Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Ben

    I think Community Should be cancelled. The ratings stink. Last week it was the fifth most watched program in it’s time slot after CBS, Fox, CW and ABC.
    Why should NBC keep it on the air? Syndication-who’s going to want to watch a show in repeats that didn’t get many viewers to look at original episodes. This program needs to be axed. Some people like it, and perhaps there are those who love it, but, it’s time to go.

  • JacobYates

    I disagree with CSI NY as being likely cancelled. It should be certain to be cancelled since it pulled a 1.2 for the finale. CBS won’t want a drama pulling these ratings when they can get a new drama to do better next year. Plus, since it hit the 1.2 mark the week before and didn’t rise at all for the finale, (unless it adjusts up) it proves people have lost interest in the show.

  • James

    @Dinaminjo “And yet, when Voice-Go On- TNN was happening, TNN was worse than Go On”

    Not that much. In the Fall, Go On averaged 2.56 and TNN 1.94. That’s not bad to me. Not even close to bad. In fact, it allowed NBC to win Tuesdays nights for the first time since years ago. While it is true that without The Voice both comedies have declined its audience, it must be said, in their favor, that ten episodes are not enough to get attached to a freshman series. With NCIS on NBC, and FOX and ABC running comedies as well, Tuesdays happened to be a very harsh day. It was kinda obvious that these comedies would sink without The Voice, but as long as it concerns to NBC, all they have to do is bring back The Voice and lead Tuesdays again…

  • Thoma

    Renew Beauty and The Underwear Model.Greetings from Greece xx

  • Holly

    @JacobYates,

    I disagree with CSI NY as being likely cancelled. It should be certain to be cancelled since it pulled a 1.2 for the finale. CBS won’t want a drama pulling these ratings when they can get a new drama to do better next year.

    Does that make The Good Wife and its 1.3 last Sunday a certain cancellation in your book as well?

  • Brian

    BATB just needs a day and time change, it is still doing better than at least 4 other CW sows..cancel them first! especially Heart Of Dixie! yuk!

  • yop

    I hope batb it´s renewed

  • JacobYates

    @holly
    What exactly does TGW have going for it at CBS besides low ratings and irrelevant critical acclaim. Point something out, and if you make a logical point, I will listen to you.

  • BatbFan

    Well, apparently I’m part of the “small” group of crazy fans BATB
    I really like the show, I’m not blind I recognize that is flawed, but entertainment does not?
    I do not understand many things here, but after reading all the post I have many questions
    Because they say that the renewal of batb serious slap for TSC fans are different shows, different times, different costs maybe, I do not know, certainly not understand the rivalry of TSC and BATB, the premiere of one was not linked to the cancellation of the other, if you cancel BATB could never blame a new show about it … and of course (at least I speak for me and I hope that all besties to do the same) will not go into each post to throw hate on this new show
    Sometimes you do not agree to the terms of my classmates besties to defend our show, but I understand, so harshly attacking everything related to it, that’s why I feel the need to defend so hotly
    I see no need to attack each other, or the shows that we do not like, but rather work for what we like, highlight the good in them and if we get a positive good, but it was a shame but fought, all the end of the day the final decision of the directors of each chain.

  • JacobYates

    @holly
    Plus, TGW has not reached it’s season finale yet. Therefore, it has room to rise (or fall).

  • Holly

    @JacobYates,

    Oh, I’m not making an argument for TGW, I was just curious if you were one to apply that criteria consistently.

  • Wasabi Steak

    Well, damn BATB slump was quick. Just 2 weeks ago we had a certain renwerl because of consistent 0.7
    A couple of bad weeks and that’s it? Now one thing you have to consider about last week’s performance. It got adjusted to a 0.5 which is a season low but it went up in viewers from the previous week. Surely that’s cause an improvment. How weird that the twitter handle was celebrating an improvment in viewers for only this to happen.

    A lot depends on its March performance with the storyline shifting back to the action and the task of hunting the Beast. Adding Mohinder from Heroes may bring in some fans (Though that didnt work when Bridget Regan).

