CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled No Matter What Happens With 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
Vegas :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.03
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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With the premiere tonight of CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy, it seems well timed to take a closer look at the hopeful comments in the vein of "If Golden Boy fails, X will be saved".

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 473rd time.

  • CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.
  • Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and one of The Good Wife, The Mentalist or Golden Boy.
While the most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:
  • You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another Spring drama.
  • You think CBS might air Undercover Boss at 8pm Friday next Fall? Cancel another Spring drama.
  • You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Elijah

    Most likely the younger generation just doest understand a show like vegas

  • mary stuman

    you people are crazy – loved Vegas

  • thesnowleopard

    While I’m disgusted in principle with the idea of anybody stupid enough to consider 1960 to be ancient history, I don’t think that’s Vegas’ problem. What demos we see of it are bad. The audience is pretty good, but the demos…yikes. And you can say it’s because only old people want to watch shows about 1960, but that doesn’t really explain a show like Arrow, which has a similar problem on a smaller scale (albeit with healthier relative demos).

    It’s rather unfortunate that the networks can’t figure out how to make older audience pay. Yes, I know all about the marketing theory, but these guys try to monetize everything. At some point, with such a huge aging population out there and a shrinking live audience, they’re going to have to figure this one out such as to make that post-49 demo pay out better. But it’s not going to be this year and it’s probably not going to help Vegas.

  • Angela Schwall

    We cannot believe they are canceling Vegas…Can you please explain? Can we request to keep this program on the air? Thanks!

  • Angela Schwall

    We also love The Good Wife and The Mentalist…How can we support these shows?

  • spycomics

    @thesnowleopard Very well said, and I agree with everything, but I hope there’s someone out there in CBS land with some pull to buck the “business as usual, this is how its always done, the numbers don’t lie” mantra and keep a quality show like Vegas.
    @mon I know what an audience is. In stating Vegas’ case for cancellation, its just been decided by many that the “audience” the show brings doesn’t matter. I say it does. Read @thesnowleopard!

  • DW

    you have to look at the logistics of shows. you cant get rid of a low rated show that the net owns and keep a over 100 ep. show you dont own. the mentalist is going. it has its 100 episodes and if TNT loves TM so much give it a 13 ep pick up. you put POI in that slot because it does well in a tough time slot.

  • Holly

    @spycomics,

    I hope there’s someone out there in CBS land with some pull to buck the “business as usual, this is how its always done, the numbers don’t lie” mantra and keep a quality show like Vegas.

    So you’re hoping someone is willing to throw away millions of dollars because you happen to like a low-rated show?

  • Carrie

    @catsrule: “I like Vegas a lot better than their other new drama Elementary, dropped it after the pilot.”

    Wow. You judged the show based on the pilot alone and then gave up? Ouch, I pity you. I can tell you right now — you are missing out, because the show DEFINITELY got much better.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Holly

    Yeah, I think we can agree that’s probably not going to happen.

    Note that I keep saying “probably” because Vegas isn’t canceled yet and I hate to call things beforehand. We do get surprises every year. If Vegas is somehow giving somebody value somewhere, then it could come back. But the signs we have access to don’t look good.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Carrie
    Why not? Pilots are designed to be judged that way. Either they hook people or they don’t. Obviously, Elementary’s pilot didn’t reel in catsrule. He/she doesn’t have to waste any more precious time on this earth watching something he/she doesn’t like. No cause for pity or censure at all.

  • martinesque

    @Omabin You would put all things NCIS on Tuesday? Ick. No offense, but I think that’s overkill. Variety is the spice of life, man. Maybe match one of those NCIS shows with something similar in genre, but not all NCIS.

    And why would you put Elementary on Friday at 9? I honestly don’t think it deserves that kind of ‘damnation’, lol. Perhaps another weekday slot, if not Thursday (although I personally think it’s fine on Thursday since it’s still strong enough), but not fall-down-the-hole-Friday.

  • JacobYates

    How does a show like Vegas with an older audience not take advantage of that? A show could advertise products that target older people. Why is the 18-49 demo so important. Is it once you’re past 49 then your life expectancy is too short for TV? Or are you not as dumb as you were when you were 18-49 and are now too smart to buy the lies they feed the younger audience?

    That said, I’ll still hold out for a summer renewal. Also, here are some scenarios that could give Vegas a second season. Let me know what you think and how plausible you think they are.

    The NCIS pilot is not picked up. Golden Boy tanks. TGW or Mentalist collapse. (ALL of these must happen)
    CBS cancels a drama that no one saw coming. (Due to contracts or a similar issue)
    Vegas experiences a rebound that pushes it ahead of TGW or Mentalist.
    CBS renews it for a 13 episode season to air in the summer.
    Vegas is moved to Fridays and maintains its ratings, causing CBS to cut it some slack.

    I am aware that asking for any of these to happen is like asking the U.S. to cut spending, so don’t call me delusional. I am aware that any of the above situations are extremely unlikely.

  • Carrie

    @thesnowleopard: Sure, sure, sure. And it’s also my opinion that the show has gotten better, and therefore, I personally pity him/her for not giving it another chance. Naturally just exercising my right to comment and say that, yes?

  • DJ

    it looks like the Mentalist is ending early this season after only 22 episodes this year on April 28th(avoiding the May rush this year). In the past, do shows ending a couple episodes early correlate with them being cancelled? I know CSI: Miami last year got axed ending in February and this site projects the same with CSI: NY but is the fact the Mentalist is ending earlier this year by a few weeks something that should be considered a potentially bad sign or nothing at all?

  • Sue

    Why is CBS canceling “Vegas”–it is one of the best new shows this year. I do not understand–whoever makes the choices to cancel or keep programs is a little crazy!!!!

  • Mk

    It appears that both The Mentalist and The Good Wife are ending on April 28th. They both have 22 episodes. That is from the Futon Critic.

  • jett69

    I am upset about the Vegas reviews, I watch it because i love to see Mia Rizzo!

  • Kim

    Cancel rules of engagement ,two and half men, and how I met your mother and Hawaii five O they bore me to tears along with Elemntary and mentalist. Please I like Vegas and Dennis Quaid.

  • Elijah

    If a cable network picked up Vegas and it got mid to high 1s in the 18-49, than it would be a huge success. Most of the stuff on FX gets like a .2 and everyone calls those shows mega hits.

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