Bubble Watch: 'Beauty and the Beast' Likely to be Canceled; 'The Following' Upgraded

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

February 24th, 2013

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

The Following

I upgraded The Following back to likely renewal. I know some will complain that it should be a “certain renewal” and the rebound last week was a great sign for its prospects. If the season ended today, of course it would be renewed. But, The Following still has 9 out of its 15 episodes left to air. Know with certainty, that any commenters complaining it should be listed as a certain renewal right now are much more certain about its future prospects than I am!

Cult

Normally I hold shows on the bubble when they first premiere, but I moved Cult right to likely cancellation. I have no quarrel with anyone who suggests it should already be a certain cancellation, I’m just giving that another week or two.

Beauty And The Beast Downgraded

I’d been tempted to downgrade Beauty And The Beast for a while. While it had been out-performing it’s “on the bubble peers” similar to last year’s The Secret Circle, I didn’t like Beauty And The Beast’s position relative to the other shows on the bubble due to the fact that it has the best lead-in (The Vampire Diaries) that the CW has to offer. With Beauty And The Beast pulling a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday out of the 1.3 adults 18-49 rating The Vampire Diaries drew, even I’m a Retentionista!

NBC

Barring big changes to the ratings, I’m unlikely to move the NBC shows around much before The Voice and Revolution return. The comedies were in a range of 0.9-1.4. And sure, a 1.4 is 56% better than a 0.9, it’s still in a range where (in your best Billy Preston voices) you can sing “56% better than nothing is nothing.”

I still haven’t downgraded either Smash or Deception to certain cancellation, but you can chalk that up to inertia and/or apathy. And sure, Deception outperformed Smash by 33% last week (“33% better than nothing is nothing!”) but Deception had the much better lead-in than Smash.  Smash kept 100% of its lead-in, but in this case that isn’t good news.

Body Of Proof

It might irk Zero Hour fans that last week I moved it immediately to certain cancellation, but this week with similarly woeful ratings I have Body Of Proof on the bubble. But for now, there’s no history of listing Zero Hour as a likely or certain cancellation pretty much all season only to be proved wrong as is the case with Body Of Proof. View at as a one week sign of respect.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Zero Hour ABC Certain Cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain Cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain Cancellation
Up All Night NBC Perhaps already cancelled
tvbythenumbers.com
Happy Endings ABC Likely Cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Likely Cancellation
Vegas CBS Likely Cancellation
90210 CW Likely Cancellation
Beauty And The Beast CW Likely Cancellation
Cult CW Likely Cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Likely Cancellation
Touch Fox Likely Cancellation
Deception NBC Likely Cancellation
The New Normal NBC Likely Cancellation
Smash NBC Likely Cancellation
tvbythenumbers.com
Body Of Proof ABC On The Bubble
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Hart Of Dixie CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Likely Renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Likely Renewal
Revenge ABC Likely Renewal
Suburgatory ABC Likely Renewal
Elementary CBS Likely Renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Likely Renewal
Nikita CW Likely Renewal
Following, The Fox Likely Renewal
Mindy Project, The Fox Likely Renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Likely Renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Likely Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain Renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain Renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain Renewal
Nashville ABC Certain Renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain Renewal
Scandal ABC Certain Renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain Renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain Renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain Renewal
CSI CBS Certain Renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain Renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain Renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain Renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain Renewal
Glee Fox Certain Renewal
New Girl Fox Certain Renewal
Raising Hope Fox Certain Renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain Renewal
Grimm NBC Certain Renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain Renewal
Revolution NBC Certain Renewal
tvbythenumbers.com
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
tvbythenumbers.com
Private Practice ABC Final SeasonFinished
Gossip Girl CW Final SeasonFinished
Fringe Fox Final SeasonFinished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Kavyn

    I think The CW’s best bet is to completely revamp their Mondays, Tuesdays and Fridays.