    I think as others have said retention is a tough one in that slot, for the past 3 years now TVD as a lead in has not helped other shows and only the Originals would suit, but BATB still seems to get viewers ahead of other CW sure(Barely) on a tough night.

    I think the CW should give it one more chance on a new night and time. I would even argue they should give it a Monday or Tuesday and pair with Nikita on those days.

    TSC numbers form last year are tough compare because everything is down from last year. Smallville on a Friday Graveyard shift 2 years ago was putting numbers on par with SPN and TVD now so I dont know if you should compare any of the current shows numbers to previous seasons. The CW has a bigger problem as a network and I dont think its just quality of shows, I have read people complain about not even getting access to the channel on some affilates and even having blackout problems on Direct TV, does that play a part in the network’s overall reduction in viewership?

  • danielcw

    I ask again: this time, with the right facts:
    Can ABC-studios give away Body Of Prove to ABC for free, or is that against laws of fair competition?

    @shepherd (on page 3): thanks, my bad, it got it mixed up in my head.

  • Alexandra Gibson

    Beauty and the beast is the best show don’t cancel

  • Esha

    I don’t watch cw the only time I do is when beauty and the beast is on it won’t be canceled it has more rating then Carrie diaries so how the heck? Whoever wrote this is a prick .. Just cause u don’t like it .. Don’t try to make everyone else not like it.

  • C

    You’d better NOT cancel Beauty and the Beast! Change the night if need be (it’s in a tough time slot as it is).. It’s a really good show that’s gotten better and better every week. It’s really clicking now!

    And seriously- The Carrie Diaries has a better chance at renewal? Are your kidding? What a joke the CW is if this actually happens.. Use a brain cell CW and keep shows that are good and not crap.

  • Tangela Johnson

    BATB a great show we need a second season ASAP

  • Ellen

    Aw….sad to see BATB on the likely cancelled list. But, there is still a chance because a decision won’t be made until May 2013. I hope it gets renewed. I love TVD, but recently, I haven’t been watching it because the storyline isn’t really that interesting to me, so I switched and watched BATB and I love it. I’ll watch TVD again when it gets better. I really don’t know why a series’ renewal/cancellation is based on retention from the series before or something. I watch Supernatural, but I don’t watch Arrow, so I’m not sure how Arrow can retain anything for Supernatural. Same with BATB, I don’t watch TVD, but I watch BATB, so retention for me means nothing. I think every series should be analyzed on it’s own. It’s quite unfair to a series because they can’t retain most of the viewers from the previous series that it should be cancelled. Not everyone is obligated to watch the series after. I think when the CW initially put it there was to hope that BATB would get some TVD viewers, and along some new ones who just watched the trailer and want to watch it. But, after the first episode, I think it’s totally up to the series itself to retain it’s own following. I personally love BATB and would follow the series were it goes. But, if it has to be cancelled, then I hope the writers would give it a satisfying ending to cure my sadness over the show being gone.

  • Kitsune

    Last year, ABC renewed seven dramas:

    Castle, Private Practice, Body of Proof, Revenge, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, Once Upon a Time

    Assuming seven are renewed again this year, that locks Castle, Revenge, Grey’s, Scandal, Once, and Nashville for renewal. Red Widow will have an uphill battle but it could slip in as a seventh renewal.

    With that in mind, I think it’d be reasonable to be 95% certain that ABC renews all six of these dramas.

  • Imacu

    “@Red Jane: Beauty & Beast have been wasting the golden slot after TVD – CW should move them wherever and give a chance to Cult. True that slot did not save The Secret Circle last year but why wouldn’t you try if B&B are clearly a wast of space…”

    I totally agree with you, Beauty & the Beast is a great serie. I liked The Secret Circle, but I recognize that Beauty and the Beast surpasses to The Secret Circle, the problem is the slot. And don’t forget that Beauty and the Beast won the PCA to Favorite New TV Drama and competed with Arrow, Elementary, Nashville and Revolution.

    So, I think that should give to Beauty and the Beast a Second Season and change the slot.

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