CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • mat

    sabroso a todos XD

  • Ashley

    I think 90210 is gone. There is just no justification for keeping it on any longer with the type of ratings it’s getting. A repeat would do better.

    I think Hart of Dixie is safe because of the Nikita rule. If Nikita got a 3rd season (plus the obvious 4th), then I think HoD is strong enough as well.

    That leaves BatB and TCD, and I just can’t see the CW renewing both of them with the lackluster ratings they are getting. Why keep such dead weight?

    I’m thinking the CW might consider the Originals a self-promoting entity (via VD) and greenlight both that AND three other ones, making a technical 4 new dramas in Fall

  • Bfleet

    Arrow, Supernatural, Vampire Diaries all renewed already, right?

  • alexjones

    how is cult certain to be cancelled and not 90210, since that’s getting even lower ratings than cult.

  • Just Desserts

    Typo: Arrow, Supernatural, and The Vampire Diaries are already renewed!

  • Dinaminjo

    HoD renewed
    BatB renewed friday
    CD gone

  • Julia

    alexjones: Thats because 90210 is in it’s fifth season, Cult has just started

  • Dillan

    If its between TCD and BATB, TCD will be renewed over it.

  • KT

    PLEASE renew HoD! Only show I watch on the CW, but it’s one of my favorites out of all the network shows I watch!

  • hammard

    So it really does come down to Carrie Diaries vs Beauty and The Beast by the looks of it (HoD is safe enough for syndication purposes).
    The thing is I can’t see them cancelling both. Neither is doing well and probably wouldn’t last another 13 episodes but I can’t see them wanting to launch a completely new night. Unless they try to move Arrow or Supernatural to Mondays they’ve got a blank day.
    I really can’t call it. B&TB does do better but would it do even worse without the VD lead-in (a slot almost certain to go to The Originals next year). Socialite teen dramas appear to be dying out (they have no others on the slate I believe) but do they really want to overload on genre shows?
    I cannot call it.

  • Schadenfreude

    Good riddance to “Cult”; the pilot was so badly written and acted it was painful to watch.

  • Brandy

    Personally, I think Cult,CD ,and BatB will be cancelled.90210 might be too, I don’t know.CD has two 0.4 & Nikita’s the only show been renewed with those ratings in early seasaons solely for syndication and CD is too far away from that and every other freshman show at 0.4 has been cancelled plus it’s only get a little over a million viewers and the spring ratings drop still to come.BaTB has terrible ratings/retention after VD and I don’t see it being renewed to push to Fri for it to get 0.2-0.3& be cancelled in season two and its too far away from syndication.

  • Greg

    Hart of Dixie is safe. It’s steady at a 0.5-0.6. The battle is just between Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries, and if one of those two MUST be renewed, I think it will be The Carrie Diaries, which has a chance of growing next season with the word of mouth. Beauty and the Beast is never going to succeed without a strong lead in.

  • Ashley

    @hammard

    I think the smartest thing they could do would be to launch a whole new day. The Hundred and Tomorrow People would be a perfect match for a new sci-fi night. They just need to brand it, like they did with Wednesday nights (their only successful night)

  • Win

    HoD and BatB rate about the same. Hart is a little higher if they factor in live + 7. I agree with several things. They aren’t going to just leave certain nights to the wolves and BatB would crash without a lead in. More and more I;m thinking BatB survives and is thrown behind hart wherever she lands next year. Harts loyal demo could provide a stable lead in and give Batb a mediocre, yet stable demo number.

  • Spence

    90210, Beauty and the Beast and Cult will be cancelled
    Nikita, Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries will be renewed

  • Win

    also @Bill it’s “Hart” not “Heart”
    Much love though!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “also @Bill it’s “Hart” not “Heart””

    AAARRRGGGHHHH!

    Thanks, fixed.

  • Reven8ger

    90210 => canceled (0,5millions is a shame, even for the cw)
    Carrie Diaries => canceled (with 1,3millions for the beginning of it’s first season, what the show will be doing next year? below 1million for sure)
    The Beauty & The Beast => canceled (with a powerful lead-in which is TVD, TB&TB can’t even do better then the half of it’s lead-in: 0,5 for TB&TB and 1,3 for TVD. With such a strong lead-in, those mediocre score are terrible, and the show must be canceled)
    Hart of Dixie => renewed (the show is steady as hell. It doesn’t have any lead-in, and must count on herself to do good ratings on a Tuesday night (one of the most difficult day of the week). So, yeah, it should have a third season (last season, maybe, but still it deserves having a new/last season).

    Nikita, TVD, Arrow and SPN renewed, with HOD. So, 5shows renewed, it gives 3new time-slots for the Fall, and with all the pilot who has been ordered (and who seems to be very interesting, because the network seems to want to escape from it last image of teenage network with GG and 90210, etc.). So, with some new project like Arrow this year, if the CW make good choices and cancel the show who are not able to do good ratings for their first season, the network will be able to progress next year. I hope.

  • halloween

    they will renew two bubble shows
    hart of dixie is one of them
    its between BatB and TCD…but their ratings are awful and TCD does not fit with cw new direction but could be paired with Hod for a low rated Josh Schwartz night

    bring back ringer and secret circle :) lol

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