    It’s obvious The Originals is going to be picked up and moved to Thursdays at 9pm. Arrow/SPN are likely to stay together. They could try making Fridays the new Monday/Tuesday, moving their more light-hearted shows (HOD, 90210 and TCD) to Friday. The only reason I suggest this is because I doubt the CW wants to premiere a new show on Friday, and none of the old shows will pair well with Nikita.

    Then move Nikita to 9pm on Tuesday (ie the CW’s other deathslot) while putting something new at 8pm (Tuesday as ‘action night’ would be neat). Monday should be filled with two completely new shows. Or you can flip Monday/Tuesday, but since Tuesday at 9pm is a deathslot they’d might as well put Nikita there.

    So then my suggested schedule would be

    Monday:
    8pm – New Show
    9pm – New Show

    Tuesday:
    8pm – New Show
    9pm – Nikita

    Wednesday:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – SPN

    Thursday:
    8pm – TVD
    9pm – New Show (The Originals)

    Friday:
    8pm – HOD
    9pm – 90210/TCD

    And if not, then have Nikita/HOD on Friday and make Tuesday at 9pm a new show as well, even though the two shows have nothing in common aside from their 2 season renewals.

  • Mark Wood

    I have argued that Retention does matter though I also don’t think its a holy grail or anything.

    But my key point, is that with Live Same Day numbers you can’t actually judge retention. As retention would only impact Live Only viewing.

    I actually liked it when a week or two ago, a network executive was talking about retention and how that retention as only something that the worried with for 50% of the audience. The 50% that watch tv live.

    But this is the first year, that I have seen literally zero information on live audience. Which let me tell you sux. As its the single largest part of the revenue generation made by the broadcast.

    And if you are ever thinking about retention, you must remember (and clearly many don’t as I keep seeing post talk about the 8pm hour not having lead in. For the CW the 8pm shows have a lead in typically between .7 and .9 Monday through Friday. And its fairly balanced among the demo, so the a18-34 for the 7:30 I have seen is fairly close.

    So for example Hart of Dixie, Carrie Dairies, and Nikita all show significant drops from their lead in. Around 30 to 40 %.

    On to the CW. People you need to also remember a couple things. Adults 18-34 are really important to the CW. And we already have been shown evidence by Robert or Bill when they used the Glee versus NCIS comparison (when both were getting roughly the same adult 18-49 demo, but Glee was generating far, far greater ad revenue. The difference was basically the percentage difference Glee had in adults 18-34 over NCIS, which was fairly large.

    Also need to remember don’t think about new shows fall numbers, as new shows, almost always start significantly higher, and drop heavy during the fall. Which is nice that the renew cancel index does remove the fall, though I think it is important on judging a returning shows ability to hold its audience.

    Look at Hart of Dixie and B&TB Spring numbers (its harder to judge Carrie as it is new and the CW hasn’t started that many shows mid season scripted to judge how much is a typical decline from its first few episodes, unlike new fall scripted programming).

    But since we don’t have any live only numbers what we have is live same day and live plus 7. Lets look at them versus Beauty & the Beast and Hart of Dixie and how it relates to their lead in. I don’t watch either programming (well besides the pilot for Beauty and the Beast), so I can’t comment about series quality.

    Note: I am using fast National data for one week of Beauty & the Beast for adults 18-34 and w 18-34 as I haven’t yet seen final numbers for those figures. That will probably inflate Beauty & the Beasts numbers ever so slightly as both viewers and adults 18-49 actually dropped with finals.

    Adults 18-49 Spring Results
    Beauty & The Beast .6 average
    Hart of Dixie .56 average

    Actually exceedingly close and since the CW gets data to a a much more specific nature, either could technically be the one with the higher actual number.

    Retention ( I am assuming a .8 average for the 7pm hour, it could be slightly higher or lower).
    Beauty retains 48% of VD adult 18-49 so far this spring
    Hart is retains roughly 70% of its national syndicated lead in.

