Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Brandy

    @Dan, can I ask you’re so set on CD being renewed?Midseason shows usually don’t do well and up cancelled and it got a 0.4Mon, every other young(3 seasons or less) show on CW to get that has been cancelled besides Nikita ,which was only renewed for syndication.CD is too far away from that and if renewed, ratings will continue to sink,Also,CW promoted the heck out of CD and except for one 0.7,it’s not doing that well.CW can cancel CD,BatB,Cult,LA Complex,Gzg,EOMD and have four spots for new shows next year.Also, I’m sure shooting in NY and the 80s time frame isn’t that cheap.I also don’t Remeber CW ever renewing 2 freshman shows and arrow gets the freshman renwal this time.I am a CD fan too and don’t mean to sound like I’m bashing it,CW I’m sure hoped for much better ratings for it with all the promotion, reruns on Fri, moving it so would have a higher rated leadin of syndicated reruns rather than 90210,whose ratings are really bad.But that won’t stop Mark from canceling it even if he likes it/believes in it.They have also never given a Midseason show a renewal or a Life Unexpected type second chance that I’m aware of.Life Unexpected was getting 1.0 in season one and 0.7s in season btw so it was doing much better than CD, though the ratings average of CW has dropped a lot since then.

  • HandSanitizer

    who cares whether B&tB is the 4th highest rated show in CW. B&tB rating fall from 1.2 to 0.5 from series premiere and that’s not a good thing! the same goes to TSC last year (also the 4th highest rate dshow in CW)

  • omabin

    I agree with Nick 100%. I think retention does matter a little in these hard calls situations, but I would also prefer his move of moving Hart of Dixie to likely renewal than moving Beauty and the Beast to likely canceled. Despite the lead-in, I don’t think beauty and the beast is in a worse situation than the carrie diaries, so they should be on the same boat. HoD is a self-starter, steady, allegedly cheap, and will have two seasons by May. I find it extremely unlikely that it is gone.

    As for my disagreements:
    - Happy Endings: Bubble Show. I just don’t think it is as simple as you guys make it out to be. Why are they still bother airing it in season if it is done? They could have axed it together with Apartment 23.
    - 90210: Bubble Show, see above
    - Touch: I would argue that we could say it is a certain cancelation, but it doesn’t matter
    - Last Man Standing: I feel confident enough to have it as likely renewal by now
    - Hart of Dixie: Likely Renewal (see above)
    - Go On: Likely Renewal. I really think that out of the 7 new comedies they have announced last May (Go On, The New Normal, Animal Practice, Guys with Kids, 1600 Penn, Save Me, Next Caller), they are going to salvage something and I think this is their something, even if they do it as a sparkle, a la Whitney
    - The Neighbours: Bubble Show, for scheduling issues and for being the low point of the block
    - Revenge: Certain Renewal
    - Hawaii Five-0: Certain Renewal
    - The Mindy Project: Bubble Show
    - Parks and Recreation: Certain Renewal
    - Nashville: Likely Renewal

    And then my predictions for the bubble shows:
    - Body of Proof: Too Soon to Tell
    - Malibu Country: It is truly a toss up, I am puzzled here
    - The Good Wife: Renewal (likely for a 13 ep season only)
    - The Mentalist: Renewal
    - Rules of Engagement: Canceled, although I think they should renew it as a filler again
    - The Carrie Diaries: Canceled
    - Community: Renewal as a sparkle again to get it to 100 eps
    - Whitney: Renewal
    - Happy Endings: Cancelation
    - The Neighbours: Renewal

  • Kavyn

    I hated TSC last year, but even I agree with its fans that TSC did better than BATB in that timeslot. TSC was still able to maintain TVD’s audience until Spring, while BATB plummeted almost immediately in the Fall. If BATB ever gets a 0.4 I’m sure it’s going to be a certain cancellation.

