ABC: 'Body Of Proof' Is Likely To Be Canceled, But It Has Escaped The Bear Once Before

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.59
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.61
Zero Hour :oops: (canceled 3/1) 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.69
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.92
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.96
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.99
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.49
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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3/1 Update: Zero Hour has been officially canceled. Only the timing was any surprise at all.
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The Cancellation Bear considers the prediction of certain cancellation for Body Of Proof to be his biggest miss of last season*.

Why did it happen? Even in hindsight, the bear's not certain. Was it the three episode ratings recovery at the end of the show's Spring run? Was it the California production tax credit? Nobody who really knows is talking to the bear.

But once burned on a show, the bear's twice shy. Otherwise, the 1.2 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week for Body Of Proof would have it predicted as certain to be canceled.

Instead, for now, the bear will make it only likely to be canceled. Stay tuned as the bear keeps his eye on the salmon, er show.

*While the bear piled up 3 misses on CW shows last season, they were all toss-up shows that were noted close calls and the bear's final guesses all went the wrong way. Robert leaned the other way on two of them and only missed one CW prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • HAPPY!

    ABC next season

    Monday
    8-The Bachelor (2 seasons a year)
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10-Castle

    Tuesday
    8-DWTS (2 seasons)
    9:30-How to Live With Your Parents (13 episodes)Family Tools(13 episodes)
    10-Revenge

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbours
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-NEW COMEDY
    10-Nashville

    Thursday
    8-DWTS results
    9-Grey’s Anatomy
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Friday
    8-Last Man Standing (24 episodes)
    8:30-Malibu Country (16 episodes)/Suburgatory (13 episodes) Suburgatory is a filler and is easily moveable if another comedy is cancelled.
    9-Shark Tank
    10-20/20

    Sunday (September-December, March-May)
    8-Once Upon a Time
    9-NEW OUAT spin-off
    10-Scandal

    Thoughts?

  • Fred

    @HAPPY!

    Where is THE SHIELD?

  • HAPPY!

    @Fred
    The new drama after Grey’s

  • rob60990

    A OUAT spinoff is so unnecessary.

  • SJ

    I cannot believe how many people have moved Revenge and Grey’s Anatomy in their fantasy schedules for next season. You obviously don’t know the first thing about scheduling.

    Also, premiering the male-skewing Shield on Sunday against football on NBC and animation on Fox is nothing short of idiotic!

    If ABC wants to do a Mad Hatter spin-off without Sebastian Stan, then they obviously don’t know their audience. Stan made that character. Without him, it’s not worth going forward with the project. They should wait until next year when he’s available and see if Once is still doing well enough in the ratings to justify a spin-off and then reassess the situation. But personally, I agree with Rob. A spin-off is really unnecessary.

  • Ultima

    @Yablans
    LMS and MC go against only one hour shows. So if you dont want to watch MC but u like LMS, you are faced with the choice of watching LMS and then tuning in to the second half of an hour show

    Have you ever heard of cable?

  • scifi

    “Read an article in TV GUIDE magazine that ABC is working on an OUAT spinoff.
    ABC isn’t giving up on OUAT anytime soon!”

    They can cancel OUAT and start spinoff to replace it. By the way, good idea for ABC…

  • Ultima

    @SJ
    You obviously don’t know the first thing about scheduling.

    But moving everything is sure to improve ratings! ;)

  • Ultima

    @Devin
    20/20 I saved for Sat in the Spring after football. It’s not the show it used to be.

    It’s the #2 newsmagazine after 60 Minutes, which is what it has always been.

  • Devin

    @Devin
    20/20 I saved for Sat in the Spring after football. It’s not the show it used to be.
    @Ultima
    It’s the #2 news magazine after 60 Minutes, which is what it has always been.

    Yes, but it doesn’t pull in near the viewers it used to and their is no real star power in the hosts anymore. I think ABC could do better than a 1.,5 5.5 mil viewers on a Friday night, but they will probably never move it.

  • David Howell

    Let’s play fantasy scheduling seeing as everyone else is.
    MON: 8 Batchelor/DWTS/Batchelorette (one cycle of each in the season), 10 new drama
    TUE: 8 new drama (with midseason hiatus for DWTS results), 9 Suburgatory, 9:30 new comedy, 10 new drama
    WED: 8 The Middle, 8:30 The Neighbors, 9 MF, 9:30 new comedy, 10 Nashville
    THU: 8 Primetime Nightline, 9 Grey’s, 10 Scandal
    FRI: 8 LMS, 8:30 new comedy, 9 Shark Tank, 10 20/20
    SUN: 7 AFHV, 8 OUAT, 9 new drama, 10 Revenge
    On the bench: Castle (so that they have an established procedural to plug in out of the gate without giving BoP another undeserved renewal), Wipeout, two new sitcoms.

