CBS: 'Vegas' Is Certain To Be Canceled No Matter What Happens With 'Golden Boy'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
Vegas :oops: 0.57
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.68
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.78
Partners* canceled 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.81
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.83
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.03
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.07

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With the premiere tonight of CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy, it seems well timed to take a closer look at the hopeful comments in the vein of "If Golden Boy fails, X will be saved".

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 473rd time.

  • CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.
  • Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and one of The Good Wife, The Mentalist or Golden Boy.
While the most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:
  • You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another Spring drama.
  • You think CBS might air Undercover Boss at 8pm Friday next Fall? Cancel another Spring drama.
  • You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ben

    The headline states that it makes no difference what happens to Golden Boy, however if it were up to me, (and it is not), I would save Vegas and cancel Golden Boy. Vegas is much better than Golden Boy and I think Golden Boy is on the fast track towards cancellation.
    The ratings for Vegas are Lousy, which is too bad, because it’s a good show.
    CBS cancelled Rob, which had decent ratings, so I doubt if Vegas will be renewed, which is unfortunate, but, that’s the economic business of television.

  • Rob R

    Is it actually true that “Hawaii Five O”‘s ratings have now fallen below that of the cancelled “Partners”??? If yes, then why isnt H5O on the bubble??

  • gerry

    soooo many random posters that don’t seem to know how tv works. reading through this thread actually made my head hurt a bit.

    its also important to not that being over 49 doesn’t mean you don’t have worth. you just don’t have worth as far as advertising goes. from a marketing standpoint, by the time someone ages out of the 18-49 demo, their brand loyalty is in place and advertising won’t change that. so companies would rather aim their dollars at a younger segment that isn’t so committed.

  • JacobYates

    @Rob R
    H50 is one season from syndication.

  • bluejays

    No way will CBS move POI to Sunday as some have suggested. It’s not going to happen. They might move an ageing drama that’s doing well like CSI or even maybe, Criminal Minds there to try to improve that slot.

    HFO is likely to go to Friday’s (and might live a few years there if it can pull Blue Bloods type numbers but will likely have a reduced effects and guest stars budget).

    Vegas and Rules are goners and I think The Mentalist is too.

    Then CBS really need to do something big to fix Mondays because those numbers are getting bad and will likely be much worse when The Voice comes back. They should move Men back there for a last year or two.

  • del

    Thank-you Gerry for stating so clearly why advertisers focus on the 18-49 demo – still seems speculative that over 50 is so committed to brand loyalty (would love to see if recent studies have been undertaken to substantiate this as each generation of humans will evolve differently) My mother (50+) still watches commercials on tv & more shockingly actually inquiries about products she has seen advertised. I fall into the 18-49 demo & have barely watched a single commercial in the last 7 years (thank-you PVR) I am way, way more brand loyal than all of her peers in her age group.

  • del

    Just thinking about this further – The focus on age demographic profiling specificly for televsision dates back to 1971. PVR’s, Tivo’s, Itunes downloads & Netflix are more mainstream in the last say 4 years. By rational interpretation, as the ‘elderly’ don’t like change (suffering brand
    fixation) they will likely therefore not embrace new technological changes either. These ‘technologies’ allowing viewers to bypasses, at will, the old format of tv commercials. With this in mind, advertisers have an even greater problem of actually reaching the 18-49 technology consumed demo while ignoring the – – golden fly on their nose – – 10.9 million commerical watching Vegas viewers. There is very likely a genius at CBS who has figured out how to have his cake & eat it too !

  • Keyser

    I love Vegas and Elementary but if one had to go I guess I’d have to say goodbye to Vegas as I’m a Sherlock Holmes fan.

    Still can’t buy into people who say it’s the BBC Sherlock or nothing. Give me a break. I’ve read the Conan Doyle canon of stories at least 6-7 times each over the last couple decades and watched the Rathbone/Bruce movies many times each and think Elementary is superb. Jonny Lee Miller steals every scene he’s in. The pilot I was really iffy on but the second episode had me. I never go by just the pilot alone. I usually give it three shows. When they did the 12th show that introduced the name of Moriarty I was all in. It’s been a superb show of late and now that Watson has become his partner, it should be great storywise going on. While I love the BBC Sherlock as well, we don’t get that much of it, though they are starting production next month on the third series of movies with Cumberbatch and Freeman. Those won’t air till late fall or winter I assume so until then Elementary is a great show for my Sherlock fix. But if I was hoidy toidy like these others pretend to be I’d still tell you that Jeremy Brett was still the BEST.

