Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Red Jane

    Beauty & Beast have been wasting the golden slot after TVD – CW should move them wherever and give a chance to Cult. True that slot did not save The Secret Circle last year but why wouldn’t you try if B&B are clearly a wast of space…

  • m&m

    omg OUAT is Certain Renewal thanks god i hope it wont drop any further..

  • Cyrax86

    Wonder what’s gonna happen with Body of Proof, last year it already “cheated death” and with this season it’ll still only have 42 episodes if I’m not wrong, so that’s still only halfway through syndication…

    The New Normal is as good as dead, by the time The Voice comes back, it’ll only have like 4 airings left, so it won’t matter much. Same goes for Go On but they can’t cancel everything…

  • Nathan

    I think you forgot to add “The Neighbors” on this table..

  • Nathan

    Nevermind!

  • CBSviewer

    I hope TGW will be canceled and CSI: NY is too good to end.

  • staceych

    Just thinking out loud….

    If I remember correctly the only show to do semi-well after Vampire Diaries was Supernatural. They were paired during SNs 5th season, and if I recall there, SN’s ratings were down compared to the previous year and they weren’t holding as much of VD’s ratings as they should have, and they have been the ONLY show to perform even SEMI-WELL after VD.

    Nikkita–not so much
    Secret Circle –not so much
    Beauty and the Beast –not so much

    Now, before someone jumps me and claims that I want SN after VD, I don’t. I’m quite happy with the Arrow/SN pairing.

    But it occurred to me after I read this article, that yes, the retention out of VD is ATROCIOUS, but then again, so has everything else they’ve put there. Could it be that none of these shows fit with VD? Could that be some of the problem? Different audience. In a time slot that is KILLER! Thursday at 9 is rough. SN fans have the battle scars to prove it ?

    Shrugs. Just wanted to put that out there.

  • HandSanitizer

    @Red Jane
    “Beauty & Beast have been wasting the golden slot after TVD – CW should move them wherever and give a chance to Cult. True that slot did not save The Secret Circle last year but why wouldn’t you try if B&B are clearly a wast of space”

    i couldn’t agreed more. B&tB should swap the timeslot with Cult. B&tB have had a chance at Thurs 9/8c timeslot and it failed. why wasting this timeslot to a show that unlikely to survive this season. they should use B&tB timeslot to safe a show that aired in their death slot.

    Sometime, i think Tv network exec. are just plain stupid (mainly goes to theCW, NBC and ABC). all 3 of them put their new show in their network daeth slot (CW-EOMD & Cult, NBC-Do No Harm & Hannibal, ABC- Last Resort & Zero Hour) rather than use their strong rating shows to break that timeslot curse!!

  • BatbFan

    Batb :-(

  • PurpleDrazi

    I’m not sure about BaTB being Likely Cancellation if for no other reason than the CW has renewed some shows with really low ratings in the past.

    I don’t care either way since I don’t watch anything on CW but the ratings race among it’s shows sure has been interesting to watch.

  • Mari

    The only thing that I disagree is Nashville in the certain renewal category.

  • DD

    So basically, the CW bubble race is between Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?? Cult is dead, Beauty and the Beast has terrible retention, 90210′s only hope is a 13 episode Friday 9 final season, which I doubt is gonna happen.

  • Shepherd

    I would have to list Smash, Touch, and Cult as certain cancellation. Given BOP’s unique tax status, I’d only list it as likely.

    I can see given TCD a better chance than BaTB, but I’d still have them both as likely canceled. Maybe just give BaTB its own category, “more likely canceled than TCD”.

    I still have trouble listing anything that has yet to return this spring as certain renewal, even though I’m fairly certain Grimm and Revolution will be renewed, they’d still automatically be placed in the likely renewal until after their first spring episodes air.

    I’ve had Nashville listed as only likely, however with every passing episode it draws closer to certain renewal. I’m not entirely sure where I would place it this week, but I guess that means I would probably just hold off another week or two before giving it the inevitable upgrade.

  • Dan

    Hawaii 5-0 = Certain Renewal

    I agree with Beauty and the Beast, is last year’s Secret Circle plain and simple, only its doing worse. It has a great lead in and gets similar numbers to Nikita which has no lead in.

  • RockStarz

    When The CW renews BATB then it’s like a slap directly in the faces of the TSC-Fans.

    They cancelled TSC because it couldn’t hold the audience of TVD and was to weak to change the timeslot (and yeah, it was expensive).

    But look at BATB, it is doing worse than TSC last year… CW, just cancel it already…

  • Jonay

    Why not just renew Beauty & The Beast and Put in on Friday 8 then NIKITA ?????

  • Martin

    Couldn’t agree more about the retention problem out of the vampire diaries, but what better way to fix retention problem out of a show than to order a spinoff, worked for the ncis’s and could work for the originals, and yes I know their is probably period to the contrary too, but hopefully if it is a good show unlike criminal minds spinoff it well work. And if it doesn’t work, nothing will.

  • Martin

    @jonay

    Whatever about renewing batb, early this season has proven nikita at friday at 9 won’t work.

  • Kyle

    I think the New Normal and Whitney will be renewed.

  • nicola83

    Hart of Dixie is LIKELY RENEWAL

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