Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • JacobYates

    @Kitsune
    “Assuming seven are renewed again this year, that locks Castle, Revenge, Grey’s, Scandal, Once, and Nashville for renewal. Red Widow will have an uphill battle but it could slip in as a seventh renewal.”

    Red Widow will actually have a downhill battle. With the six dramas that you mentioned being renewed, Red Widow will only have to do better than Body of Proof to get a renewal. I’m not saying that it’s already a lock, but with the only other 2 dramas competing for renewal being Zero Hour and Body of Proof, Red Widow will have to flop HARD to get cancelled.

  • Ted Craig

    @JacobYates

    There’s no rule that says ABC has to renew seven shows.

  • Bizarro

    @BatbFan and @Ellen
    I agree completely with both of you guys and I would be sad to see the series go. I feel like I’m in the same place as last year with Ringer. Just like Ringer this show gets better and better each episode and fans seeming to notice. There is still a chance the show could get renewed but I already can tell, that whichever new show the CW had this year will be moving to friday with Nikita.

  • Felipe Nikita

    NIKITAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

  • herpderp

    ^^^^^
    Ladies and gentlemen, a typical Nikitard.

  • Kitsune

    @Jacob:

    Last year ABC had a really good year with its freshmen and only ordered like five drama pilots. 3 out of 4 of those have fizzled and the fourth is struggling. Sure Red Widow’s threshold is a lot lower, but ABC might order six or more drama pilots this year.

    @Whoever’s insisting Whitney is doing good on last page:

    Whitney has tied Go On and Community every week for the past three weeks. It hasn’t done better or worse than either, but Go On’s got higher Fall ratings going for it and Community’s still officially 4 episodes short of the magic 88 and might get a short last season anyway.

    Everything else is dunzo though for sure. Bye GWK, TNN, 1600, UAN.

  • Nick

    @Kitsune

    Whoever’s insisting Whitney is doing good on last page

    hello.

    Whitney has tied Go On and Community every week for the past three weeks. It hasn’t done better or worse than either, but Go On’s got higher Fall ratings going for it and Community’s still officially 4 episodes short of the magic 88 and might get a short last season anyway.

    Yes, but both are in severe downward trends, which Whitney has not experienced. Also, Goon is lead-in dependent, something Whitney is not. I expect all three to be renewed anyway, for schedule spackle (and Community for syndication padding). There’s no real competition between the three. As long as Whitney stays above UAN/GWK levels, it’s safe.

  • NANA

    I WATCH TWO SHOWS A WEEK, BOTH ON THE CW, IF BEAUTY AND THE BEAST IS CANCELLED, I WILL JUST GIVE UP ALTOGHTER AND GO BACK TO THE MOVIE CHANNELS..

  • Kay

    I don’t understand why people must knock Beauty and the Beast in these comments. It’s far better than the Vampire Diaries and honestly is the best show on the CW. There are literally SO many crappy shows on the CW right now and the BATB is the only show I watch on their network! It’s a guilty pleasure of mine and I was hooked from the pilot episode. It’s really emotionally charged and all the characters have excellent chemistry! The story has really progressed as well and continues to get better and better. This show NEEDS and DESERVES a second season. No more garbage shows, leave on something with quality for once!

  • Lizzard

    I think the crazy thing is that the producers wasted such potential and creative capacity with BatB.
    It had a horrible pilot, horrible 3-4 subsequent episodes and they’re paying a dear price for it. And it’s CRAZIER still because their later episodes have been superbly competent and the core love story is strong.
    Creatively, its plot gets very interesting and is building up convincingly, but I guess the show is still hurting from its lacklustre beginning.

  • Ultima

    @Wasabi Steak
    but it went up in viewers from the previous week

    Total viewership is irrelevant.

  • Ultima

    @Nick
    As far as I know, Whitney only hit 1.1 once, on Thanksgiving Eve.

    The latest episode had a 1.1 rating.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/02/21/wednesday-final-ratings-the-middle-survivor-guys-with-kids-criminal-minds-law-order-svu-adjusted-down/170285/

  • Beauty and the flop

    Lmao at dumbies thinking batb is the best thing on tv. And the Fan Excuse Bingo excuses are laughable. Poor dumbtards in denial, but the show is still getting canned.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Robert: WHERE IS MY POLL? You need to put up a simple poll. All those who like BATB specify whether they are male or female.

    Just look at the posts. Ninety percent of the people who like BATB are female. It’s a farce. :-)

    The reality is the show has MASSIVE problems in acting, directing, premise, focus, pace, you name it. Last week’s episode was almost physically painful for me, especially due to Nicole Gale Anderson’s STAGGERINGLY bad acting and one of the most annoying characters on television right now. Kill that beyatch off NOW! Even Nina is more fun than her! :-)

  • EVESIX

    This is bull, TCD & HOD should be on the likely for cancellation too as well as Nikita. This rank is bullsht.

  • J

    “The reality is…”

    No one cares what a damn Hack thinks.

  • Nick

    @Ultima

    The latest episode had a 1.1 rating.

    Yeah, I don’t really pay attention to Whitney ratings that much. It should still be safe if it hasn’t gotten under 1.1 before. Has it?

  • J

    @Rae

    Your ingenuousness is rather repulsive. How can we be sure that it is not people like you who are simply pretending to be BatB fans spewing your vulgarity on this site trying to give your concocted so-called five BatB fans commenting with different names a bad name? Fan is short for “fanatic” and it would be expected that BatB fans are here to support the show because they enjoy it and want to see it continue. Why are people like you here? What does it matter to you that a show you don’t like is on the air? Change the channel. No one is forcing you to watch. If you watch to mock, then you’re a spiteful person, i.e. simply a hater, and what goes around eventually comes around.

  • J

    That should be *disingenuousness.

  • Ultima

    @Nick
    It should still be safe if it hasn’t gotten under 1.1 before. Has it?

    No, but ask again Thursday! ;)

    Also, 1.1 is still low even for NBC. It’s below their scripted average, if Whitney stays at that level, it will be canceled.

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