  • The End

    @bluejays

    People are wanting Person of Interest moved to Sunday? The heck? That’s hilarious in how ridiculously stupid that suggestion is lol.

    The show will stay on its current day for the duration of the shows life on the network.

  • Van

    I agree, Dorothy; Great show…I leave my TV on CBS all evening on tuesdays. It would be a shame to cancel it. Sure hope Quaid can rally his fans! :-)

  • Elijah

    CBS better hope those 9 million+ viewers don’t start a mass boycott if Vegas does get cancelled.

  • scarps

    What about CSI: NY? Who thinks this will come back for a 10th season?

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Del –
    “I fall into the 18-49 demo & have barely watched a single commercial in the last 7 years”

    And that is part of the problem. Brand loyalty is only part of the issue. The BIG reason the 18-49 demo is so valuable is because they are so scarse. They are busy folks out partying, working late, taking care of the kids, etc… It is VERY hard to consistantly get their viewership. So, shows that can deliver higher amounts of LIVE 18-49 viewers (not DVR or On Line because they skip the commercials) are in high demand. High demand = high advertising dollars.

  • JacobYates

    @holly
    “They have no need to kill for Vegas.

    I am not saying they will or should go after it, but I know they would rather have Vegas than Deception or Smash. My point was that Vegas would be a good show to have on NBC’s current lineup, but will languish on CBS praying for a summer pickup.

  • Dan

    I could see Hawaii 5-0 moving to Sundays at 10 and Elementary moving to Mondays at 10, CSI moving to Fridays at 9, therefore CBS can premiere new dramas Tuesday at 10 (NCIS LA spinoff), Wednesday at 10 and Thursdays at 10. In this case CSI NY and Vegas are dead and with Hawaii 5-0 airing at 10 on Sundays its likely CBS will keep only one of Mentalist and Good Wife to air Sundays at 9, likely Good Wife.

    Maybe instead of airing Undercover Boss Fridays at 8, if BS doesnt want to expand comedy to Thursdays at 9, they could air 2 comedies Fridays at 8? UB could air midseason and CBS could take advantage of the slot. This may not be likely but if CBS expands comedy to 9, they would have to move Person of Interest to another slot.

  • Elijah

    You have to remember, despite the fact that all these “old people” that watch Vegas are supposedly “useless”
    These so called “old people” are wise and very knowledgable, and have tons of experience. Not only will they boycott, but they will tell all the “young cool trendy” people in the 18-34 and 18-49 demos to boycott as well. And young people listen to their elders, so even if young people don’t watch Vegas, they will listen to their elders and start boycotting too, thus lowering the ratings of some of their other hit shows that do extremely well in the 18-49 demos.

    So if CBS cancels Vegas, it’s going to have a very bad effect on the whole network. I’ve already seen lots of old people telling young people to start boycotting, and they have, which is probably why a lot of their shows are starting to do worse and worse in the demos.

  • Elijah

    Just the other day my grandparents told my older sister to start boycotting CBS. My older sister is 24, and is EXACTLY right in that demo that CBS is craving. She watches lots of CBS shows, but not Vegas. The only reason my grandparents told her to start boycotting is because they’re going to cancel Vegas.

    Now CBS just lost a valuable viewer in their very valuable demo that they want.

    CBS is really underestimating these so called “useless worthless garbage old people viewers”

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Elijah

    First of all – it’s not CBS. The ADVERTISERS are the ones who care about the 18-49 demo. The AD rates are set according to the 18-49 demo and since ADs are how Television makes it’s money they understandibly go where the money is. NBC and ABC do the exact same thing. Look, it sucks but TV is a business plain and simple.

    Second – “And young people listen to their elders..” LOL!! Oh, I get it now. You are just joking around. And if by some chance you aren’t joking, then I would like to know what the weather is like in the world where you come from.

  • brady

    vegas is one of the better shows on tv will hate to see it go

  • Jim

    TO HELL WITH THE HATERS!!! RENEW CSI NEW YORK!!!

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