ABC: 'Body Of Proof' Is Likely To Be Canceled, But It Has Escaped The Bear Once Before

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.61
Zero Hour :oops: (canceled 3/1) 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.92
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.96
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.49
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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3/1 Update: Zero Hour has been officially canceled. Only the timing was any surprise at all.
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The Cancellation Bear considers the prediction of certain cancellation for Body Of Proof to be his biggest miss of last season*.

Why did it happen? Even in hindsight, the bear's not certain. Was it the three episode ratings recovery at the end of the show's Spring run? Was it the California production tax credit? Nobody who really knows is talking to the bear.

But once burned on a show, the bear's twice shy. Otherwise, the 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week for Body Of Proof would have it predicted as certain to be canceled.

Instead, for now, the bear will make it only likely to be canceled. Stay tuned as the bear keeps his eye on the salmon, er show.

*While the bear piled up 3 misses on CW shows last season, they were all toss-up shows that were noted close calls and the bear's final guesses all went the wrong way. Robert leaned the other way on two of them and only missed one CW prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dinaminjo

    Similar schedule:

    SUN:
    OUAT
    new
    Revenge

    MON:
    DWTS
    Nashville

    TUE:
    Results
    Suburgatory
    new comedy
    Scandal

    WED:
    Middle
    new comedy
    Modern Family
    new comedy
    new drama

    THU:
    Castle
    Grey’s
    new drama

    FRI:
    LMS
    Neighbors
    Shark Tank
    20/20

  • scifi

    ABC will think about renewing very expensive OUAT for 2 seasons (because of syndication). And if OUAT does 2.2 now, then it will do 1.8 on the 3rd season. And 1.4 or less on the 4th season.
    I suppose they can just give up now to avoid losses!

  • zerg

    @scifi

    very expensive? source?

    2.2 vs the Grammy’s, it rebound a bit to 2.4 the following week..

    OUAT cancelled means the cancelletion of all shows excluding Scandal,GA,MF..
    so troll away pls

  • Ultima

    @scifi
    And if OUAT does 2.2 now, then it will do 1.8 on the 3rd season. And 1.4 or less on the 4th season.

    That argument is absurd.

    Let’s assume that Once Upon a Time performs similar to how it did last season and maintains it February average for the rest of the season. That would result in a season average of ~2.8. Assuming a similar year-to-year decline next season, that would result in a 2.3 season average (not 1.8!) which will easily be enough for a fourth season renewal.

  • DeanW

    Can you tell me what you think of this ?

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Nashville

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with Stars
    9:00 – Suburgatory
    9:30 – The Neighbors
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Malibu Country
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge
    10:00 – Castle

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Body of Proof will not survive UNLESS someone can prove that overseas sales somehow make it profitable enough to survive on less 1.0 ratings – which on a regular network I have problems believing.

    Because it WILL get less than 1.0 ratings before it ends its season.

    The first two episodes were better than last season’s, but the show still has problems, notably the lead character is still as unlikeable as she was the first two seasons.

    There’s no syndication potential because too few episodes have been aired so far, including this season. There’s no way it makes it to syndication and no reason to try based on the ratings.

    If the studio has offered the show to the network at a low enough rate to enable the network to at least break even including any tax credit and foreign sales, it might have a shot at another season but the ratings will be even lower requiring an even cheaper deal. And why would the studio do that when the shows needs more than two seasons to get close to syndication? I doubt the studio can make the network a deal that satisfies that.

    Remember the studio needs to show revenue up front – or syndication revenue in the back end. The network needs to show revenue up front. I don’t see either coming out of BoP’s ratings and schedule. Rolling the dice for the current season might have made sense – rolling it again for another season makes no sense.

  • aciel

    @scifi
    r u kidding me why in the world would abc cancel OUAT? its really popular and will likely rebound in the next season to a 2.8 or higher. quit saying all of this nonsense if u dont like the show thats fine but no need to troll about it. its the best drama on abc. ouat and a 1.8 rating that show has waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too many fans to get that rating.

  • Fred

    Read an article in TV GUIDE magazine that ABC is working on an OUAT spinoff.
    ABC isn’t giving up on OUAT anytime soon!

  • omabin

    To whoever is suggesting that Once Upon a Time should be downgraded, that is simply nuts. Are you aware that you are talking about one of the top 5 dramas to air in your TV this season? It is only behind Walking Dead, NCSI, Grey’s Anatomy and Revolution. It is one of ABC’s top performers holding up against the freaking grammy awards. ABC is actually planning to add a spin off from the show next season, so Once Upon a Time will not be canceled anytime soon.

