Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Fran Amado

    I don’t agree with your assessment of Beauty and the Beast having the best lead-in. Actually it is up against shows that pull huge ratings. Other CW shows in this time slot struggled or were cancelled. Unfortunately the show lost some viewing due to the first 2 episodes. But since then the episodes have exciting with thrilling and romantic story lines. The show has a huge following outside the US and in the social media. A fact that is not reflected by archaic Nielson ratings. I believe this show has tremendous potential and possibilities. A change in time slot would certainly give it a chance to grow its target audience. But at the end of the day, the show’s fate will rest the execs at the CW. We hope they have the vision to see its potential and not drop the axe.

  • Claudia

    OMG people can be really mean in this boards. At the end of the day all the hating on each other’s shows just show how dump you all are, the tv executives will burst everybody’s bubble at the end of a season Nikitas, HOD.s, BATB etc. all they will care is about the money.

    So far my bubble and my attachment to BATB, makes me be a biased and all I can say is that BATB is going for a second season, show cant be cancelled it just started to get better and better. We can be crazy fans as you called us but we believe the show has potential.

  • Just Desserts

    @Dan

    The retention doesn’t really matter in the bigger picture, the average ratings and the production cost is what matters in the long run, both of which The Neighbors got the edge.

  • RS

    Well, I am of two minds about Beauty and the Male Model. First, it is an obvious slap in the face to fans of the trope. One critic described it as self-parody if the CW had a sense of humor. “OMG, he has a little scar on his face; on this network he is a beast; get the pitchforks.” I realize he is supposed to “hulk out.” Then call it Beauty and the Hulk. Pretty boy is not a beast and, again, it is an insult to the rich, beautiful history of a story in which love triumphs over physical deformity. I’m sorry if this is you’all’s introduction to this. Find the animated B&B. It is amazing. And I doubt you’ll be able to accept Mr. Pretty as the beast after seeing it. I mean what? The actor refused the hours of make-up Ron Perlman endured to give us the 80’s series (that’s romance, people – George R.R. Martin rules).
    On the other hand, I can see the show renewed and placed on Friday. If you fans are right and you follow the show, it will succeed (like SPN); if you are wrong, it will die in its second season.

  • RS

    Oh, and in case anyone wants to call me a hater, I don’t really care. My beloved SPN is safe. Arrow, a show that I like, is safe. I’m happy.

  • chris23

    Nashville should be a Bubble show not a certain renewal..

    Mindy Project should not be listed as a bubble show, personally IMHO I think it should be likely cancellation, but bubble is understandable. The comedy has been all over the place hitting lows of 1.3-1.5s which was barely better than Ben and Kate. I know the show has ticked up as of late, but it still isn’t impressive. Mindy hit a 2 demo for the premiere and since then has failed to do that. Fox has a lot of problems with declined ratings and new shows not performing great. But Sundays have All animation which is solid. Bones and Following are doing great on Mon. Xfactor and AI will take fall and winter /spring schedules for 2 hours on Wed and 1 hour on Thursday each. The other hour which is glee will be renewed. I don’t know what to think about Fridays I know Touch will be canceled. Not sure about Kitchen Nightmares. Tuesdays Raising Hope will be back for syndication and New Girl is the #1 comedy so its returning leaving 2 half hour slots available. So as I see it Fox will need 1 hour replaced on Friday Nights, 1 hour on Tuesday Nights, Mondays/Wednesdays/Thursdays/Saturdays/Sundays are good to go. I just don’t see Mindy returning unless it starts pulling 2s soon!

    I agree about Beauty ratings. If Secret Circle couldn’t get a renewal, Beauty won’t either. Beautys ratings are taking hard hits in the ratings since episode 2 getting 0.5-0.7s, with mostly 0.6s. Secret Circles real decline started in Spring so it isn’t looking good for BATB.

    Blue Bloods is likely renewal because of needing a 4th season to meet syndication episodes next year. If this show has these exact ratings next year it would be likely cancellation list w/CSI NY. Difference between CSI New York and BB is that CSI NY is a Veteran show in its 9th season which ratings have declined since moving to Fridays and BB is in a young season 3. I predict next year for bb to be canceled.

