Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Dan

    @Micha – I agree about CSI NY and I doubt Golden Boy will be a success but if it is TGW and Mentalist is gone. If not then 1 of the 2 is gone. I think you’re a bit pessimistic about NBC, in terms of SVU, they may as well keep it since for every good drama they have (Grimm, Chicago Fire, Revolution, Parenthood, SVU) they have just as many flops (Smash, Deception, Do No Harm) They may as well keep SVU. Same with Whitney, while its not doing great only 2 comedies are doing better (The Office and Parks) 1 of which is ending and Almost Every other comedy is doing worse, Go ON (Doing About the same), Community, The New Normal, Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, 30 Rock (ended), Animal Practice (cancelled), Up All Night (basically cancelled). Thats why Whitney is considered bubble, all of there comedies are doing horribly but NBC wont cancel every one so Whitney as somewhat of a chance.

    I agree that Nashville is more likely (Castle, Revenge and Suburgatory should be certain), but I think someway or another we’ll see it renewed. Its ABC’s “save face” drama since Last Resort, 666 Park Avenue, and Zero Hour have all flopped.

    I agree The Cleveland Show is certain since FOX is basically burning through the rest of the episodes quickly. There’s 15 episodes left to air and if FOX had any intention on having the series return theyd save some for next season to be paired with a short 13 episode 5th season which they havent ordered yet and the deadline has passed.

  • BPKK

    Does anyone know if Carrie Diaries could have gotten more episodes this season if they had premiered with Arrow or even Beauty type numbers? Or was Carrie held until mid-season so they only had to produce 13 episodes with the expense of filming in NY?

    And why do people think the CW will leave Fridays for repeats this fall? The past two years Supernatural was there and pulled 0.7 and didn’t Pedowitz say that he wanted to increase the number of original programming hours. Sure it would save Warners or CBS the expense of producing a show to air there, but with the ratings for CW shows in general, that would be true of most every night for this network.

  • Maya

    Well, if Retention is being considerated to put B&B in the Likely cancelled option, I think competition should be considered too. Thursday 9 pm has the biggest competiton, AI, Grey’s Anatomy and POI.
    After VD, B&B is the CW show facing the toughest competition.

  • Dave

    @BPKK

    Carrie was held back because Gossip Girl had to finish its run in the Fall. Plus CW was too busy sending all the dollars on Arrow in the Fall so they kept their highly anticipated prequel for midseason to get it out of the fall clutter. It still bombed though ;)

  • Dan S

    Kind of bitter irony that 2 NBC shows on the bubble Whitney & Go On with their low demos are being discussed as having a chance of coming back. Harry’s Law with a similar demo but much larger viewing audience was axed so why should these shows be renewed ? Go On might get a 2nd chance assuming it rebounds when The Voice returns but if it doesn’t I expect it be canned along with TNN.

  • BPKK

    @Dave

    But why did they choose Carrie Diaries? They could have held back Emily Owens or Beauty. I’m wondering if it was too costly for them to produce more than 13 episodes of Carrie since it’s filmed in NY.

    Did it have to pull Arrow type numbers to cover the cost of a 22 episode second season filmed in NY? Would they consider renewing it for only a 13 episode 2nd season and having it share a spot with a 13 episode order for the Selection or Reign.

  • Dan

    @Kavyn – That schedule doesn’t seem like something CW would do. I could see ABC, FOX or NBC making drastic changes, but unless CW has a lot of hits this season which they didn’t the schedule may be more like this.

    Monday
    8 – The Carrie Diaries (13 eps maybe timeshared unless it does well)
    9 – 90210 (final season October-December) / New Show (The Hundred)

    Tuesday
    8 – Hart of Dixie
    9 – New Show (The Selection)

    Wednesday
    8 – Arrow
    9 – New Show (The Tomorrow People)

    Thursday
    8 – The Vampire Diaries
    9 – New Show (The Originals)

    Friday
    8 – Nikita
    9 – Supernatural

    Seems more predictable but CW can use Wed and Thurs to launch shows and Tuesday to launch a new show behind Hart of Dixie or maybe flip flop HOD with a new series at 8. Mondays are wrecked for CW so the best they can do until midseason is be safe and air Carrie Diaries and 90210. From 2010-2012 Fridays werent used as a scrap heap. Smallville and Supernatural worked on Fridays I think Nikita and Supernatural would be a good Friday combo. Supernatural seems like it could go on for maybe 2 more seasons at best.

