Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • JacobYates

    @holly
    I do. If a show like Vegas or the Mentalist fell to 1.2 then it should be certain to be cancelled.

  • Imacu

    “@Elen: Aw….sad to see BATB on the likely cancelled list. But, there is still a chance because a decision won’t be made until May 2013. I hope it gets renewed. I love TVD, but recently, I haven’t been watching it because the storyline isn’t really that interesting to me, so I switched and watched BATB and I love it. I’ll watch TVD again when it gets better. I really don’t know why a series’ renewal/cancellation is based on retention from the series before or something. I watch Supernatural, but I don’t watch Arrow, so I’m not sure how Arrow can retain anything for Supernatural. Same with BATB, I don’t watch TVD, but I watch BATB, so retention for me means nothing. I think every series should be analyzed on it’s own. It’s quite unfair to a series because they can’t retain most of the viewers from the previous series that it should be cancelled. Not everyone is obligated to watch the series after. I think when the CW initially put it there was to hope that BATB would get some TVD viewers, and along some new ones who just watched the trailer and want to watch it. But, after the first episode, I think it’s totally up to the series itself to retain it’s own following. I personally love BATB and would follow the series were it goes. But, if it has to be cancelled, then I hope the writers would give it a satisfying ending to cure my sadness over the show being gone.”

    That, also I happen to me, I tired a little TVD, all around Elena, change the subject and that Elena has a little fun, is a vampire and remains a crybaby.

    In contrast with BATB, I’m completely hooked, I can’t stop watching the episodes over and over again, and never happened. And I’m not a teenager.

  • Lauren

    LOL at BATB fans asking for another hour. You have the best lead-in!

  • AT

    Beauty and the Beast has suffered for a couple weeks, but with the new cast additions the ratings may go back up. To be frank, it seems stupid to me to cancel the show based on comparing it with the Secret Circle. That show was just so much more expensive. And that said, what’s against it? 90210 that received a .2, The Carrie Diaries which is starting to look more like Emily Owens and Cult that premiered to a .3 and less than a million viewers? I personally think people are over teen fashion shows. My personal opinion is that they will renew Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast. Creatively BATB has the most potential. If it continues with constant .5s it might get canceled. But let’s wait and see how the new cast additions effect the ratings first. Likely cancellation seems harsh at this point, when really all of the shows that haven’t been renewed already are struggling. Basically most of them really could go either way.

  • Jared

    I LOVE BATB but unfortunately the ratings aren’t doing much to warrant a second season. Unless the CW really wants to commit to this show and let it finds its audience or has another new series to pair with it next season(Tomorrow People/Oxygen) like the combo of Arrow and Supernatural on Wednesdays, I guess ill just enjoy the show while it lasts.

  • SPM

    Why do people keep saying The Secret Circle was too expensive? how do you know how much it cost to produce? I know it had a big cast but I doubt they all got paid massively, Britti Robertson probaly got waaaay more than the rest. As for the special effects they didn’t look that expensive at all.

    Its obvious that Mark Pedowitz wanted rid of the show as he didn’t like it at all and he thought B&TB would be a bigger hit, as we now know he was wrong it has done worse than TSC did in the same time slot.

    & before anyone comes at me with “TSC is over move on” I have moved on.

  • Mae

    @ Dan

    Why do you think shipping SPN off to Friday again is a good idea? It baffles me. You said move it to Fridays because it is a veteran show? What sense does that make? So what. If a veteran show can pull better ratings during the week than new shows, then it deserves to be on during the week. Not on a Friday. SPN earned its way off of Fridays.

    SPN is one of 3 shows on the CW right now that is able to pull a 1.0 & the CW needs that. It is a well performing show (for the CW) in its current time slot. If SPN goes to Fridays, it will go back to pulling around a 0.7.

    Why take a well-performing show and move to Fridays to become a mediocre-performing show on the off-chance that a new CW show will come in and pull comparable ratings.

    Why would CW fool around with something that is actually working for them?

  • Carl

    I think those who talk about TVD’s flaws as a lead-in have some good points. I know the talk has centered on its fans going online instead of watching the next show. The Originals might curtail some of that. I never understood why NCIS had a spinoff as it’s lead-out, but TVD, I understand more.

    Does anyone else wonder if they should have taken a little more time preparing BATB and started it as a 13-episode season?

    Unless the numbers change over the rest of the season (and depending on episode quality it might – I know people here seemed to prefer Arrow’s last episode to SPN’s), I think CW would be better off leaving Arrow and SPN together. I’m not sure Arrow would necessarily be able to support a new show. Arrow and SPN have been very tight the last month or so.

  • Carl

    @SPM, weren’t some of the actors on there film actors, or known for big roles on other TV shows?

  • herpderp

    @SPM

    You clearly haven’t moved on if you keep bringing it up and attacking BATB. TSC sucked, and the ratings sucked. The cancellation was justified. Move on and get a life.

  • BatbFan

    Lauren
    Posted February 25, 2013 at 11:01 a.m.
    LOL at BATB fans asking for another hour. You have the best lead-in!

    If you do not like the show, do not see and do not criticize, I have so tired all, everyone has a say or express a desire not to attack each post in favor of batb

    say they are tired of reading the PCA, if I read again Lead_in! I’ll have nausea

  • Melanie

    @Carl I agree with you. I don’t think the CW will separate Arrow & SPN.

    I really don’t know what they are going to do with Mondays next season. I seriously doubt that the CW will pick up 5 new shows, but I bet they wish they could . . . .

    Mon
    8 – Carrie Diaries (or New Show -Selection)
    9 – Hart of Dixie (or New Show -Oxygen)

    Tue
    8 – New Show (Tomorow People)
    9 – New Show (The Hundred)

    Wed
    8 – Arrow
    9 – Supernatural

    Thu
    8 – Vampire Diaries
    9 – New Show (The Originals)

    Fri
    8 – Nikita
    9 – repeats or HOD

  • BatbFan

    Ellen
    I agree with you, but I’d much rather a second season :-) dream costs nothing, wait until May

  • Wright

    Cancel 90210 and TCD.

  • Lauren

    @BatbFan

    You realize I don’t care about your opinion, right?

  • halloween

    @SPM
    agreed budgets could have been cut, Nikita probably gets one every season. the showrunner/producer probably had a terrible pitch for season 2

  • Nick

    @SJ

    Whitney is consistently in the low 1s.

    It’s in the 1.3/1.4 range, which is better than every single other comedy on the network except Parks & Rec. That’s a reason for renewal right there. I’m not saying it should be renewed, but it will be, because I can’t see NBC keeping only 2 comedies (Goon and P&R), and I definitely can’t see them keeping Community. They’ll renew 3 comedies, and they’ll be Parks & Rec, Go On, & Whitney.

    A new show could fail, sure, but it’s hard to imagine it rating lower than 1.1…

    As far as I know, Whitney only hit 1.1 once, on Thanksgiving Eve.

  • halloween

    now tvline has updated 90210 “a long shot”

  • Janet Snakehole 3

    I love Beauty and the Beast but if Happy Endings gets cancelled…I WILL RIOT.

  • John A

    If CW were stronger id agree that Spn should be on friday. But its doing very well so thats a stupid suggestion.

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