  • Dan

    @Justin – Could not agree with you more. Its not the shows, its the days. CW knows for next season that they want The Originals paired with Vampire Diaries, so maybe the Originals could either build on or retain better of VD at least more than Nikita, The Secret Circle or Beauty and the Beast could. They probably think that BATB wouldnt work on another night.

    M<onday is trouble for The CW with both veterans Gossip Girl and 90210 flopping on the night. Hart of Dixie was saved last season because of its growth out of Gossip Girl, Carrie Diaries will be saved because it has done better in the slot then both GG and 90210. Carrie Diaries could potentially lead the night off for mondays next season seing how GG is done and 90210 may be done. CW needs some consistency so I say this for next season.

    MOnday
    8:00 Carrie Diaries
    9:00 90210 (Final season)

    Tuesday
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 NEW DRAMA

    Thursday
    8:00 Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Supernatural

    Its more likely that CW will want 3 new dramas and 7 returning series for next season and with no ANTM on the fall schedule for the first time, this seems like the best way.

    @Brandy – CW has renewed 2 freshman shows before just never 2 FALL freshman shows with the exception of Gossip Girl and Reaper (for midseason) In 2010 CW has renewed Vampire Diaries and Life Unexpected. That season had shows similar to this season A breakout hit (Vampire Diaries and Arrow) a show that failed (Beautiful Life and Emily Owens), a show that lasted the whole season but was axed (Melrose Place and likely Beauty and the Beast), and a midseason drama that did ok enough for a second chance renewal (Life Unexpected and Carrie Diaries) I believe Out of 5 dramas, along with Arrow, Carrie Diaries could get that second chance. Also Life Unexpected was getting 1.0s but guess what all series numbers were higher 3 years ago. CW may have hoped for much better ratings but at this point they'll take what they can get. Its hard to lead a night, especially Monday nights for The CW but Hart of Dixie showed that it could, Carrie Diaries may be what CW needs for next year.

  • Kavyn

    @Brandy The CW didn’t renew two new shows last year or the year before because they had horrible ratings, not because they only renew one new show a year…

  • Nikki

    @ Dave i didnt realize i was being hard on them. Ive gotten into a few shows on the network good shows and they get cancelled and awful terrible shows get renewed. And then they add more awful shows when the new seasons start. And they never have anything original either.. its always a rip off of the same stuff theyve already had. They seem to care more about how cheap a show is to make then the quality of the show. I dont bother with the network anymore.. i watch mostly cable tv shows with the exception of 2. One is on Fox and the other NBC.

  • Brandy

    @Kavyn, I know.My point was that it seems even with 4-5 new shows, usually only one does well enough to get renewed.

  • Fran Amado

    It is a shame that Beauty & the Beast has been downgraded. The episodes have only gotten better and better. Unfortunately the Neilsen ratings do not reflect the effect this show has had in the social media and outside the US. It has been explosive. This show is so much better than others currently running. Unfortunately the first couple of episodes were moderate, followed by a story arc with a fiance that some did not like. But now it has become thrilling and with endless possibilities. Hope the CW has more vision and gives this show a chance to increase its following.

  • Nikki

    If the CW has any chance of surviving it has to revamp its whole network. Come up with fresh new shows, with good actors and good writiers and stop doing the same tired stuff every year. And im sure ill get attacked for this but even VD is going to start to fall eventually.. its success wont last much longer. The vampire thing is dying out, and SN will end eventually just like OTH did.

  • Kavyn

    Ah I see, yes you make a good point. I like to think it’s due to the lack of advertising and bad scheduling.

  • Laura

    I’ve watched BATB since the beginning and true, it was slow moving at first, but the last handful of episodes have been great and the romance part is finally there. I’ve watched TVD for a while and this season seems to be lagging for me, I’m losing interest, while BATB has been great. It’s been a long time since I’ve been so interested in a TV show on which I look forward to each new week’s episode. Just move the night for the second season. There are a ton of die-hard fans of this show.
    No thanks on the Carrie Diaries. I’m surprised SN has been on so long.

