Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    “Seidman once thought as you do. You don’t know the power of the Retentionista Side…”

    Ha, but more “even a busted clock is right twice a day” (and in this case, perhaps only if you’re the CW show that follows The Vampire Diaries) than the pull of the dark side!

  • catsrule

    If Fringe can get several seasons with lousy ratings on Fridays, Touch (a far superior show) should be given the same chance.

  • david

    The CW needs to cancil 90210 for sure. The Carrie Diaries i am not sure it is not steady it got a .6, .5, .7, .5. Heart of Dixie seems to be steady so it mostly like get renewed. Cult started off really bad. Beauty and the Beast i really lik eht eshow but a .5 out of a 1.3 is really bad and the past few weeks it got a .6 and .5. I hope they keep it and move it ti Fridays at 9.

  • BPKK

    I don’t know about this renewal / cancel thing when it comes to CW shows. Last year at this time, this site had Hart of Dixie as Likely to be Cancelled http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/02/21/bubble-watch-cw-its-hard-to-imagine-gossip-girl-being-renewed-with-its-ratings-but/120724/

    And throughout the early spring, this site also kept predicting one or both of either HOD or Nikita being cancelled and both Bill and Robert incorrectly predicted Nikita’s cancellation at the end of last season.

    “After having them as “toss ups” for renewal or cancellation for most of the year, I predicted cancellation for both Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, and blew both those calls. After being moved to a “toss up” late in the season, I predicted that The Secret Circle would be renewed, and blew that call too. Props to Robert who called both Hart Of Dixie and The Secret Circle correctly, and missed only Nikita.”

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/15/cw-renewcancel-wrap-the-secret-circle-ringer-canceled-nikita-hart-of-dixie-gossip-girl-renewed/134188/

    Still think that unless you can see the production costs, online viewing numbers and overseas sales figures, that you can’t tell which of the low-rated shows on the CW will be renewed or cancelled over the other.

    Although I do think 90210 having reached syndication numbers, having a 0.2 and averaging 714,000 viewers since the break, being the only CW show besides Nikita and Emily Owens that I never see ranking on the iTunes Top 200 TV Season chart (not counting Cult yet), being the only show the CW chose not to air repeats of during the holiday break, and with every repeat of all the other CW shows having more viewers than 90210’s last episode well, I’d say maybe only a 2 episode renewal airing as a 2 hour movie for next season at most.

    @justin121

    Supernatural – moved to Friday
    Nikita – moved to Friday
    Secret Circle – cancelled

    I’d hardly call that a “golden spot”.

    Would have to agree with you there, especially if BatB gets cancelled or shipped to Fridays. If retention out of Vampire is such a problem, especially with Glee, Grey’s and POI there as well, why don’t they move Vampire to 9 and try a show before it. Is there or has there been a 9pm show that actually does better than its lead-in on the CW? Seems the CW shows have so few viewers, that the affiliate shows are actually better lead-ins, maybe especially for newer shows.

    Still wonder why they didn’t move Beauty either before or after HOD on Tuesday and try Cult behind Vampires. I actually think there’s less competition for each of those respective new shows if they switched timeslots. Seems Grey’s and Glee would be less competition for Cult’s audience and NCIS and two half hour comedies would be less competition for Beauty’s audience as well, plus Beauty and Hart at least have the romance angle and Cult has the Matt Davis tie-in with VD.

  • Nick

    Ah!!! Robert has turned Retentionista!!! Bill, I’d watch my back if I were you.

    In all seriousness, I think Retentionistas have given retention a bad name. It does matter just a little. It can be the swaying power in extremely tough decisions (like Hart of Dixie v. The Secret Circle last year) and I think that will be the case again. Moving Beauty and the Beast to likely cancellation wouldn’t be the move I’d take. I’d move HOD to likely renewal instead.

    ===

    My predictions for the bubble shows-

    Body Of Proof: Too soon to tell
    Last Man Standing: Renewed
    Malibu Country: Cancelled
    Good Wife, The: Depends on complex $ numbers that we don’t have
    Mentalist, The: Depends on complex $ numbers
    Rules of Engagement: Renewed as filler
    Carrie Diaries, The: Cancelled
    Hart Of Dixie: Renewed, see above
    Community: Too soon to tell
    Go On: Renewed
    Whitney: Renewed

  • Nick

    Aargh, the spam filter (or whatever) took my post away because I said “retentionista” twice & it no like links.

  • Nick

    Oh, its back. Whopee.

  • Dave

    @Nikki

    I don’t get why you’re going so hard on The CW when it’s basically operating the way a network should operate.

    I mean CBS, ABC, and FOX all cancel shows at the end of a season and new ones take their place.

    How is that different from The CW?

  • sarah

    “I find it hilarious that after your nasty posts about Arrow (much ado about nothing as you claimed) you dare to lecture people that dislike B&tB..”

    I have never posted any nasty posts about Arrow. And if you saw another Sarah, it isn’t exactly a rare name, you know?

  • Mi

    @sarah yeah, I’m sure.. too bad there are no IPs listed below each post.

  • Tangela Johnson

    Tired of shows I liked getting cancelled think will get into cable shows next time only 2 shows into now BATB and Scandal well Spartacus but this is the last season of that. I love BATB so much hell you got rid of The last Resort, 666 Park Avenue, Missing, and V please don’t take BATB away to.

