Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty and the Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Dan

    @RG-X – The series got 3 finales, that’s more than most series get. The best thing to do if you’re a series on CBS and you’re on the bubble is to make the season finale work as a series finale. Rules of Engagement is doing that for their finale this May.

  • JulieDawn

    @Justin

    I’d like to know what dream world you live in where BATB got high promotion.
    It’s had almost nothing – compared to TCD, which was promoted to the point of nausea.

  • Mi

    @Kavyn
    “If BATB ever gets a 0.4 I’m sure it’s going to be a certain cancellation.”
    And we all know it’ll get there by spring.

  • JulieDawn

    @Brandy

    Please look at your keyboard, or the virtual one on your phone.
    The long key in the middle at the bottom is a SPACE bar. Please use it.

  • Mi

    @JulieDawn
    “I’d like to know what dream world you live in where BATB got high promotion.”
    Honey, you probably haven’t been to NY this summer, because if you had, you would’ve seen cabs and billboard everywhere promoting B&tB..

  • Claudia

    @Mi
    you know that because you are a card reader, that knows the future? Not because you watch the show !

  • Dan

    @Kavyn – I think if 90210 gets a farwewell season, Carrie Diaries still can get another season. Who’s to say if CW has 5 pilots go to series they can’t air 3 in the fall and 2 midseason? A short season for 90210 means it gets timeshared with a new drama next season like how GG got timeshared with Carrie Diaries. They could air 3 dramas next fall as well as renew Carrie Diaries and 90210. If CD flops then they can cap it at 13 episodes and use a midseason drama to replace it or if 1 of the 3 new dramas flop they can air it out and do the same. Also there’s no ANTM so there’s that 1 more slot the CW needs for a returning drama.

    Carrie Diaries was intended to be a hit but what were The CW’s expectations for this season? They are a very low rated network that was lucky to get Arrow. So with Carrie Diaries they will work with what they can get. Another thing Carrie Diaries has going for it is that it has helped the troubled Monday slot which has been plagued this season with low rated Gossip Girl and 90210.

    The point since CW got 1 breakout hit they do need some returning shows to help out new potential series. Carrie Diaries works for mondays so far so they could take a gamble on it.

    If CW wanted Cult to be a hit they should have premiered it after Vampire Diaries and moved BATB to Emily Owens slot. BATB has proved that it cant hold up on its own let alone behind VD.

  • Oliver

    @omabin

    I agree that CBS should try to renew RoE. It’s a remarkably solid performer and would be a great utility player in CBS comedy expansion.

    (Personally, I can’t stand the show, but that’s not the point)

  • Laurel

    BaTB is awful television. The acting is ambarrassing, and the dialogue is even worse. This show does not deserver to come back and it would certainly fall to 0.3 and 0.2 ratings if moved to another night. There is no point in giving it a second season.

    I think The Carrie Diaries deserves a chance, since it’s well acted and fresh. Ther’s nothing on tv like it right now and for a change it’s actually a good teen show(GG, 90210, I’m looking at you).

    Hart of Dixie is nice and closer to syndication, so I think it will be renewed. And although the CW is probably going for a lot of genre shows next season, I do think that variety is the key to a successful network programming, so they will probably kep TCD and HOD for that.

    Nikita is a great show and I’m glad it will probably be renewed due to a possible syndication deal.

    So I think 90210 and BaTB should be cancelled. BaTB is a waste of the post-TVD slot and would flop without it, and 90210 is just past its expiration date. I’ll be happy if TCD and HOD are renewed and honestly I think it makes sense for the CW to renew these shows.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @sarah I hope they check IPs now, posting under duplicate names should get you banned.

    @Mi, indeed. Though he/she likely back someday with a new IP address. And a caution to you (and everyone else), even though you (the real “Mi”) didn’t do anything wrong, when there are shenanigans involving your name and you are someone who is using an obviously bogus e-mail address (which only the site admins can see), you risk being the baby that is thrown out with the bathwater.

    As ever, we encourage folks to sign up for and use Gravatar. This doesn’t guarantee you will never be spoofed, but it increases the difficulty enough as to discourage all but the craziest of crazies, and it eliminates any risk of being banned for using an obviously bogus e-mail address.

  • JulieDawn

    @Mi

    I am not your “honey”.
    And yes there was promotion at the beginning of the season in a few select cities, but still not to the same extent as TCD or other shows, and pretty much none since then.

