Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Dan

    @Dan S – Nashville is certain only because of the failures of all the other freshman ABC dramas and its numbers look good as its neck and neck with Chicago Fire.

    Go On and Whitney is more bubble only because All of NBC’s comedies are garabge so when all are garbage those two are the most likely to be saved. Malibu Country could realistically go either way but i’d bet on cancellation and Touch and Smash will be certain soon enough.

    As for Beauty and the Beast, it doesn’t matter what other sites think. Deadline believed last season that CW would renew Secret Circle and cancel Hart of Dixie and Nikita. They even said Ringer has a chance. History repeats itself and knowing that with VD, Arrow, & Supernatural already renewed and Emily Owens & Gossip Girl already finished, I can predict that Nikita and Hart of Dixie will be renewed, Beauty and the Beast and Cult will be cancelled and real bubble series Carrie Diaries and 90210 will be given a second chance and final season respectively.

  • Nikki

    @ sarah whatever you want to tell yourself. Ive watched a lot of different things.. but this show was not worth it.

  • sarah

    @nikki

    I’ve watched a lot of different things to. If I don’t like them, I change the channel. I don’t come on websites like a jealous schoolgirl stating they are awful. But I think people who have other underhanded motivations would.

  • DW

    ok help me out here. so should people blame TGW on TM raTings even though TM has better ratings than TGW under less competition?.

  • Diana

    Hey!!! Beauty And The Beast needs to change back to “Likely renewal”! It doesn’t need to in the “Likely cancelled”! BATB deserves to get a second season!! All of us fans known as Beasties, we are all huge fans of BATB & you need to hear from all of us!! Hear us fans roaring!! This has great storyline!! It won a People’s Choice! It won 4 Spoiler TV awards! & by winning all these, it means it deserves a second season! Canceling Beauty And The Beast, NOT…GONNA…HAPPEN!!!! It deserves a Likely Renewal!!!

  • Dan

    @Robert or Bill – With Up All Night, Could this be the first instance where every indication of a series getting cancelled and the network still wants to keep it. Low ratings, star left, co stars wanting to pursue other pilots, trouble on the set making new episodes, creator and show runner moving on.

    I agree with whoever said Hart of Dixie is a self starter, both Nikita and HOD are self starters and even Carrie Diaries has shown that. Beauty and the Beast hasn’t shown that and CW probably thinks, whats the point of renewing BATB if it can’t lead off a night. Thats not a gamble the CW wants to take. Last year CW was the hardest network to figure out in terms of there bubble shows, this year its the easiest. The only thing that’s difficult to figure is 90210. Its ratings are truly garbage but its CW, and 90210 was once a flagship series.

  • Dave S.

    I think it is tough to predict the CW. I don’t know that we get all the information on how they decide. People calling a show horrible or the best is of no interest. The fact is TVD is a hard show to follow for whatever reason. That is what the numbers say over the years. I do think people have a point here, The Originals has the best chance of holding the crowd and pushing the after festivities an hour back–it has a wildly active fanbase.

    I watch both TVD and BATB. I have always thought it an odd pairing. I do think BATB fans will follow it to another night. If the CW believes that then why wouldn’t they prefer that over some of the other shows?

    I have a hard time believing the 4th overall ranked show on CW should be on your likely cancelled list. We will see.

  • stevenD

    From NBC, I’d save Go On and Whitney. Go On cause of the star, people would more likely jump in during the second season. I also think they’d pair it with MJF, which would be a good lead in. Whitney for spackle, I think it might just limp its way into syndication

    ABC, Last Man Standing will return, not sure when and where. Malibu Country, not sure.

    Not much to say for Fox

    CBS, Rules of Engagement was sold into syndication to TBS. Maybe they would renew it, with the slim possibility of it becoming exposed like Big Bang? The Good Wife is done, Mentalist could move to Friday, or they could pair it up with Elementary on Sunday next season?

  • Claudia

    “im not so bitter anymore. But the show really is crappy.. i mean ive got a pretty optimistic view for tv and i watch a lot of different things. But Beauty and the beast is awful”

    People has different pov when it comes to a show, I havent watched the cw in a long long time, since it was thewb with Roswell, and BATB caught my eye, and Im telling you I watch all kind of shows, Brittish shows, Italian shows, Canadian, and all the cable tv shows and this is the only broadcast show I watch I gave up on OUAT as soon as got into, and to be honest this show is really amazing, can get cheesy at times,yes, I like cheesy! But is a show that will take you away in that hour slot, the main leds are so good together and so into their characters is so amazing. Sorry but thats your POV (Nikki) there are many of us that think different.