    For those who state that Beauty & the BEast fans don’t actually watch VD. Please understand you actually don’t know what you are talking about. For the live viewers the CW does get data which tells them what percentage of viewers stick with the channel between shows.

    Adults 18-34
    Beauty & the Beast .52 average
    Hart of Dixie .62 average. Even with averaging Hart of Dixie currently holds the lead.

    Retention
    Beauty retains 39% of VD adult 18-34 ratings
    Hart retains roughly 78% of its national syndicated ratings

    W18-34
    Beauty and the BEast .76 average
    Hart of Dixie .86

    Retention
    Beauty retains 40% of VD average audience in w18-34
    Hart retains roughly 100% of its syndicated lead in

    I can’t stress enough how important 18-34 data is for the CW, though I think they look closer at general adults 18-34 then w 18-34, but both are important.

    Even with Live Plus 7, Hart of Dixie’s is slightly (and this is within the margin or rounding) ahead of Beauty & the BEast.

    Beauty .867
    Hart .9

    And of course the actual commercial ratings for the programs could favor either programming, because their ratings are so very close.

    Even without retention, Hart of Dixie has two years of data, showcasing the stability of the programming, and they know what that show can manage in the 8pm hour.

    If retention is even a small factor (especially in live only numbers), then if the network gets to the point where those two shows are directly competing with one slot, then logically with the data to date, it would have to be Hart of Dixie. Of course we still have about 7 or 8 episodes, and the numbers are very close and could move to further favor Hart of Dixie, or could move to favor Beauty & the Beast.

  • Kavyn

    Sorry, I know I’m contradicting what I said with my schedule, but I don’t think any new pilots are going to work with HOD since none of them appear to be very light-hearted, except for Blink (which is actually kind of ridiculous since it calls itself a ‘light-hearted, quirky drama about a family patriarch in a coma’)

  • JulieDawn

    @Mi

    Yes you saw lots of promotion in NYC and yes it started out well. But the promotion for BATB stopped almost immediately afterward the season started, whereas it continued for Arrow et al.

    I don’t deny there were some quality issues at the beginning, but this has improved dramatically.
    Unfortunately the CW has not offered any help to try and get viewers back to give it another chance.

  • Joe

    If NBC renews The New Normal then they need to renew every other comedy on the network. It’s currently their lowest rated comedy, which is an achievement considering the network…

  • Sam

    @ RockStarz

    I wouldn’t say a renewal of BatB is a slap in the face to TSC fans. There are two slight differences. 1) CBS said they are VERY happy with the way BatB sold internationally something TSC never did. 2) BatB could be a partner to NIkita on Fridays if renewed. Both have strong female lead and although a bit different in style they could work together as both draw a bit of an older audience. TSC would have never worked on Fridays. I also suspect that due to the large cats TSC was more expensive to produce.

  • Mi

    @Kavyn If they pair any of the new pilots with HoD I think it’ll be The Selection, as that pilot sounds like the pilot that’s the least sci-fi out of The Hundred, The Tommorow People, and Oxygen (the pilots that I personally think they’re most likely to pick up along with the Originals.)
    I think HoD should serve as the lead-out of that pilot and be placed at 9PM, as it already has a dedicated fanbase and doesn’t need the support of the national syndicated lead-in.

  • Kavyn

    @Mi Yes, I can agree with that.

  • LeighLee

    Not to play fan excuse Bingo, but I agree with the time slot argument. I really like Beauty and the Beast, but I can never watch it live. It’s up against Grey’s Anatomy and Glee! Whose bright idea was it to stick it in that time slot? It was already bad enough moving Glee to that slot against GA. So I end up having to watch BATB on demand maybe a week later, which doesn’t help ratings. I wish they’d just put it on a different day b/c it’s gotten better through the season. And as a former Smallville fan, I’d hate to lose Kristen Kreuk on my tv screen again.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Robert: Put up a poll. In the poll, ask how many BATB fans are MALE and how many are FEMALE.

