ABC: 'Body Of Proof' Is Likely To Be Canceled, But It Has Escaped The Bear Once Before

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.61
Zero Hour :oops: (canceled 3/1) 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.92
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.96
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.49
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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3/1 Update: Zero Hour has been officially canceled. Only the timing was any surprise at all.
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The Cancellation Bear considers the prediction of certain cancellation for Body Of Proof to be his biggest miss of last season*.

Why did it happen? Even in hindsight, the bear's not certain. Was it the three episode ratings recovery at the end of the show's Spring run? Was it the California production tax credit? Nobody who really knows is talking to the bear.

But once burned on a show, the bear's twice shy. Otherwise, the 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week for Body Of Proof would have it predicted as certain to be canceled.

Instead, for now, the bear will make it only likely to be canceled. Stay tuned as the bear keeps his eye on the salmon, er show.

*While the bear piled up 3 misses on CW shows last season, they were all toss-up shows that were noted close calls and the bear's final guesses all went the wrong way. Robert leaned the other way on two of them and only missed one CW prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Shepherd

    I feel safe attributing BOP’s renewal to the $12.1 Million tax credit last season. The only unknown for this season is whether BOP will automatically qualify for an additional 20% credit, or whether it has to re-enter the lottery. This will keep it on my de facto bubble/ toss-up list for the rest of the season barring any drastic chain of events. Otherwise I’d have it as certain to be canceled.

    The only other shows left with any questions on ABC are sitcoms, and I don’t do those, so there isn’t anything more to say. :)

  • Brian

    I posted this question in the wrong thread earlier today (sorry!) but I was under the impression ABC was going to double-up episodes of Happy Endings starting in late February. Did I miss an announcment? ABC didn’t show any episodes of HE last week and they are not showing any episodes tonight. What’s going on?

  • Ted Craig

    @rob60990

    In theory ABC can do better, but that’s not a fact until it happens. The show also maintains its own audience well enough that I think it can survive a move to another night, just not as an on-the-hour show.

    Still, The Neighbors could go either way. Part of it depends on how committed ABC is to becoming the broadcast version of Lifetime. Based on the pilots execs are looking at, I’d say pretty committed. Neighbors doesn’t fit into that model. Of course, that also creates the question, What happens to SHIELD?

  • Fred

    There is a decent chance that 4th place ABC may catch up to 2nd place NBC. FOX is alreay a touch away from NBC right now. Here is what ABC should do next season to help prevent getting into the 4th place position next fall:

    SUN

    AFHV
    OUAT
    SHIELD (Might work well with OUAT)
    NASHVILLE 10:00(has the aura of a Sunday night show)

    MON

    DWTS/BACHELOR (2hr block)
    NEW DRAMA 10:00 (why not nurture a NEW drama)

    TUES

    DWTS/SHARK TANK/THE TASTE (any profitable unscripted show)
    CASTLE (time for Castle to be moved and upgraded))
    NEW DRAMA 10:00 (If Body of Proof is canceled)

    WED

    MIDDLE
    NEW SITCOM
    MODERN FAMILY
    NEW SITCOM (save SUBURGATORY for midseason)
    REVENGE (welcome back home)

    THURS

    GREYS’S ANATOMY
    SCANDAL
    NEW DRAMA (completes a potentialy strong night)

    FRIDAY

    SHARK TANK/THE TASTE
    PRIMETIME
    20/20 (tops off a fairly lucrative night)

    I realize that SUNDAY 9-11 (SHIELD/NASHVILLE) is a risky proposition, but I think SHIELD just might be strong enough to hold up against the NFL, awards shows and The Walking Dead. Also Nashville is a solid drama with a smallish but loyal fan base, I think fans will follow it. ABC needs to make some bold moves to regain the Sudnay night audience.

  • Ultima

    @Ted Craig
    In theory ABC can do better, but that’s not a fact until it happens.

    Fortunately for ABC (and us!), we’ll actually know the answer in April when they move Suburgatory back to that timeslot.

