Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Brandy

    Edzik& lalinge, BaTB is Likley to be cancelled and CD on the bubble because BataB gets the same ratings with plenty of promotion and the best leadin CW has while CD has no leadin.This week CD got a 0.4. VD(BataB leadin) got a 1.3 and BatB got 0.5.! It fell in demo the last two weeks from 0.7 to 0.6 to 0.5.The PCA wins ect aren’t helping BatB.CW wants a show after VD that will keep more than 50%-70% of its audience , which Beauty is not doing.The Originals will be put after VD next season.
    The people complaining about Cults timeslots:first networks don’t usually move a fall show with season to make room for a Midseason show with only 13 episodes.Secondly, networks aren’t also going to move a struggling freshman show to fri to kill it to put a show there that may do no better.I watch VD but wouldn’t watch Cult just cause Matt’s in it.They are very different tone and theme wise, VD, and Cult.BaTB is more like VD in tone and theme.Thirdly, not every new CW show can get the wonderful VD leadin.Schedule wise it’s just not possible.Fourth, no show has done well after VD so it being paired with Cult might not have helped Cult cause VD fans just don’t watch what’s on after it.Cult also had negative early reviewes which might have contributed to its poor ratings as well as the fact few Midseason shows now days seem to do well.

  • Shepherd

    @sarah

    “And why was BatB the only show even downgraded from .6 to .5 this week after the half hour?”

    Maybe they were flipping through channels? Maybe they just decided to turn of their televisions to go eat dinner? Maybe part of that .6 during the first half hour represented people who watched TVD and just left their TVs on the CW for a minute or two while they tweeted about the shows ending? There are a thousand reasons why a show numbers might fall or raise at the half hour, and none of them include some kind of conspiracy.

  • JulieDawn

    The only conspiracy here is the one to gain page views.

  • Shepherd

    rise* lol

  • Miles

    OT: Sorry to bother you, but do you have any idea from which series this tv poster is? Can’t figure it out and you all probably know better.. Thanks!!

  • sarah

    “There are a thousand reasons why a show numbers might fall or raise at the half hour, and none of them include some kind of conspiracy.”

    Yeah right. It’s always just another reason except the latter. Put the tin foil hat on the gal who smells a fish. Nielsen is an outdated monopoly with horrendous sampling. It’s time to break it up and get some real competition going.

  • Ashley

    I’m still hoping The Following improves on its writing and plot. I’d love TF be the new 24. Kevin Bacon is awesome. Good to hear it will likely be renewed.

  • Justin121

    Both ABC and NBC will have to make some compromises.

    You can’t expect newer shows to get high ratings anymore unless you luck out with a Modern Family or a 2 Broke Girls.

    Otherwise, Hart of Dixie, Nashville, are “The New Normal” for what is considered accpeotable performance / moderate hits.

    Ben & Kate, Body of Proof, Malibu Country, among others, should be graded on a curve.

  • David Howell

    That’s an interesting point about the TVD audience discussing episodes afterwards. Probably only The Originals could retain that crowd (and I think we’ll see that next season).

    I don’t see BATB renewed, at least HOD can show it’s a self-starter (and it reruns well) and TCD arguably is too, building out of the lowest rated show on network television. Also, HOD is halfway to the magic 88 and is allegedly super cheap, so the syndication economics beloved of CBS favour its renewal.

    Over on FOX, “likely renewal” for The Following is perfect. It’s basically saying “unlikely to replicate Alcatraz”. I think Touch has to be moved to certain cancellation though. Indeed, I think the bear will get to eat the show by April.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Retentionista! Burn him!

  • trstno01

    As much as things look when it comes to viewership Beauty And The Beast is currently the forth highest watched show on the network behind only Vampire Diaries,Arrow and Supernatural. Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Nikita are lower down the list and let’s not forget Cult…Now unless production costs are a factor in the decision of renewal that’s another story but when it comes to ratings its been better then the ones I mentioned.

  • lalinge

    Brandy – ok, i get it that BATB can’t keep 50%-70% of TVD’s audience, but they don’t have to cancel the show! they decided to put BATB after TVD, but a lot of people love this show! CW can move BATB to another day! beacuse the ratings are still better than HOD & TCD.

  • sarah

    “That’s an interesting point about the TVD audience discussing episodes afterwards. Probably only The Originals could retain that crowd (and I think we’ll see that next season).

    I don’t see BATB renewed, at least HOD can show it’s a self-starter (and it reruns well) and TCD arguably is too, building out of the lowest rated show on network television.”

    What? So is the point interesting or simply disregarded in the case of TCD and HOD. BatB isn’t a self-starter because of the TVD or isn’t it? TCD has gotten loads more promotion than BatB ever did. Loads more. Even when BatB won the PCA, they had the fly the two main actors out the day that they won it. I don’t care whether you can vote more than once on these internet related awards. Another award where you couldn’t do so – the Spoiler TV awards – the show won four categories in. There is a huge discrepancy between what Nielsen is saying and what internet and fan response is saying.

  • JulieDawn

    @Bill Gorman

    The stake is being readied

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Marc Berman doing a bad Vader voice

    “Seidman once thought as you do. You don’t know the power of the Retentionista Side…”

  • Nikki

    @ dave im not so bitter anymore. But the show really is crappy.. i mean ive got a pretty optimistic view for tv and i watch a lot of different things. But Beauty and the beast is awful. It was from the begininng, and has gotten much worse. Its time for it to go.. the CW makes very strange decisions and keep god awful shows and cancel good ones. I cant make it through not one show on the network. And ive tryed.. and the ones i do get into they get cancelled.

  • JulieDawn

    @trstno01

    Apparently BATB production costs are not as big an issue as they might be with other shows, as it’s made in partnership with a Canadian company.

  • JulieDawn

    @Bill Gorman

    The Beasties will even take on Vader!

  • DonnaT

    @ Justin
    Supernatural – moved to Friday

    That was Ostroff’s revenge against a show she couldn’t stand so she sent SPN to Friday to “die” – but it didn’t -so the Winchesters have the last laugh :). with a near guaranteed S10.

    Anywho, moving on…I also think The CW should swap Cult’s and B&TB timeslots; at least Cult has “TVD’s Alaric” and SPN’s “Jo Harvelle”. FWIW, I liked Cult’s premiere a lot… I enjoy puzzle-like shows that make you think hard. That’s one reason I like SPN so much.

    At this point I don’t think The CW has anything to lose with a swap; I doubt The CW can just ‘pull the plug” on any current show unless they have another super cheap reality show (I don’t mean the already scheduled Oh Sit! that is planned for TCD’s timeslot after its 13 episode S1 run) to replace Cult.

  • sarah

    “. i mean ive got a pretty optimistic view for tv and i watch a lot of different things. But Beauty and the beast is awful.”

    Sure you do. I’m sure you don’t have any vendetta either against it either. :rolleyes:

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