    I still think New York is a bubble show. If golden boy tanks than NY will maybe comeback for a 13 episode final season or maybe even full who knows? With Vegas bombing, Good Wife and Mentalist doing Friday Numbers on a stronger Sunday Nights, and Survivor and Amazing Race in a decline the past few weeks who knows what will happen.

    Body Of Proof should be certain cancellation but I know it has only been one episode so that is understandable.

    Smash should be Certain Cancellation hitting below 1.0 is not acceptable even if NBC lineup has a lot of low rated shows.

    Touch should be Certain Cancellation. As much as it saddens me that Cult bombed, (even though I haven’t watched it I was hoping CW could have atleast 2 out of 5 new shows be solid but one out of 5 is just plain pathetic!) it didn’t break 900k and 0.3 for the premiere. Certain Cancellation all the way.

  • v

    Well it’s a slum dunk, Vampire Diaries spinoff will air at 9pm next year.
    So its more about whether B&B can perform better on Mon/Tues.

    The CW basically has to rebuilt Mon/Tues.

  • Mark Wood

    The Snowleopard

    SPN was left on Thursday because it was thought to be the best possible fit with VD. Supernatural themed show and more female and younger skewing audience then Smallville.

    Its live only retention of VD was actually really strong in adults 18-49, but that isn’t the demo especially at the time that fueled the CW. Remember retention only applies to live viewing. Just as an example two different weeks the difference between the live adult 18-49 was .1.

    But what killed SPN on Thursday was that it barely showed any increase in Adults 18-34, roughly 5%. Considering its lead in dramatically improved the 18-34 demo of Smallville, they really expected far more out of SPN. Even with VD it was out of the scripted programming the 2nd lowest rated show in adults 18-34, out of any show renewed, only Smallville did worse.

    It might annoy you, but for the bulk of the history of the CW the primary revenew generator for ads was adults 18-34 and it’s female subset. And it’s only been the last two and a half years that have finally had the rest of the CW drop enough where SPN (or it dropped far less) past the bulk of the shows adults 18-34, and this year is besting the majority of shows w18-34.

  • Ultima

    @Dan S
    Kind of bitter irony that 2 NBC shows on the bubble Whitney & Go On with their low demos are being discussed as having a chance of coming back. Harry’s Law with a similar demo but much larger viewing audience was axed so why should these shows be renewed ?

    Because NBC’s scripted average is lower, Whitney and Go On have stronger relative ratings than Harry’s Law.

    Also, that much larger viewing audience for Harry’s Law is meaningless because the advertisers won’t pay for it. There’s no difference between an hour of Whitney with a 1.1 rating and 3 million viewers and Harry’s Law with a 1.1 rating at 8 million viewers.

  • jel

    Touch should be certain cancellation. On what planet is there any chance it will be renewed. I could quibble with some other choices . . . but what argument could anyone make for there being anything higher than a 0% chance of it coming back . . . unless they tried to salvage it with a timeslot change? Other than that, it’s been on 3 weeks, aired 4 hours and the ratings were bad week one and dropped and its pulling in lower demos than “Fringe.” It is dead, done, finished, and over . . . no question about that at all.

  • Ultima

    @del
    Of course Vegas will be renewed, not cancelled.

    Only in fantasy land.

    I still maintain the executives will see past the antiquated younger audience demographics criteria.

    Only if that all star cast and excellent writers want to work for free!

  • laura

    Finally, B & B will be deleted! honestly is a mediocre show. The CW Network is at sunset.

  • SJ

    @Nick

    You’re kidding, right? Whitney is consistently in the low 1s. Even if its ratings are close to NBC’s scripted average, they should cancel it. A new show could fail, sure, but it’s hard to imagine it rating lower than 1.1… Keeping low-rated shows on the air for much longer than they should have is what got NBC in this situation in the first place.

  • Lauren

    And here we go!!!!

