ABC: 'Body Of Proof' Is Likely To Be Canceled, But It Has Escaped The Bear Once Before

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.61
Zero Hour :oops: (canceled 3/1) 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.92
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.96
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.49
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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3/1 Update: Zero Hour has been officially canceled. Only the timing was any surprise at all.
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The Cancellation Bear considers the prediction of certain cancellation for Body Of Proof to be his biggest miss of last season*.

Why did it happen? Even in hindsight, the bear's not certain. Was it the three episode ratings recovery at the end of the show's Spring run? Was it the California production tax credit? Nobody who really knows is talking to the bear.

But once burned on a show, the bear's twice shy. Otherwise, the 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week for Body Of Proof would have it predicted as certain to be canceled.

Instead, for now, the bear will make it only likely to be canceled. Stay tuned as the bear keeps his eye on the salmon, er show.

*While the bear piled up 3 misses on CW shows last season, they were all toss-up shows that were noted close calls and the bear's final guesses all went the wrong way. Robert leaned the other way on two of them and only missed one CW prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • omabin

    I don’t know what to think about BoP. Personally, I like the show and would like very much to have it back, but I am not sure it will happen. I don’t see how keep it coming only at midseason would be profitable so we would be talking about going full season again, and I am really not sure of what to expect of that. If ABC really has renewed it for cost purposes, maybe they can stick it to fridays? But if it is pulling a 1.2 against no competition on tuesday, I don’t know what to expect out of fridays…

    I would go with this:

    Sunday (Fall and Spring/ Winter)
    Once Upon a Time/ Winter Wipeout
    DWTS/ The Taste
    DWTS/ Celebrity Wife Swap

    Monday
    DWTS Results Show/ The Bachelor
    Revenge/ The Bachelor
    Castle

    Tuesday
    Shark Tank
    Shield
    New Male Skewing Drama

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    Nashville

    Thursday
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Scandal
    New Female Skewing Drama

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    The Neighbours
    Body of Proof
    20/20

    Another option would be to sent it to the thursdays at 8 wolves. Maybe some of the grey’s crowd would be willing to stick around for it? But the problem with that is that it leaves no room on the schedule for a new female skewing drama which is sure to exist, and I don’t think ABC is willing to sacrifice Nashville for BoP. I am a bit lost here, I don’t know what to do with it.

  • scifi

    I think it’s time to downgrade Once Upon a Time!

  • Fred

    @Ultima

    More like 35% . But ABC has a chance to surge about 15%. The OSCARS promoted some new ABC shows and older ones. Very exciting race.
    Stranger things have happened. Who would have predicted NBC would drop so far, so fast. Maybe ABC can do the reverse.

  • Skylar James

    @scifi: dont be stupid.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I think it’s time to downgrade Once Upon a Time!”

    I think it’s time to check your medication schedule!

  • Shepherd

    @scifi

    Okay, OUAT ‘officially’ downgraded to “probably certain to be renewed”. (that’s 4.9 smiley faces) Happy?

  • Fred

    OUAT is currently one of ABC’s highest rated hours. Scripted or not.

  • zerg

    I doubt that BOP will be revived by a < 2.0 18-49 DWST, the bear is coming.

    Nashville is a certain renewal, maybe ABC hope it will shot up like scandal did.

    MC likely to be cancelled

  • Fred

    @Zerg

    DWTS may rebound. Look at The Bachelor, I never would have thought that show would be doing well at this point.

  • yablans

    ABC has tethered LMS to MC but if they aired a couple of these newer LMS episodes on Wednesday and paired it on Fridays with a show that has more strength than MC, LMS could become a franchise. It airs on Fridays against one hour programs. They lose people that don’t want to watch MC in the second half hour. They have yet to air an episode of LMS alongside an existing show, only unestablished, new shows like Man Up or MC. Considering all that, LMS is a smash hit.

  • Eva

    I scratch my head at people suggesting that ABC move Scandal to the 9:00 hour. It is a very risque show that uses as much latitude as network programming will allow under the 10:00 pm safe harbor with it’s depiction of sex and violent situations. In at least three of the episodes aired this year alone there have been viewer discretion advisories. Putting it at 9:00 would make it a very different show. And not the one it’s audience has become accustomed to.