  • Dan

    @BPKK – I think it was less about cost for Carrie Diaries and more about scheduling. Emily Owens seemed more compatible with Hart of Dixie (That combo failed and EO was axed), Arrow seemed a good combo with Supernatural (That combo worked great) and BATB worked ok behind Vampire Diaries. CW figured that the teen drama Carrie Diaries could succeed Gossip Girl as a teen drama paired with 90210 and since Gossip Girl had a short fall season, CD could be a midseason series.

  • steve

    Hopefully they will give the mentalist a final shorten season if they decide its time is up otherwise we will never find out who red john truly is.

  • SJ

    My predictions:

    Fox: The Cleveland Show, Touch – certain cancellation
    Glee, The Mindy Project – likely renewal
    Raising Hope, New Girl, The Following – certain renewal

    CBS: Vegas, CSI:NY, Rules of Engagement (not based on ratings) – certain cancellation
    The Mentalist – bubble (if Undercover Boss gets a fall run, cancelled, if not, renewed)
    The Good Wife – likely renewal (also not based on ratings)
    The rest – certain renewal

    ABC: Happy Endings, Zero Hour – certain cancellation (HE could continue elsewhere)
    Body of Proof, Malibu Country, The Neighbors – bubble (BoP has cheated death before, MC could go if TN gets a Friday reprieve)
    Last Man Standing, Nashville – likely renewal
    Revenge, Castle, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, Once Upon a Time, Suburgatory, The Middle, Modern Family – certain renewal

    NBC: Whitney, Guys With Kids, Up All Night, 1600 Penn, The New Normal, Smash, Deception – certain cancellation
    Community – likely cancellation
    Go On – bubble (should be certain cancellation, but it’s NBC’s pet project)
    Law and Order:SVU, Chicago Fire, Parks and Recreation, Parenthood, Revolution, Grimm – certain renewal

    CW: 90210, Cult – certain cancellation
    The Carrie Diaries – likely cancellation
    Hart of Dixie, Nikita – likely renewal

    Out of the shows still left to premiere – call me a cynic – but I don’t expect a single one to survive. The only one with an outside chance of getting a second-season renewal is How to Live with Your Parents but I think we’re pretty much already looking at the pool of candidates for renewal for next season.

  • SJ

    @Dan

    I agree about CSI NY and I doubt Golden Boy will be a success but if it is TGW and Mentalist is gone. If not then 1 of the 2 is gone.

    Not necessarily.

    Cancelling CSI:NY and Golden Boy frees up one drama slot.
    Cancelling Vegas frees up another one.
    Holding Undercover Boss for mid-season opens up another one.

    That’s three, the number of dramas CBS usually premieres each fall.

    So it’s still possible for TGW and TM to both come back. If, however, CBS gives Undercover Boss a full season and, with it, a fall run (which I definitely think they should), one of them is toast. My bet is, The Mentalist. It’s older, more expensive, and isn’t generating CBS any added revenue as they don’t benefit from syndicating it, unlike with The Good Wife.

  • Just Desserts

    I don’t get The Neighbors comments about it being a “bubble show”

    It has 5 episodes left before the season ends so I doubt that it has any foreseeable risk of cancellation.

    (I doubt that ABC is going to cancel it after how tough they campaigned for it and now that it is finally going to finish a season. Suck it Haters!!! :D )

  • Dan

    @SJ – But what if CBS expands comedy? Then they lose a drama slot. Also my guess is CBS may cut their losses and leave the cheap Undercover Boss fridays at 8 since all new shows on Fridays flopped.

    I agree with you’re CBS predictions but if I have to choose it would be Good Wife over Menatlist. Maybe they will keep both or cancel both but its GW over TM because CBS owns TGW.