  • Fred

    This might work , updated 2013/2014

    SUN

    AFHV
    OUAT
    OUAT spinoff
    NASHVILLE 10:00 (has the aura of a Sunday night show)

    MON

    DWTS/BACHELOR
    SCANDAL 10:00 (should improve on Castles’s #s)

    TUES

    DWTS/SHARK TANK/CELEB WIFE SWAP (anything profitable)
    SHIELD – This could really help the currently weak 9:00 slot and help 10:00.
    NEW DRAMA 10:00

    WEDNESDAY

    MIDDLE
    NEW SITCOM
    MODERN FAMILY
    NEW SITCOM (Suburgatory midseason)
    REVENGE- welcome back home

    THURSDAY

    CASTLE – should perform better than all the recent failures
    GREY’s -Still doing fine despite age.
    NEW DRAMA -Time to allow Grey’s to help a new drama, before it collapses

    FRIDAY

    SHARK TANK
    PRIMETIME/THE TASTE
    20/20 – caps off a lucrative night

  • Devin

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars/The Bachelor
    10:00 – Nashville

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – DWTS Results/The Taste
    9:00 – Castle
    10:00 – Body of Proof/Venice

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – How the Heck am I Normal
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – How To Live With Your Parents…/ Pulling
    10:00 – Betrayal/Doubt

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Shark Tank/Wipeout
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Malibu Country
    9:00 – Suburgatory
    9:30 – The Neighbors
    10:00 – The Returned

    SATURDAY
    8:00 – College Football/20/20(Spring)ABC Movie

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – SHIELD
    10:00 – Revenge

    Bench-Wife Swap, Mixology,Bad Management, Divorce, Gothica, Reckless

  • Fred

    @Devin

    Friday would be much more profitable unscripted. Also where is the 35 year old legendary 20/20?

    Also where is SHIELD? It is the most anticipated new show next season on ANY network.

    An OUAT spinoff is also a possibility next season.

  • Devin

    @ Fred

    20/20 I saved for Sat in the Spring after football. It’s not the show it used to be.

    I have Shield on Sundays

    Saw OUAT spinoff news but it’s still in talk stages and could never make the fall schedule.

  • Jake

    You suggest that LMS is “tethered” to MC and that without being attached to failing series like MC that the show would be a runaway “smash hit.” Anything is possible, I suppose, but here are the season-to-date numbers:

    LMS:
    6.92 Million L+SD viewers; 8.38M L+7
    1.5 L+SD A18-49; 2.1 L+7

    MC:
    6.29 Million L+SD viewers (91% of LMS); 7.54 (90% of LMS)
    1.4 L+SD A18-49 (93% of LMS); 1.8 L+7 (86%)

    Not to mention, LMS leads off the night, so its performance isn’t likely to be affected by that which follows it. Additionally, it would appear by your assessment that both comedies have the potential to become “franchise” hits. I’m not saying one is better than the other, or more deserving of renewal. Just pointing out the numbers.

    RT @yablans:
    Posted February 26, 2013 at 2:14 PM

    ABC has tethered LMS to MC but if they aired a couple of these newer LMS episodes on Wednesday and paired it on Fridays with a show that has more strength than MC, LMS could become a franchise. It airs on Fridays against one hour programs. They lose people that don’t want to watch MC in the second half hour. They have yet to air an episode of LMS alongside an existing show, only unestablished, new shows like Man Up or MC. Considering all that, LMS is a smash hit.

  • Fred

    @Devin

    Sorry I didn’t see 20/20 buried there on Saturday.
    Also, I originaly had SHIELD on Sun, but when I read about the OUAT spinoff I decided to air it there instead. BTW are you sure that the spinoff wont air in time? OUAT was also in the talk stages around this time in 2011 and the pilot aired Fall 2011.

  • omabin

    @Devin,

    The potential spin-off for Once Upon a Time would be for the fall. But I seriously doubt it will happen though, it is a big mess, they would even recast the main character.

  • Devin

    @Fred

    I’m sure anything is possible, but with 12 drama pilots already picked up, casting and starting to film for a the May up fronts, I think it would be pretty aggressive. Also, I’m not sold on a series about the Mad Hatter, but we’ll see!

  • Fred

    I’m such a huge OUAT fan, I’m open to anything these showrunners create.
    Although this season isn’t as enchanting as last, I’m still hooked (no pun intended) Hook is the best new character, by far.
    I remember second season LOST, It wasn’t quite so strong as the first, but it improved in later seasons.
    Hope the same for OUAT and an AMAZING spinoff!!

  • v

    BOP is getting 1.2, it’ll probably get 1.4 with Dancing lead-in.
    All we know is it got a tax credit for filming in California.
    It’s ABC studio produced, and needs 2 more seasons to get to syndication level.

    Cougar Town was the closest comparison and it was cancelled.

  • Yablans

    LMS and MC go against only one hour shows. So if you dont want to watch MC but u like LMS, you are faced with the choice of watching LMS and then tuning in to the second half of an hour show, or just not watching LMS at all. The LMS live+7 numbers are consistently above 2.0. Further, ABC has at times run LMS over into the MC half hour perhaps in order to retain as much of the audience as possible.. Reba is popular, and the show is new. Perhaps it will improve. But LMS is quite strong right now and the following appears to be growing despite the programming strategy.

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