  • Edward

    no I don’t care, I do believe Beauty and the Beast will get renewed! It’s the best series on CW besides Arrow. I also want The New Normal to be renewed too! Please!

  • Melissa

    Did anyone else notice that CBS has at least one show from each of the past ten years?

    Season 10: Two and a Half Men, NCIS
    Season 9: How I Met Your Mother, CSI: NY
    Season 8: Criminal Minds
    Season 7: Rules of Engagement
    Season 6: The Big Bang Theory
    Season 5: The Mentalist
    Season 4: The Good Wife, NCIS: Los Angeles
    Season 3: Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly, Blue Bloods
    Season 2: 2 Broke Girls, Person of Interest
    Season 1: Vegas, Elementary

  • halloween

    cw is almost out of options…they can’t cancel everything. cw might be dead if they can’t launch 2 hits next season

  • Dan

    @Melissa – HIMYM should be under Season 8. And that will change when CSI NY gets cancelled. Elementary will be the only show renewed from this season.

    @Kavyn – Also the past 2 seasons CW had only fall dramas and no midseason dramas (LA Complex was a Canadian import and doesn’t count) It seemed natural that out of 2 fall dramas in 2010 only 1 would be renewed (Nikita over Hellcats) and from last season only 1 would be renewed (Hart of Dixie over Secret Circle & Ringer) And both of those seasons all fall dramas got full seasons. THis year CW had 5 dramas 3 fall, 2 midseasons. It seemed obvious 2 out of the 3 fall dramas would get full seasons while 1 would be cancelled and it seems more likely that 1 of those 2 would be renewed (Arrow over BATB) and it seems just as likely CW would renew 1 midseason drama over the other (Carrie Diaries over Cult)

    @Brandy – While thats true, the CW has NEVER had 5 new dramas on there schedule, 4 has been the most so it seems more likely 2 out of 5 will be renewed.

  • Dan

    @Halloween – They can’t cancel everything and CW has 10 slots available for next season. With a few good shows (Arrow, Supernatural, and Vampire Diaries) no ANTM, and them wanting to premiere 3 new dramas that leaves 4 slots available for returning series. OK performing series Hart of Dixie and Nikita have done well enough for 2 slots, and promising Carrie Diaries could take the third slot. 90210 could take the fourth slot or they could axe it in favor of a fourth drama or reality show but I cant see CW bringing back BATB.

  • RG-X

    I saw CSI NY – I think they did a good job ending the show – not every show needs to have people go off to do something else or get killed off.

    It gave closure on a key story line in Macs life…and that’s all that matters.

    If some miracle CBS renews it – then great. If not – I think it can live on in syndication.

  • Kavyn

    @Dan I see where you’re coming from, but I doubt the CW is thinking that way. As long as they renew one show, they’re fine, since they’re ‘saving face’ (ie Nikita and HOD’s renewals were both meant to save face from having to cancel its other new shows, all of which were assumed to be hits at the beginning).

    Carrie Diaries was intended to be a hit, since the CW was hoping to get the Sex and the City crowd, and they didn’t get it. Cult’s very likely to get cancelled due to idiotic scheduling. EO is already cancelled and BATB is in a worse position than TSC was last year.

    I think it’s quite possible for one of the four to be renewed, but it’ll be based on how many pilots get ordered for Fall 2013, not for saving face. They already got a hit out of Arrow, and had Arrow flopped it’s likely they would have renewed TCD or BATB to save face (probably TCD since TCD is like this year’s HOD while BATB is like this year’s TSC).

    I believe 90210, Cult, EO, and BATB are guaranteed cancellations, with TCD being renewed/cancelled based on how many pilots are ordered. If they renew 90210 for a farewell season or whatever, then TCD will be cancelled. BATB should have been moved to Friday to see how it would have faired with Nikita, while premiering Cult after TVD for Matt Davis fans.

  • Mi

    @sarah I hope they check IPs now, posting under duplicate names should get you banned.

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