  • Brandy

    @Dan another reason I believe CD will be cancelled is because CW is moving away from teen shows/teen soaps/teen dramas and going gene shows next season.While 90210 might get a short final season, that’s only because of it being a signature /flagship show and a vetran show and Marks respect for fans to give long running running shows a proper series finale.90210 could also be cancelled.While I do believe HoD will be renewed, I think it and maybe ,possibly 90210 will be the only two non-genre shows on cw next season.

  • Melissa

    @Dan

    HIMYM should be under Season 8. And that will change when CSI NY gets cancelled. Elementary will be the only show renewed from this season.

    Oops, my bad about How I Met Your Mother. But I meant that this particular season they have a show from each of the past ten years.

  • tommie

    I think out of Beauty and the Beast, Cult, 90210, The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie, I only see Dixie being renewed. Now that they have Arrow they could afford to entirely revamp either Monday or Tuesday. The Originals will of course be paired up with Vampire Diaries and there’s no guarantee that the small audience Beast has will follow it to a new night.

    The Carrie Diaries has been a failure and unless it starts to heat up again soon I don’t see them even giving it a pity renewal to save face.

  • Brandy

    @JulieDawn, I know how to use a space bar.Also, on the subject of BatBs promotion, it got lots of commercials in Denver and It,VD,Arrow,CD have been the most promoted cw shows this season while the rest get/got miminal.

  • Dan

    @Brandy – CW is definitely moving away toward those types of shows but that won;t stop them from renewing Carrie Diaries if it does well. If it flops next season then its done but its done good for Mondays.

    @Oliver – The reason I don’t believe Rules will be renewed is only because CBS has quite a few comedy pilots for next season and there is no guarantee that they will have a comedy expansion. Even if they do, I still think CBS is done with Rules only because the show seems played out if anything. They barely have room this season for Friend Me, even if Partners had gotten a full season. I cant see how CBS will air HIMYM, 2BG, TBBT, TAAHM, M&M and potentially 2 new comedies. Maybe HIMYM’s final season will be for midseason.

  • Kavyn

    @Dan: I still doubt TCD will get renewed for a half season. A 0.4 rating in their first season (and the show is only about halfway through) is not renewal territory. If they film in NY then that’s definitely going to cost a lot of money, as well as all of the fashion involved with the show. Not to mention all the advertising that went into the show, and they might have had to pay to be able to use elements of Sex and the City as well.

    I just don’t see it happening. Arrow, SPN, TVD, Nikita and HOD are definite renewals in my eyes (although we do have to keep in mind HOD would essentially be renewed for two seasons, just like Nikita).

    IF they renewed 90210/TCD, they would have to be banished to Friday. But then that would mean pairing Nikita with 90210/TCD with Nikita, which is just plain stupid for TCD (ie making it not worth renewing). They MIGHT renew BATB or Cult just to have something paired with Nikita, but that’s not worth doing either.

    The CW is going to have to order 4-5 pilots minimum.

  • Shepherd

    I’m not sure why everyone is convinced that CW will use the ANTM slot to launch a new drama. I would think that they might try to launch another reality program next year. ANTM has certainly done well for them. Even if their list of pilots don’t include any reality shows at the moment, most of them seem like something that could easily be ‘thrown together’ at the last minute.

  • Mi

    @Robert Thanks, I always use the same email address though, I don’t think the crazy impersonator used the same email as that info is not published.

    @JulieDawn
    “And yes there was promotion at the beginning of the season in a few select cities, but still not to the same extent as TCD or other shows, and pretty much none since then.”
    I saw as much promo for Arrow as B&tB so whatever.. they also started with the same 1.3 due to that promo. It was the quality that made B&tB lose half its audience the 2nd episode.

    I certainly hope the CW can renew more than just HoD and Nikita, whether they renew 90210, TCD, or B&tB I don’t care, but if they renew only TVD, Arrow, SPN, HoD, and Nikita, it would mean they’ll break the combo of SPN and Arrow because The CW will not debut 2 new dramas in the same day. They’ll always use the combo of one new show and one returning show.

  • JulieDawn

    @Brandy

    You missed multiple spaces in your reply, so perhaps your problem is not how to use the space bar, but an educational gap about where it should be used. I only say it because it makes your posts very hard to read.

    This is not twitter where you only have 140 characters.

    And, to the important issue, if you really followed the truth about BATB you would see the lack of promotion the CW gives it compared to most other shows. They run commercials for everything, that’s not the issue.
    But on Thursday airday, it’s actually CBS that sends out more promotional info about BATB than the CW does.

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