    That will explain all the BATB “love” we see here. Very few MEN are going to consider this show “the best show of all time”. All the women like the love story about the girl with the “bad boy”. :-)

    The show is “likely cancellation” and at this point – after the HIDEOUS performance this week by Cat’s sister – not to mention the STUPID behavior of ALL the characters – I have to say I’m now utterly turned off on this show. It needs to be canceled.

    Zero Hour is dead (although I’m still watching as it hasn’t ticked me at all yet), Cult is dead (lots of problems with that show), and Body of Proof WILL be dead within a couple weeks (and there is no possibility of syndication with that show – too few episodes aired.)

  • roger rabbit

    H50:Certain Renewal…big $$$ syndication deal .will last 5 seasons at least..same for Mike & Molly 2BG .Terms Of Engagement = Done!

  • Mark Wood

    Oh and those who think Hart of Dixie couldn’t work with more fantasy based programming, really need to think where shows like Smallville, Buffy and Supernatural started with. IT wasn’t getting paired with other fantasy shows. And that in both cases those shows ratings took off,

    For example Gilmore Girls and Smallville worked great together. Gilmore Girls years later after Smallville moved to THursday, was paired with One Tree Hill, then the next year SPN. And that pairing was better for both shows, then the two female driven shows, were.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Oh, and I think Carried Diaries will be “likely cancellation” before too long, as well.

  • Tangela Johnson

    a lot of haters against BATB seems the show has won a lot of awards and the people has spoken and the spoiler awards were you only vote once per IP address so go figure

  • omabin

    I don’t know why people are assuming that there will be a show on the friday at 9pm timeslot. It has been empty the entire year ever since November, so why would next year be any different? I think the cw would be better of leaving it empty and using the slot to promote their new dramas trough repeats and saving money to launch more new dramas than usual. They have so many promising pilots. I would go with:

    Monday
    The Tomorrow People
    The Hundred

    Tuesday
    The Selection
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita
    Repeats

    For midseason, I would greenlight Oxygen, since it is a show that I think could fit literally anywhere on the schedule (no weird pairing a la Cult and Hart of Dixie). It could replace the lowest performing of the new dramas or, if everything is working really well for them which is not likely, send Hart of Dixie to Fridays and have it replacing it on tuesdays.

  • rehabber

    Beauty and the Beast is much better than Carrie Diaries, and is getting better every ep. Hoping it can turn the season around.

  • Lizzy

    Congratulations to BaTB fans for sinking to a whole new trashy level. Telling people who respectfully dislike the show to fu** themselves, attacking whoever presents plausible reasons as to why the show can really be cancelled and not to mention all the caps lock, overuse of exclamations and juvenile wording.

    Way to go! And beasties think they can talk about bitter TSC fans…

  • debsafan

    Beauty and the Beast is really good. It should be moved to after Arrow or Before. Which ever. Back to Back. They are a lot a like. The Cult, just plain stinks. It wants to be The Following and it’s not even close. Dump the Cult.

  • Fran Amado

    The slot after TVD is certainly not golden. It is going up against rating hogs like Person of Interest, etc. Data from Nielson ratings is more likely to slant more towards those ratings because of the demographic of where these boxes are placed. If ratings were more precise, I think the exec at the CW would be surprised at how much higher the numbers for B&b really are. Unfortunately Nielson ratings only focus on the US and at this time do not take into account social media activity. This tie slot has been problematic for other shows that where in it as well. So to the execs at the CW, why don’t you change the date and time for the CW and give it a chance. It is a fresh and shows potential for growth. Are u just going to cancel it,come up with something else and have to cancel that also? Meanwhile fans all over will just give up getting invested in any of your shows. What is the point.

  • Brandy

    @julieDawn, again, I know how. To use. A space Bar. I do put spaces in between words.
    Second, again, Arrow,VD,CD, and BataB received the most promotion of CW shows whereas Cult,EOMD, GG ,90210,Nikita got/get vety little.Every other commercial this summer and fall and now has been for Arrow,BatB,CD, or VD.

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