Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Brandy

    I think Cult,CD,BataB are gone.CD got a 0.4 and the only show to be renewed with those numbers is Nikita in its second seaso for syndication supposedly ..Dealine has CD,Nikita as toss ups and Beauty as “hopeful” which made me laugh cause its ratings/retention are bad even though I like it.With three 0.5s I doubt Beauty is doing well enough to be renewed for Fri.

  • zerg

    Many shows live or lived thx to their lead in, just look at Go on and TNN they bombed or HE,Touch,Smash ecc.

  • Dave

    @Nikki

    Okay we get it. You’re a bitter Circle fan who wants to see Beauty in a pitchfork, I get it. Patience is a virtue and I’m pretty sure you’ll get what you desire.

    Sheesh maybe then you’ll tone down a bit.

  • ronnie

    the new normal will make society view gay people in a positive sense.it is a show that can change the world for gay people.it is the only good gay show after queer as folk.it is unfortunate that the new normal is getting low ratings.

  • Claudia

    So basically you are saying the bubble race is between HOD and TCD? WOW

    Oh well is not the end of the season, all I can say is the BATB is having a lot of new fans and its growing, many CW low ratings show stay on air not only because of the ratings there are other factors involved, ala Nikita, and please stop comparing to TSC that was another story!!!

    We beasties are not only hoping for this show to get renewed, we are working hard even against all the people that dont even watch the show and for some reason hate on it. Its BEYOND ridiculous! Lets wait until it comes back from the hiatus, one thing tho if they renew wherever schedule they put this show on, most of the beasties will follow, since most of us are not even TVD or CW viewers, we are only there for that show.

  • ronnie

    if the carrie diaries gets renewed for second season it is possible that they might bring samantha,miranda and charlotte (in the lines of ‘summer in the city novel by candace bushnell’.that will be so much better!!!!…

  • edziak

    Beaty and the Beast really? it has better ratings then Carrie Diaries and Hart Of Dixie so why ?

  • Dave

    @Bill/Robert

    Out of curiosity, do you guys watch any broadcast shows? Particularly, do you watch any CW show?

  • Angela

    Beauty And The Beast is the best show of all time, has to be renewed. A series full of adventure, romance and action that deserves another season!

  • lalinge

    TCD had last week 0.4, previous week 0.5, how can it be on the bubble, and Beauty and the Beast that gain last week 0.6 can be likely to be cancel????

  • Bizarro

    I love the show but they should of just moved Beauty to fridays to give it a test run. It kind of fits better with Nikita and then we could finally see if the show will hold up to a .5 or go under. I’m not shocked about Cult doing bad but to be honest, this week was terrible for the CW except for TVD and Supernatural. So if Beauty keeps getting .5′s or goes lower which is a possibility since its about to go on a two week hiatus or it may go up again like last time, then I think the show will get cancelled but their is still hope for all of the CW shows since they probably won’t announce the last bit of renewals till May. But Nikita and Hart are a likely renewal and I think that next season both shows will switch places with Nikita being on the bubble or likely cancellation and Hart being likely renewal.

  • San

    I love beauty and the Beast e I believe in a second season

  • stan

    Maybe 90210 could be paired with the summer premiere of ANTM. Could be a good pair. ANTM did fairly well if I remember correctly. At least good enough for another season. And 90210 can’t sink further with last Monday’s ratings.

    How fun would it be if the Superbowl would be on the CW next year. The Superbowl didn’t had that much of an impact on their schedule so why not give it to their little sis The CW. I know that it’s never gonna happen. But I like the thought.

  • danielcw

    Can, with backing from the tax credit, CBS-Studios give away Body Of Proof to CBS for free, or would that violate any laws of fair competition?

  • Fay

    Beauty and the Beast is probably the only show on the CW that appeals to a wide range of viewers of all ages. It has a dedicated International Fan Base but, sadly, their opinions and support don’t seem to be important. USA viewers get to decide which shows the rest of us have access to. Well, if Beauty and the Beast does get cancelled, this Beastie will not watch any other show produced by the CW!

  • Shepherd

    @danielcw

    BOP is an ABC studios production, and it airs on ABC. I don’t think CBS has the rights to give it away.

  • sarah

    The retention argument is total crap. It always has been. What makes anyone think that a show after TVD would retain TVD fans when they have a huge online fan base that would like to discuss a new episode after it has aired? The shows are dissimilar. They are different stories. They have different motivations, different draws, etc. And why was BatB the only show even downgraded from .6 to .5 this week after the half hour? That’s total garbage. They went to watch 1600 Penn on NBC with a lower rating than the Parks and Recs? Yeah, suuure… While TCD still remains OTB. Please, get over the Schwartz fixation.

  • Romina

    Everybody keeps talking about the so call lead-in, well let me tell you that I don’t tune in for the TVD, I only like B&B, it’s the only CW show that I watch. Most of Beauty and beast fans don’t watch TVD either. It would be a great idea if they changed the day/time, B&B is on a tough timeslot. Even without the TVD as a lead-in, all those people would watch B&B anyway and maybe even more.

  • Thoma

    Renew Beauty and the former underwear model!Their chemistry is AMAZING

  • Dan S

    I’m a big fan of Nashville & even I’m surprised to see certain renewal. I’d have it at likely renewal since their numbers are so soft. I’d also downgrade MC, Go On & Whitney to llikely cancellation & Touch, Smash & TNN to certain cancellation.

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