    Shield might be the Monday drama. It certainly wouldn’t be the Sunday one, that’s the space for counterprogramming against the male-skewing powerhouses of NFL and Seth Macfarlane. The best soapy serial from ABC’s pilot season should go there. Tuesday 10 could be a procedural; ABC need one, 10pm is a good slot for a show that’ll get an older audience, and CBS can’t find a leadout for NCIS LA. Unless it’s NCIS Red…

    You could keep Revenge at 9, but Sunday 10pm hasn’t worked as a launchpad for ABC. And Thursday 8pm really, really hasn’t, so I’d give up on trying and plonk Nightline there rather than in the thick of the winning Friday schedule. The last five hours of ABC’s weeknight schedule are doing far too well to be changed beyond finding a new show for the second half of TGIF.

  • David Howell

    Actually the Tuesday hours should be swapped thinking about it. 9pm has tougher comedy competition (NG) , 8pm tougher drama competition (NCIS).

  • Fred

    @Happy

    I don’t like SHIELD on Thurs 10:00 after Grey’s. Would probably work better earlier.

    An Alice in Wonderland inspired spinoff of OUAT might work. ABC needs to take risks like this to get out of 4th place. In addition NBC has a similar project in the works. Last year ABC was considering a Beauty and the Beast drama same time as CW. So we will soon see what will come of this.

  • Charmed

    So is Nashville still likely to come back after the 1.6?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    v: “BOP is getting 1.2, it’ll probably get 1.4 with Dancing lead-in.”

    That is likely to be offset by the drop in real viewers (i.e., people who want to tune in to it as opposed to lead-in.) At best it might retain its 1.2. It might go up temporarily after Dancing starts, but it will continue to drop until it hits 1.0 or below. So it’s a wash any way one looks at it. A season three would do even worse and still not make syndication feasible.

    “needs 2 more seasons to get to syndication level.”

    Actually it needs MORE than 2 more seasons. It will not even match two seasons of episodes at end of this season. It will only have aired 42 episodes at end of season THREE. It needs another 46 episodes to reach 88. And it’s unlikely to get a 22-episode order after this season. See where this is going?

    Season-to-season, Body of Proof is down by 45% in the demo (vs a 2.2 rating) and down by 28% in viewership (vs 9.41 million). How’s it going to look in season four – half that again?

    Show is utterly doomed. If they renewed it due to a tax credit making it profitable, it was still a dumb decision. But even assuming it’s profitable this year, it won’t be by next season – which is what we’re concerned about here.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    That should be “a season four would do even worse…”

  • carol

    I like BoP and the new people that have signed on….Neighbors is a good show I would watch whatever day it ends up on…..I really WANTED to like Zero Hour but it has fallen flat with me, can’t really put my finger on as to why either; the idea is good, maybe they just didn’t cast the right group.
    As usual though CASTLE is my favorite show…it is such a fun interesting ride each week.

  • HAPPY!

    @Fred
    Ok, here is an updated idea for a schedule

    Monday
    8-The Bachelor (2 seasons a year)
    9:30-NEW COMEDY (13 episodes with option to order full season)
    10-Castle

    Tuesday
    8-DWTS (2 seasons a year) (sometimes 2 hour episodes air)
    9:30-Suburgatory (20 episodes)
    10-NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8-The Middle
    8:30-The Neighbours
    9-Modern Family
    9:30-NEW COMEDY (13 episodes with option to order full season)
    10-Nashville

    Thursday
    8-Grey’s Anatomy
    9-NEW DRAMA-S.H.I.E.L.D.
    10-Scandal

    Friday
    8-DWTS results (risky move, but no other place to put it)
    9-Shark Tank
    10-20/20

    Sunday (September-December, March-May)
    8-Once Upon a Time
    9-NEW OUAT spin-off or another new, compatible show with OUAT
    10-Revenge

    Hold for Midseason:
    Last Man Standing-18 episodes
    Malibu Country-13 episodes
    How to Live With Your Parents-9 or 13 episodes depending on how well it does this year
    Family Tools-9 or 13 episodes depending on how well it does this year

    Thoughts on this schedule compared to my other one?

  • Judy912

    @Carol…..As usual though CASTLE is my favorite show…it is such a fun interesting ride each week.

    I am with you @Carol…..Castle has grown to become my favorite TV series and I only just began watching the series September 2012. Love the humor Nathan Fillion brings to his character on the series and the stories are entertaining.

  • jj

    BoP is a good show. It is just in a bad slot. It has zero lead in and people that watch those earlier show are not likely the same audience that watch BoP.

    I wish Once will go away.

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