  • aciel

    i agree eva scandal is definately not a show that should come at and especially after once upon a time which is a family show. scandal and once upon a time dont go together. and revenge has already been moved once i dont think that they will move it again. Hopefully revenges ratings will go back up when it gets back. Im pretty sure it will be renewed if it at least stays in the 1.8-2.1 range.

  • Ted Craig

    @Eva

    Plus 9 o’clock is 8 o’clock Central.

  • eridapo

    The way I see it is everything below LMS will be renewed so that means Zero Hour, HE, BoP, and MC are cancelled… I will also make a bold prediction (no ratings needed here — LOL), ABC will keep Red Widow even though its ratings will not justify it… Red Widow I’m predicting will get a 2.0 for the Premiere this coming Sunday, but it will then fall to a 1.4 to 1.6 on its regular schedule…

  • Frank

    If ABC truly wants to reestablish a 2 hour TGIF, then they could renew LMS, MC and move The Neighbors to Friday as well. Launch one new sitcom within the block. Watch the other three, and discard the weakest link from those after 13 weeks, and then launch another midseason comedy. Repeat at the end of the season, and again at midseason. At least they would have consistent building blocks to work with, without disrupting or having to move shows from other nights to plug holes. I think the TGIF concept could work again, given the right combination of family-friendly shows. It probably would never be the powerhouse it once was, but the comedies seem to be doing just fine for ABC on Fridays…and the night could be much, much worse.

  • AO

    I remain optimistic that Castle‘s TNT & local syndication deals, as well as the ancillary revenue it generates from book and graphic novel sales, will help to ensure it’s renewal (assuming no unexpected crashes).

    Nashville could benefit from it’s music sales, though I’d expect those to weigh little, if at all.

  • Nick

    What ABC should do for the 2013-2014 season:

    Mon-
    8: Dancing With the Stars/The Bachelor
    10: Nashville

    Tue- (Fall & Spring/Winter)
    8: Shark Tank/Winter Wipeout
    9: Dancing With the Stars: Results/The Taste
    10: Revenge/Celebrity Wife Swap

    Wed-
    8: The Middle
    8:30: Suburgatory
    9: Modern Family
    9:30: Keep Calm & Karey On (new)
    10: Birthright (new)

    Thu-
    8: Grey’s Anatomy
    9: Scandal
    10: Betrayal (new)

    Fri-
    8: Last Man Standing
    8:30: How the Hell Am I Normal? [with a new name] (new)
    9: Body of Proof
    10: 20/20

    Sat- (midseason)
    8: Shark Tank (R)/ Winter Wipeout (R)
    9: Castle (R)
    10: Primetime: What Would You Do?

    Sun-
    7: AFHV
    8: Once Upon a Time
    9: SHEILD (new)
    10: Castle

    Midseason- How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life), Winter Wipeout

    ===

    For Body of Proof, I think it could scrape by with a renewal. If its ratings go up when DWTS returns (which will definitely be up, thanks to a good crop of celebs), it could get a renewal thanks to future syndication.

    I am waiting for Richard Steven Hack to start babbling about “just because Nikita got 2 seasons for syndication it doesn’t mean everything else will…” It’s not all about Nikita, bro.
    Body of Proof might get two more seasons because of the syndication success ABC’s had with Castle. They may want to get a foothold in the syndication business.

  • andri

    Never watched body of proof.never will. What is this w /protecting the last man standing the neighbors and malibuwith Nashville and once upon a time declining numbers

  • forg

    Worried for LMS

  • Dakota

    Sunday
    AFHV
    OUAT
    SHIELD (new)
    Revenge

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    DWTS (results)
    Suburgatory
    Super Fun Night (new)
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    The Neighbors
    Modern Family
    Middle Age Rage (new)
    Venice (new)

    Thursday
    Scandal
    Greys
    Betrayal (new)

    Friday
    LMS
    MC
    Shark Tank
    20/20

    NEW mid season shows:
    Big Thunder (hopefully a name change?)
    Mixology
    Doubt
    Lucky 7
    Divorce: A Love Story

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