Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Win

    *stands up and starts a slow clap fr TOM*
    You beasties give everyone so much crap, but seem to dodge your away around any type of real logic.

    You can LOVE your show. LOVE it to death. Literally. I understand you’re passionate. wooooo. Stop attacking people who don’t like your show or who are looking at the numbers and commenting what they think. Because then you turn around and cry foul, or say we are haters and all this other shipper nonsense when we attack you for being childish in nature on the boards. This is not a fan site, where we sit and discuss PCA wins. We discuss numbers and analyze what that means for the shows prospects.

    More and more it has become digs about how other people hate your show and yadda yadda. We don’t hate your show. We hate it’s insane fanbase for stinking up the place with your hypocrisies and excuses.

  • Mary Ann

    Why are Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie doing better than Beauty and the Beast on your chart? That makes no sense at all.

  • Tom

    Geez, Mary Ann, that’s a tough question to answer. Let’s see if we can figure it out. Oh, yes, try this:

    1- scroll to the top of Robert’s article;

    2- look under the header entitled “Beauty and the Beast Downgraded’;

    3- Read this:

    “I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!”

    4- Consider carefully whether this means that it still “makes no sense” that HOD and TCD (i.e. “the other shows on the bubble”) are still Bubble Shows whereas B&B has been downgraded to a Likely Cancellation;

    5- Being a Beastlie, you still may not be able to figure out what I’ve said. If that’s the case, march down to your guidance counselor and sign up for remedial English; and, finally,

    6- Stick to the Beastlie fangirl blogs. You’re out of your depth here.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Win: “Seems to me the CW got it wrong. They thought Cult would spawn a cult following, but it actually was BatB….”

    LOL. You win the thread!

    I have to say, BATB fans have now gone totally over the edge. I can’t remember when a show here – especially a CW SHOW! – has garnered this much ratings denial. Maybe Chuck – but that was on Fox and actually managed to limp through five seasons.

    Joss’ Biggest Fan wasn’t this crazy.

    And it is ALL women! ALL! Which would be fine if the show was doing WELL. No one cares if more women than men like a show as long as it translates into BETTER RATINGS! In this case, it’s NOT!

    The fans don’t realize that their support does NOT translate into Nielsen ratings. So then they blame the system.

    Folks, “fans” of ANY show are probably less in number than the rest of the general audience that watches a show. Especially “hardcore fans”. Just because I watch the show does not make me a “fan.” If I were a Nielsen family member (disclosure: I’m not!) I would be counted, “fan” or not. All the “hardcore fans” are BY DEFINITION statistically insignificant in influencing a show UNLESS their “buzz” can entice Nielsen families to watch.

    And even then, some unknown percentage – probably large – of the Nielsen families are watching just because of some show that aired earlier or because they just happened to land on it while changing channels and said, “Oh, well, I’ll watch this tonight.”

    Which is what I call the “general audience”. I don’t know if there are any published statistics on that, but my guess is the general audience FAR – or at least significantly – outweighs fans on ANY show.

    And they are NOT watching.

    So get a clue. Being a hardcore fan is not going to save your show if the ratings suck.

    Quality doesn’t matter either. And for BATB, the quality is mediocre at best and hideous at worst.

    Of course, this whole post is a waste of time. Because hardcore fans aren’t rational.

    Which is why I never call myself a “fan” of anything. I don’t want to be misidentified as a nutcase. That’s already too easy in my case! :-)

  • Shirley

    Beauty and the bEast is a great show, there is an amazing fan following. Everyone should give it a chance before judging. Give BATB a second season ! There is something for everyone, it’s got drama and romance and the cast is phenomenal !

  • Immaculate

    @Tom

    Don’t be an idiot and group me with some imaginary group that you would like to label “Beasties” so you can collectively castigate the entire fan-base with your baseless aspersions as if we’re a homogeneous group.

