When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!
Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.
Beauty And The Beast Downgraded
I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!
NBC
Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”
I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash. Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.
It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
| Show | Network | Status |
| 666 Park Avenue | ABC | Canceled |
| Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 | ABC | Canceled |
| Last Resort | ABC | Canceled |
| Made In Jersey | CBS | Canceled |
| Partners | CBS | Canceled |
| Emily Owens, M.D. | CW | Canceled |
| Ben And Kate | Fox | Canceled |
| The Mob Doctor | Fox | Canceled |
| Animal Practice | NBC | Canceled |
| Do No Harm | NBC | Canceled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Zero Hour | ABC | Certain Cancellation |
| 1600 Penn | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Guys With Kids | NBC | Certain Cancellation |
| Up All Night | NBC | Perhaps already cancelled |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Happy Endings | ABC | Likely Cancellation |
| CSI: NY | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| Vegas | CBS | Likely Cancellation |
| 90210 | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Beauty And The Beast | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Cult | CW | Likely Cancellation |
| Cleveland Show, The | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Touch | Fox | Likely Cancellation |
| Deception | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| The New Normal | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| Smash | NBC | Likely Cancellation |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Body Of Proof | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Last Man Standing | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Malibu Country | ABC | On The Bubble |
| Good Wife, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Mentalist, The | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | On The Bubble |
| Carrie Diaries, The | CW | On The Bubble |
| Hart Of Dixie | CW | On The Bubble |
| Community | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Go On | NBC | On The Bubble |
| Whitney | NBC | On The Bubble |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Castle | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Neighbors, The | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Revenge | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Suburgatory | ABC | Likely Renewal |
| Elementary | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Hawaii Five-0 | CBS | Likely Renewal |
| Nikita | CW | Likely Renewal |
| Following, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Mindy Project, The | Fox | Likely Renewal |
| Law & Order: SVU | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| Parks & Recreation | NBC | Likely Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Grey's Anatomy | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Middle, The | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Modern Family | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Nashville | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Once Upon A Time | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| Scandal | ABC | Certain Renewal |
| 2 Broke Girls | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Blue Bloods | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| CSI | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Mike & Molly | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| NCIS: Los Angeles | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Person Of Interest | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | Certain Renewal |
| Glee | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| New Girl | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Raising Hope | Fox | Certain Renewal |
| Chicago Fire | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Grimm | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Parenthood | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| Revolution | NBC | Certain Renewal |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Big Bang Theory, The | CBS | Renewed |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | Renewed |
| NCIS | CBS | Renewed |
| Arrow | CW | Renewed |
| Supernatural | CW | Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries, The | CW | Renewed |
| American Dad | Fox | Renewed |
| Bob's Burgers | Fox | Renewed |
| Bones | Fox | Renewed |
| Family Guy | Fox | Renewed |
| The Simpsons | Fox | Renewed |
| tvbythenumbers.com | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | Final SeasonFinished |
| Gossip Girl | CW | Final SeasonFinished |
| Fringe | Fox | Final SeasonFinished |
| 30 Rock | NBC | Final Season Finished |
| The Office | NBC | Final Season |
--
Looooooooool bye bye Floppity & the Beast what are turd you are.
How powerful are the syndication gods? People act like only a show gets past its second season, it’s guaranteed a fourth. Is that really true? Or are people just making to big of assumptions
I still dont get why Nashville is Certain renewal. I feel like other ABC shows like Castle and Revenge are in a better position for certain cancellation than Nashville. But all 3 will end up being renewed in May.
* i meant certain renewal! Sorry for the typo
@ rock starz i completely agree. TSC did better then Beauty has.. and it was cancelled. If the CW keeps this god awful show it will certainly cause an up rising from Secret Circle fans. Beauty was dead when it premiered.. does anyone remember how awful the pilot episode did. At least Secret Circle pulled viewers.. Beauty has ratings like Nikita. In my opinion CW should cancel Beauty, Nikita, Heart of Dixie, TCD, and from the looks of it Cult will be cancelled and 90210 will end. This network is dying slowing.
Supernatural – moved to Friday
Nikita – moved to Friday
Secret Circle – cancelled
Beauty and Beast – cancelled
I’d hardly call that a “golden spot”.
Good Wife, Carrie Diarais, NBC’s sitoms – Likely renewals.
Hart of Dixie: Certain renewal.
@Nikki SC got a 1.2-1.3 for its premiere same as Ringer and BatB
@Nikki
Check your records before you type nonsense. Beauty basically matched Circles premiere with 3 million viewers and a 1.2
But if it makes you sleep at night since The CW seems to be making you go mental, BOTH shows are/were underperforming in that slot. But Circle was just more embarrassing since it was meant to be TVDs sister show
Body Of Proof – Cancelled
Last Man Standing – Renewed
Malibu Country - Cancelled
The Mentalist – Renewed moves to Friday at 9, if Golden Boy fails
Good Wife – Cancelled, 1.3 on CBS really?
Rules of Engagement – Cancelled..The move on Saturday last year wasn’t enought?
Community – syndication
Go On – The Voice can resurect it
Whitney - Cancelled
don’t care about WC
I was able to watch only four episodes of BatB andd I could take no more. Writting and acting is horrendous, there is no chemistry between the leads. I encourage everyone to see older show with Linda Hamilton.
If The Following is renewed then it will make me so happy. It will be the first new show that I watched that gets renewed since Person of Interest. Everything else I watch gets cancelled. :/
I don’t split hairs usually, but Nashville is more certain than Revenge and, especially, Castle?
I don’t think so.
A more appropriate designation would be:
Castle: certain renewal, being a veteran and all.
Nashville: likely renewal. It’s in the same boat as The Neighbors: a freshman with acceptable ratings that might just slip into cancellation territory, which both are within a tenth of (1.7 vs. 1.6).
Revenge: as of now is a likely, but not certain, renewal.
i still think your a little too optimistic about Nashville and RH. more so on RH. they are more likely than certain. i feel that RH is gone. fox is no sony or cbs when it comes to syndication.
Patrick Ausgewahlt
Syndication is more about the number of episodes – 88. So if one season has 22-24 episodes, then yes it is almost a rule. If the show has been renewed for third season then it will most likely get fourth, despite lower ratings.
I’ve never ever understood this retention thing. I’ve never watched Beauty & the Beast, but I’m not going to just because it’s on after the Vampire Diaries. If I know when I series I like is on (or something new that sounds good) I’ll switch it on, and don’t care what’s on before or after it.
The whole lead-in thing hasn’t really made sense since the remote control was invented, it’s as antiquated as the Nielsen system. But yeah I know it’s all there is, same for everyone blah blah.
And in the case of BATB or any show in that time slot, lead in is worth even less, due to TVD fans famous for not watching anything afterwards.
Not to mention all the other shows BATB is up against at that time.
Ringer should be brought back.
All the futile attempts to replace it with floppily owens and cult have proven disastrous to cw.
ringer was a decent show.we never got to watch the hot battle between bridget and siobhan.
And we still have to tolerate the embarrassingly underperforming 90210 get its zillionth pity renewal.
Ringer come back!!!
@Funeral Dinner
Exactly!
If they want to downgrade BATB or any other show, fine, but pulling out the tired old retention argument as only reason based on the other CW bubble shows isn’t a good enough reason in this day and age.
You’re probably right about Beauty & the Beast, but I sincerely hope you’re wrong. This is my guilty pleasure of the year and the only show I watch live.
Okay so it premiered the same but did way worse the entire season then SC did. Plus the show was way better, the writing the acting. Beauty is horrible in all catagories.