    In terms of you’re ABC guesses I agree and with NBC I agree but I would think Whitney has a slight edge over Community. In a network where all comedy is crap NBC needs to salvage something, besides Go On and Parks, Whitney looks like a candidate for another night and maybe Community.

    With Fox I agree with everything but I can say 100% that Glee and Mindy Project will be on the schedule this fall. Glee will have likely a final season and Mindy Project FOX will return because its doing OK enough behind New Girl. Id be very surprised not to see Mindy or Glee back.

    With CW I see Carrie Diaries as likely renewal, I think CW will save it.

    @Dan S – Its not really ironic it shows more how many less people are watching NBC without The Voice on. With both 30 Rock and The Office gone, that leaves NBC to rebuild Thursdays and comedy in general. They won’t just renew Parks and Recreation and cancel everything else, unfortunately all other comedies are performing like garbage. The best will return, my guess on the best will be Go On since it once performed well on Tuesdays, Whitney because it has done the best of all comedies and because its multi camera, and maybe Community for a final season. All other likely cancelled comedies are freshman shows (The New Normal, Guys With Kids, and 1600 Penn) are just first year flops that NBC doesn’t have to bring back. Its sad that out of NBC’s 6 returning comedies from last season, only 1 is a guarantee returning show and out of NBC’s 5 new fall comedies only 1 is somewhat likely to return.

  • Dan

    @Just Desserts – Its a bubble show because its less abut ratings and more because of the uncertainty of what ABC will do with LMS, MC, HE, The Neighbors, as well as upcoming comedies HTLWYP and The Family Tools. The only certain renewals are The Middle, Modern Family, and Suburgatory. I personally cant predict if ABC will save The Neighbors. I figured it was a goner early on because of its Better With You type of retention (It dips from The Middle and then Modern Family does much better then TN)

    However its done better than Happy Endings, Malibu Country, Last Man Standing, and pretty much all of NBC and FOX’s comedies even with the OK retention So that is the case to keep it. My guess is ABC will try to keep it. Again The Neighbors is 50/50 being closer to the renewal side of the bubble but at this point its impossible to predict.

  • Lacey

    Beauty and the Beast is such an awesome show- It can’t get cancelled- it’s just beginning!!!!

  • Jane Elliot

    @Robert:
    “I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its products.”

    I’m guessing that ‘products’ was supposed to be ‘prospects’?

  • Jane Elliot

    Wow… have BATB fans officially replaced Chuck fans as the craziest?

  • Nick

    @ Dan

    My guess is if The Selection would be good with Hart of Dixie maybe CW will air it at 9.

    Nah. The Arrow/Supernatural combination has shown that a new show on the CW leading into a veteran works. In this case, it would definitely work. Hart of Dixie has shown it can survive at 9 pm, while The Selection would be geared towards a teen audience, so it should be at 8. This doesn’t work with all shows, like TCD/90210. 90210 is not a show that would do well at a later time, so TCD flopped. I would not recommend moving, say, The Vampire Diaries, but I could definitely see The Selection/Hart of Dixie.

    @Kavyn

    That’s a good schedule (from a fantasy schedule standpoint, I agree with Dan that it’s unlikely to happen), except for I tiny thing: The Tommorow People & The Hundred should be switched, as The Hundred seems like it’d be compatible with Supernatural, and TTP seems like it would be more compatible with Arrow (and it stars Steven Amell’s cousin).

    @SJ

    I have a bunch of problems with that list but this is the main one:

    Whitney […] – certain cancellation

    Why? It’s doing perfectly fine for low-rated NBC. It’s steady at a little less than the scripted average. Out of all of NBC’s terribly-rated sitcoms, it’s the only one that’s not lead-in dependent. There’s very little reason for it to be in any danger, let alone certain cancellation territory.

  • Justin121

    Bueaty and the Underwear Model is funnier than Floppity and the Beast :D

    The Carrie Diaries is this year’s Hart of Dixie.

    The CW just got lucky with Arrow, this year’s Ringer.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I’m guessing that ‘products’ was supposed to be ‘prospects’?

    Indeed. You can take the boy out of marketing… Fixed, thanks.

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