    “So, you also don’t like the Nielsens. The Beastlies can rig the PCA’s but, if the Nielsens don’t go their way, it’s supposedly because the polling methods are defective. Great logic.”

    I was quite clear on why I didn’t like the Nielsens and it has nothing to do with the PCAs. It has to do with their low sample size which is then extrapolated to be statistically accurate. This was already explained. I also like how you simply ignored what I said about the Spoiler TV awards because it was antithetical to what you like to keep reiterating about the PCAs in every contentious post you make with your “Beasties” group.

    “Your reasoning about the B&B premiere is bizarre. What you’re apparently saying is that the premiere drew an artificially high audience because it was the only refuge for people who didn’t want to watch the VP debate. That assumption is completely absurd.”

    It’s actually quite logical except to people who can’t follow logic like you.

    “And, of course, you’re not a retentionist. Why would you be? B&B is getting killed in the ( PM Thursday time slot. I guarantee you’d be saying the opposite if B&B ratings were similar to those of TVD.”

    I’m not a retentionist because the argument is completely flawed you ignoramus. There is absolutely nothing causative that will make me stay to watch another TV show that follows the one I just watched because it is popular. The reasons given were already stated. You have got to be the dumbest person I have ever argued with.

    “It’s clear from your total inability to grasp logic that you’re exactly the type of adolescent homeroom princess who should be back on Spoiler.com wasting someone else’s bandwith. Now finish your homework and leave the adults to finish their Nielsen diaries.”

    Piss off misogynist loser. It’s clear you’re just a spiteful idiot whose show got cancelled or who thinks he has something to gain from BatB’s failure.

  • halloween

    new edition delayed?

  • Mari

    No bubble watch this week?

  • Will

    Guys With Kids I hope wont get cancelled I love that show its so good

  • EVESIX

    Most likely renewal are just bullsht shows which all deserve to die. I mean, Revenge and Nikita?! WTF is wrong with you people?

  • EVESIX

    What about this embarassing series The Lying Game? Is it canned yet?

  • madeleine Boleslawski

    Beauty and the Beast ratings have been higher than Carrie Diaries. Yes BATB follows The Vampire Diaries but they are up against White Collar, Grey
    s Anatomy, and Person of Interest! They are three tuff shows to be up against. There is so much more to BATB then the shows you are putting in the “Bubble.” It also won the “People’s Choice” awards. I wish you would change your opinion. It is a great show with great potential.

  • Iglooman

    I’m pretty confident that Vegas and The Mentalist will be renewed. Touch and CSI:NY may be renewed. Deception has a great cast and I would like to see it renewed, but it will probably be cancelled. I’m not sure about Cult. I like the premise of it and I also like Robert Knepper, and the show definitely has potential, but the episodes I’ve seen so far border on campy & cheesy. Then again, there’s only been 3 episodes so far so it could get better. As for Body of Proof, I just started watching it and I’m on season 2. I did have my doubts about it, but it has now become my 2nd favorite medical drama behind House. Sure, one cast member was killed off and two cast members left, but I don’t see that hurting the show. So there’s probably a good chance it could be renewed. Finally, Last Resort was a good show. It shouldn’t have been cancelled.

  • J

    TO me Beauty and the beast is the best show I have ever seen. The actors bring a lot to the show and I DO NOT want it to be canceled … I read a post about how people who think this show is the best are dumb; maybe we can just relate to the plot and the characters better than you (I am truly not trying to be rude, but some people connect to a show while others do not, and some people connect better to one show than someone else might) but mostly I like this show because it seems new and refreshing and the actors really take on the role of the person they are playing, something new is always happening. Every Thursday at 8:55 pm I sit waiting for BATB to start so that I can watch either the next new episode or a repeat so I re-enjoy the show I have loves since the promo announcing the show :) I can’t even begin to explain how much I love this show and how sad, angry, and disappointed I would be if it ended up getting canceled.

    This is just my opinion, thank you for reading it :)
    ~J

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