tv. Over the years I have been a fan of many NBC comedies.

    As of this season though Parks and Rec and Whitney are the only two sitcoms on NBC worth watching. I have fairly low standards and will give all sitcoms a chance, so I don’t say it lightly.

    I doubt they can afford to blow up their whole schedule. Part of the problem is the cycle of removing shows to replace them with new shows that have to start from zero. How many of the best sitcoms in history peaked in their first year. Very few, if any. All you do by canceling these shows is guarantee the next round is lower.

    Keeping more shows for more than one season is not a guarantee for success but it gives you a better shot than an entire new production who doesn’t even know what they are doing for the first season.

    Put it this way. What NBC is doing now is not working and the leeway NBC has given to 30 rock, community. Whitney and others but the gamble is will a show who had a full season to grow and build be better than a brand new show. You have to take this on a case by case but I think NBC will renew a scripted show next year that is under a 1

  • SarahL

    @RS

    So true. Smash’s Karen devotion is typical of Hollywood’s love for the mediocre and thinness over genuine talent. Goes to show that Marilyn Monroe would have been overlooked if she was trying to be a star today.

  • Chibgchong

    Rather upset thy guys with kids is doing so badly. Granted it has it’s week points but it’s still funnier than at least half the comedies on air.

  • Brian I

    Why does deception only have one face?

  • Holly

    @Brian,

    Why does deception only have one face?

    Because it is certain to be canceled.

  • Dima

    NBC schedule for next season:

    Monday
    8:00 – The voice
    10:00 – New Drama

    Tuesday
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – New Comedy (MJF comedy)
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8:00 – New Comedy
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    Thursday
    8:00 – Community
    8:30 – Parks & Recreation
    9:00 – Revolution
    10:00 – New Drama

    Friday
    8:00 – New Drama
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – Dateline

    Sunday
    Football

  • DaxJackson

    Poor Smash, but yeah, this season is horrible atm.

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