  • Ultima

    @Brian
    I posted this question in the wrong thread earlier today (sorry!) but I was under the impression ABC was going to double-up episodes of Happy Endings starting in late February. Did I miss an announcment? ABC didn’t show any episodes of HE last week and they are not showing any episodes tonight. What’s going on?

    ABC dropped that idea after only a week.

    Happy Endings is now scheduled to air double episodes on Friday after the current comedies finish later this month.

  • Ultima

    @Fred
    There is a decent chance that 4th place ABC may catch up to 2nd place NBC

    There is absolutely no chance that ABC can catch NBC.

    None. Nadda. Zip.

    ABC would need to beat NBC by ~0.6 every week for the rest of the season. They can barely do that now and NBC has The Voice, Revolution and The Apprentice coming back.

  • Ted Craig

    @Ultima,

    Suburgatory will probably do better, but will HTLWYP? I have the feeling it will be a wash.

  • Ultima

    @Ted Craig
    Suburgatory will probably do better, but will HTLWYP? I have the feeling it will be a wash.

    If Suburgatory outperforms The Neighbors in that timeslot, ABC will probably leave it there for next season and premiere a new sitcom at 9:30pm.

    I still think that The Neighbors will be renewed, but there’s very little chance it remains on Wednesdays.

  • joel

    Hey it has had one episode so far this year, lets see what happens. I think if it averages 1.5 and can get back to drawing close to 10 million viewers it will hang around.
    They now have 3 years invested, if it makes it to another year it may get a 5 year run for syndication reasons.

  • mary

    I don’t know, it was the deadest show on TV last year and ABC kept it. They may just want it around for fill in and mid season runs. Good show, but seems like it appeals to an older crowd.

  • Keith

    I think that BOP will again rise once DWTS comes back !!! New cast is great and the show will last !!! Sometimes the bear (and other haters) are too quick to put their 2 cents in !! Some act like their hate full remarks are so important to put out there so they can say I told you so !!! Like we care !! And I really hate the ones who put down a show they don’t even or never even tried to watch!!! Such losers thy are !!!

  • Danny

    Castle is so close to the green…I think when its 100th episode comes a knocking that it’ll be way past the green finally.

  • Fred

    @Ultima,

    If VOICE/REVOLUTION ratings erode just enough (like I expect them to) then perhaps ABC may have a shot. Too many singing contests in one season. As for Revolution, what is that show about again? Fans have a short memory. I for one never missed a Revolution ep, but have very little desire to continue watching. I got into too many other better series since it left the air.

  • JP

    OUAT is still my favorite show on ABC and I believe this season has been great, maybe not as good as last season but stll great. I really like the additions of the new charcters and cannot wait to seehow the Hook/Rumple story arc plays out (two best characters IMO). I think it will be cool to see what other fairytale characters they introduce as well, but I do agree that the MAIN focus needs to be on Regina/Rumple/Snow/Charming.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “They now have 3 years invested, if it makes it to another year it may get a 5 year run for syndication reasons.”

    But those three years will only have produced 42 episodes, less than half way to the current “magic” target of 88 episodes. It’s still two “full” 22 episode seasons away after this season.

    But, as noted, it was renewed last year for reasons unknown to me, and I cannot dismiss that it may again.

  • Fred

    @JP

    Agreed!!

    But I love HOOK (best new character) and CORA as well.
    Worst Character: MULAN. Glad she hasn’t been on recently.

  • Ultima

    @Fred
    If VOICE/REVOLUTION ratings erode just enough (like I expect them to) then perhaps ABC may have a shot.

    You expect them to erode more than 50% from the fall?

    You’re delusional.

  • Jonay

    Shouldn’t Body Of Proof get renewed its in its 3rd season what happened to the Syndication Gods??????????

  • Ray

    Nice art.

    Also, can you hold a place in next year’s Fan Excuse Bingo Card for “No California production tax credit?”

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