  • bayk

    Oh God I never saw “beauty and the beast”, but fans of this series are totally crazy. I think that anyone sees their behavior will give up series

  • Alan

    TV By The Numbers took too long to see that BATB was a retentionista lol

  • Pepper

    HoD is a likely renewal. Its ratings are low but steady, it’s cheap to produce, it’s closer than BatB for possible syndication, and it’s not reliant on any other show to produce those steady ratings.

  • Charo

    BatB is a great show. Fu** all of you. TVD is geting boring with all this “Elena crap” sooooooo boring!!!!! I love Klaroline more than Stefan, Damon or dumb Elena. Beauty and the Beast is the best show. Just because in the eeuu people dont like it doesnt mean that we all have to do the same. Im from Argentina. Love the show, and honesty, i hate this kind of crap.

    Oh, and no one cares about the Following. A show about a psyco with all the problems that you’ll have as a society. HA HA HA….. bitch please.

  • andy

    ” KK now has the “secret” and everyone swirling around her is pissed that she isn’t being truthful. It’s kinda like Smallville in that respect, albeit with a reversal of characters. ” – hahahahaha, that’s so true!!!! Sometimes I watch “beauty and the beast” but kristen.k will always be for me Lana Lang

  • Dan

    @Dan S – Suburgatory, Castle, and Revenge are more certain realistically to return then Nashville.I guess some shows on this list need to be listed as likely. Like there’s no reason why Hawaii 5-0 is likely when it should be certain as is Elementary.

    I can say 100% that every single show on the likely to be renewed list will certainly come back, with the exception of The Neighbors. Nashville is more 90% then 100% but with Last Resort & 666 Park Avenue both flops, as well as Zero Hour and Red Widow also gone, Nashville is ABC’s last drama shot to save face for this season. Last season ABC didn’t have to save face because their 3 breakout dramas were or are now doing great but they had to before with Body of Proof, V, Castle and Private Practice.

    @David – Carrie Diaries numbers are going down but my guess is that CW will give it another chance. Out of 5 dramas debuted its likely they would renew at least 2. Arrow has been renewed, Emily Owens has been cancelled, and BATB & Cult are both more likely to be cancelled then Carrie Diaries. CW seems to like the show I think it might get a “Life Unexpected” second chance.

    @BPK – Nikita being renewed last season meant one thing for the CW, if a show is renewed for a full second season on the CW then it will get a third then fourth. Thats why Hart of Dixie will get renewed with Nikita. CBS has a similar pattern in that shows given a full second season have gotten a third and fourth. First season shows don’t get that same chance, so BATB is gone.

    @Castrule – Fringe is different, it was once highly rated behind House in its first season, did OK behind Fringe in its second and the first half of its third season behind Bones and against CSI, Grey’s and Office competition. It wasn’t until the second half of season 3 that it was moved to Fridays by that time it had 65 episodes and then a 22 episode fourth season would get it syndication for WB to 87. Fox was nice enough to give it a short farewell season (like Gossip Girl, Chuck, and Private Practice got) to get it up to 100. With Fringe its ratings went down gradually but were never crap to start. Touch’s numbers went down so fast but FOX renewed it to save face since other dramas that season, Terra Nova, Alcatraz and The Finder were cancelled. Touch doesn’t have the numbers or fan base to get a third season and the only reason FOX isn’t pulling it is because its a second year series and they put up with The Mob Doctor in the fall on mondays, I think they can put up with 9 more Touch episodes.

  • Justin

    The reason that BATB is now likely cancellation and TCD is still bubble might be because both are working with two different situations based on timeslot nights.

    BATB is airing on Thursday night and has the best lead-in with VD. The show was also supported with one of the highest promotion and has network expectation backing it. Arrow and BATB got the most promotion before/during Fall in 2012 – Arrow for being the new “IT” show and BATB for being the next big hit, especially by bringing back KK to the network. Even though Thursday at 9 p.m. hasn’t been great the last three shows, Thursday is still The CW’s best night. BATB should be doing better, especially with an episodic format, promotion and everything else.

    TCD’s ratings are bad but they’re still alright… for a Monday night. 90210 and GG were declining way back in the fall and GG’s “farewell season” was possibly the only thing saving its timeslot. Now that 90210 is on Monday at 9 p.m. (well… now on Monday in general) and it’s just another season, the show has plummeted in viewers. While I agree that TCD got a lot of promo near its premiere, The CW was trying to fix the “Monday” issue and make the show a hit. It’s definitely a toss up and The CW could take a chance on it like HOD. Since it’s a self-starter that is trying to survive on a terrible night and support a near-death demo show.

    Though, we won’t know until it happens as it’s really hard to guess what The CW will actually do come renewals.

  • Jane Adams

    NO, NO, NO, NO – Beauty and the Beast cannot be cancelled !!!!!!!! I love this show. It is the most romantic love story I think I have ever seen on TV, it has real feeling and the actors are amazing. Do not cancel it, that would be a massive mistake. How can a show win awards as it has recently and then be cancelled, I dont understand. Give it a chance……… please.

  • Tangela Johnson

    CW does not have the man power like the big 3 ABS, CBS, nor NBC so how can you rank their ratings as good as toughs networks

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