    When will BATB fans understand it’s not about better or worst ratings? There is 300 000 viewers between HOD best ratings and HOD worst ratings in season 2 and 1,4 million between BATB pilot and its serie low. THAT is the reason why BATB is likely to be cancelled. And HOD has no lead-in, BATB has the best.

  • James

    @Joe “If NBC renews The New Normal then they need to renew every other comedy on the network. It’s currently their lowest rated comedy, which is an achievement considering the network…”

    TNN is not the lowest rated comedy on NBC, it’s actually the 3rd higher.

    NBC comedies averages:

    Go On: 2.26 in the demo with 6.14 million.
    The Office: 2.08 in the demo with 4.20 million.
    The New Normal: 1.75 in the demo with 4.61 million.
    Parks & Rec: 1.68 in the demo with 3.47 million.
    Betty: 1.64 in the demo with 5.67 million.
    Community: 1.55 in the demo with 3.32 million.
    1600 Penn: 1.40 in the demo with 3.67 million.
    Whitney: 1.34 in the demo with 3.97 million.
    Guys With Kids: 1.34 in the demo with 3.86 million.

    Now, if you meant that TNN latest episode was its lowest rated, then yes. But on the average, TNN is just fine. Anyway, what do you expect from a 1.0 lead-in (Go On) who also topped its bottom ratings? TNN can also not grow if when it starts every other network (CBS, ABC, CW) are running their shows from 8 or 9pm. In fact, for some unknown reason, even FOX starts Mindy at 9.30, and NBC puts TNN at 9:31. How can you build an audience from that? The time is a killer, and yet Murphy’s comedy retains almost all of Go On’s demos. Point being: if TNN was given a proper lead-in next season (The Voice, a new comedy, or even P&R), it would perform better for sure. After all, The Voice + Go On + TNN were #1 last fall.

  • Dinaminjo

    CBS has a bit of a problem. Next year they are going to loose HIMYM, 2.5 men will be even more expensive and M&M will reach syndication, akka will be ready to be let go.
    They need a new comedy hit asap. And they can’t put all of their eggs in one show next fall. That means either getting rid of 2.5M now or expanding the comedy hour.

    NY & Vegas are gone and TGW will probably be renewed for a mid-season shorter “get me syndication” season.

    I would say TM is gone as well, but it is getting the worst possible slots so if they axed it, they would have to put something else there or scrap the slot completely and they are “bleeding slots” as it is. It’s their fall guys show..

    @James

    And yet, when Voice-Go On- TNN was happening, TNN was worse than Go On.
    It has been worse than Go On for each and every episode no matter what schedule it was. It’s gone. Simple as that.

  • The End

    @Just Desserts
    @The retention doesn’t really matter in the bigger picture, the average ratings and the production cost is what matters in the long run

    Hahahaha. No, not always. Rarely.

  • juliedawn

    @RS

    It’s a pity that people like you can’t see beyond a superficial overview of what they think a show should be, instead of judging it on what it actually is.
    This BATB is NOT a remake of the versions that have come before it, the showrunners and cast have been clear about that. It’s a re-imagining, if you like, where in this story the ‘beast’ is not about frightening looks or being horribly disfigured. It’s about the beast WITHIN – how the character’s psyche and by extension, his relationships and overall life, have been affected by what happened to him. If anything, the fact that he is a ‘male model type’ is a direct contradiction with the beast inside and therefore also part of the story.

    No wonder the ratings are struggling. Perhaps if you and others liked you watched it before commenting, you might have understood. And if you have watched, then I’m sorry that you have such a shallow view of things.

  • jamandas

    CW needs to move the Cult to after TVD. Not sure why they did not try and tap into the popularity of Matthew Davis (Alaric). I watched the premier of the Cult because I happened to be watching Hart Of Dixie that night otherwise I would not even have known it was on.

  • J

    LOL at those who say this rendition doesn’t do justice to the Beauty and the Beast story. In the original, the Beast was a handsome prince who was cursed by “beast-like” deformity until he found true love, after which he reverted back to his old self.

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