CW: ‘Cult’ Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between ‘Beauty & The Beast,’ ‘Hart Of Dixie’ & ‘The Carrie Diaries’?
Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|90210||:cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28)||0.50|
|Emily Owens, M.D.*||canceled||0.54|
|Gossip Girl*||final season complete||0.61|
|Nikita (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.62|
|The Carrie Diaries||:| :| :|||0.79|
|Hart Of Dixie||:| :| :|||0.83|
|Beauty And The Beast||:| :| :|||0.89|
2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult’s 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.
The more interesting question that the cancellation bear gets all the time is “How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?” (Ok, those are the bear’s words, but the gist is there.)
While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.
It’s reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).
In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they’re airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.
Looking at the predictions above, Cult’s gone, 90210’s probably gone, then every other show is safe!
Not so fast.
What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.
What if the CW starts America’s Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.
Get the picture?
Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there’s plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the “old” Fall predictions in the table.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.