    Also, the Nielsen rating is so freaking old people need to move on to the next level, WHY most of the CW shows are so POPULAR on the internet and not in ratings, people are watching this shows somewhere, probably all those nielsen boxes users are the same people that have been watching box tv from 40 or 50 years ago and only watch ABC, CBS and NBC , the rest of the people moved on and are using the internet, itunes, hulu etc. who watches live tv now???? Something is wrong!!!!!

  • stevenD

    nevermind about Rules of Engagement, airs during the day on TBS

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Fay –

    “It has a dedicated International Fan Base but, sadly, their opinions and support don’t seem to be important.”

    Of course they don’t. For the exact same reason that the opinion of US fans has absolutly no baring on international television shows.

    “USA viewers get to decide which shows the rest of us have access to”

    Um, last I checked there were plenty of other countries with their own broadcast stations and TV shows. There is a lot to chose from and the silly US fans can’t do a thing about it or mess it up for you. Have fun.

  • Nikki

    @ claudia sure everyone doesnt have to like the shows i like and i dont have to like the shows i like. My simple point was i feel the show isnt good, and its proved that with its ratings all season. And my second point was that the CW is weird in how they decide to keep shows and cancel them. I personally dont watch the network.. none of the shows are for me.. ive tryed and failed on that network several times. And the shows i did like on the network dont last long so i dont bother at all with this network. And i too watch all different shows myself and all kinds of tv. Im pretty open minded when it comes to tv.

  • TSC’s Revenge

    I’ve come to the conclusion that BATB simply sucks. KK now has the “secret” and everyone swirling around her is pissed that she isn’t being truthful. It’s kinda like Smallville in that respect, albeit with a reversal of characters. IMO… boring…

  • Claudia

    @Purple Drazi

    Do you have to be mean like that? Just shhhushh, my mom thaught me if I dont have anything nice to say just keep it to myself.

    For some reason, the CW tends to listen to the international viewers, if a show will sell good internationally and is making such and such ratings can still keep it over a show that is doing great usa ratings but not selling internationally ala Nikita, CW ratings might look crappy to some, but I think at the end of the day they do better in other areas we simple viewers dont know and they take their decissions based on the money a show might make and future income revenue. IMHO!

  • Claudia

    @TSC Revenge, as revenger you seem to be pretty into the show to be that bitter.

  • Nikki

    and i agree 100% about the Nielsen system. Its bull and really outdated way to compute ratings. I was a Nielsen house once and it was really silly how they did it.

  • Dan S

    @Dan, I know it’s splitting hairs regarding the status of Nashville. I see shows like Revenge, Castle & Suburgatory drawing stronger numbers & yet they’re at likely renewal as they should. As a freshman show you’d expect stronger ratings before being certain renewal as in no doubt it’ll be back. I’d hate to see it take a late season ratings nosedive like RVN did recently. It most likely will be back on a new day next season.

  • JulieDawn

    @TSC’s Revenge

    Your user name says enough for us to know your comments aren’t based on anything logical

  • Mi

    @sarah I find it hilarious that after your nasty posts about Arrow (much ado about nothing as you claimed) you dare to lecture people that dislike B&tB..

  • Dan

    @StevenD – Its too late for Rules of Engagement, the show is older than Big Bang Theory and the only reason Rules was renewed was to get it up to 100 eps and only because CBS seemed to have no faith in Partners and Friend Me, one of which is a flop and the second never even premiered. The 7th season gamble paid off but now its the end of the road for Rules. The last episode will be a good finale I hear.

    I agree though that ABC will likely renew Last Man Standing and likely cancel Malibu Country. I don’t see Elementary moving to Sundays, if anything Hawaii 5-0 could move to Sundays at Elementary could move to Mondays at 10. CSI to Fridays replacing CSI NY. In that case a new drama Thursdays at 10, Wednesdays at 10 and NCIS LA spinoff at 10 Tuesdays.

    As for Mentalist and Good Wife, TGW numbers are worse but it gets the edge because CBS owns it. If they can ever get a syndication deal, the series may be profitable. The Mentalist has entered syndication and is owned by WB.

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