CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy and Herpderp: Please note that “international sales” and “syndication revenue” are two different things. I suspect that while the former may give indications as to the potential for the latter, they don’t determine it.

    Both of those things also merely help determine what the studio producing the show can offer to the network.

    Syndication is probably the higher revenue generator because it is the “gift that keeps on giving” for years whereas international revenue is generated only during first run.

    So if a show has next to zero change of making it to syndication because the ratings are poor in its first season, syndication potential is not going to help it. This is the case with BATB and TCD. Both are or will be – in the case of BATB – doing cancellation numbers by end of their first seasons. There is no motivation for the studio to make a deal with the network because it would have to take a loss on THREE seasons, not two.

    If that were not the case, EVERY show would be offered to networks for peanuts regardless of ratings. That’s just not happening in the real world. It requires TWO seasons of reasonable ratings and a legitimate potential for syndication in the eyes of the studio for the studio to offer a low rate to the network.

    BATB and TCD simply do not match those requirements.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    So to recap:

    As it stands now, the ONLY LOW-rated CW show with a shot at being renewed (besides Nikita) is Hart of Dixie. Its season two average is .6, it’s stable and a third season will give it a shot at syndication.

    I say that 90210, Cult, TCD and BATB will all be canceled. BATB, however, may not be clearly canceled until the spring effect hits and its ratings drops to the .4-.5 range. I don’t see that show improving its ratings over its remaining episodes and I don’t see it retaining its current season average either.

    Nikita, Arrow, Supernatural and TVD are the only shows that will survive this season.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    And to quote Bill: “Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there’s plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.”

    Agreed.

  • starship

    @Richard Steven Hack

    You keep saying how international sales and syndication only matter to the studio and the network doesn’t care, which would be true for most other networks, but not for the CW. Most of their shows are produced by either CBS or the WB and they own the network, so at the end of the day, they are the ones calling the shots. BATB as far as I’m aware is produced by CBS studios, so if it retains a 0.5 – 0.6 for the rest of the season or the network needs some filler for the Fall schedule (very likely since they probably don’t have the resources to launch more than 3 new shows), BATB stands the best chance (after Nikita, HoD, and 90210) at a 13 episode season renewal.

  • Angellica .T.

    u should pretty please renew the secret circle it can stand on its own u see all the things going on about it online. you should give it a chance give it an 8 time slot and see how it does.

  • Chris2.0

    CW PLEASE GET RID OF BEAUTY AND THE BEAST! — The whole show is embarassing, the dialogue is pathetic, the acting sucks, and the storylines are going nowhere. Poor excuse of a show. GET RID OF IT!

  • Restless

    Angellica T, you do know this website doesn’t control what shows get renewed and canceled, don’t you? This website is not the CW network. It doesn’t have anything to do with them; no insider information, no one from here works there, no one from here can renew the Secret Circle and those who could renew the show probably don’t read these comments.
    You’re wasting your time and just making yourself and other Secret Circle fans look silly.

    Email your comments to the CW; won’t do much good but you might as well be talking to the correct brick wall.

  • Dude

    You also have to factor in their development season. In 2010 it was really weak so only Hellcats and Nikita were picked up but last year, they had a relatively strong development season and picked up five new shows. This season seems just as strong. The Originals and The Tomorrow People are almost certain to be picked up. Oxygen also looks like a likely contender and The Selection/Company Town could also sneak by. If they pick up another five dramas (holding two for midseason) then they still need to cancel one drama to make room on their line-up. My guess is that drama will be The Carrie Diaries unless Hart of Dixie is cancelled for the sole reason that The CW doesn’t want to drag its corpse to syndication.

  • Verus

    I think the Carrie Diaries will be canned also since it got slightly worse numbers than borth Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast but who knows for sure these days.

  • Charmed

    @RSH Your obsession with getting TCD cancelled is quite frightening.

  • herpderp

    @Richard Steven Hack

    You misquoted me. I never said ” If one of 90210 and Beauty and the Beast goes then its BATB. CW would rather invest in a final wrap up season for 90210?

    I stated the exact opposite. BATB has a better chance of renewal over 90210.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: I couldn’t care less about TCD. Its ratings suck. That’s just a fact.

    Herpderp: I was responding to both you and Brandy on the international sales issue. Nothing I said was a quote from you or related to you except the sales issue.

    starship: “You keep saying how international sales and syndication only matter to the studio and the network doesn’t care, which would be true for most other networks, but not for the CW. Most of their shows are produced by either CBS or the WB and they own the network”

    And as I’ve said before, the network is a separate financial entity. They have to make a profit and CBS and WB get that profit. But the CW has to make a profit first. CBS and WB do NOT get international sales revenue DIRECTLY – the CW does. They get SYNDICATION revenue directly which the CW does not.

    Syndication revenue as I’ve said is probably much higher than first run international sales revenue because syndication revenue can run for YEARS longer than first run – especially for a show that’s dying in its first run.

    So the only way BATB can survive is if the international sales actually make it PROFITABLE to the CW and that will ONLY happen if CBS decides the show has syndication potential – which is highly unlikely given the poor ratings in season one and the likelihood of even poorer ratings in season two.

    Like I said, if the opposite were true, ALL shows would be run to four seasons!

    If as is claimed, BATB DOES bring in enough international sales revenue to make the show profitable at its current ratings – which I doubt because ad revenue is usually much higher than international sales revenue – then the question remains will it be profitable when the ratings drop – as they are almost certain to do.

    It is possible that international sales revenue TIP BATB over into being profitable. But it’s not the primary revenue generator for the show and that’s what counts in the end.

    “BATB as far as I’m aware is produced by CBS studios, so if it retains a 0.5 – 0.6 for the rest of the season”

    It’s not going to do that. It’s going to get hit by Daylight Savings Time like every other show and drop to .3-.4 in the next month. It might even drop sooner because the show is getting worse every week. As I said, it’s season average at the end of its run is likely to be much lower than its current .65.

    “or the network needs some filler for the Fall schedule (very likely since they probably don’t have the resources to launch more than 3 new shows)”

    This is what I’m contesting. I believe the CW will cancel FOUR shows this season – 90210, Cult and TCD AND BATB. There’s just NO reason to invest in BATB when the show has done MISERABLY the entire first season and will only do worse in a second season. The network and the studio will be bleeding money long before it gets to a third season for syndication.

    “BATB stands the best chance (after Nikita, HoD, and 90210) at a 13 episode season renewal.”

    Now, maybe, based on its current .65 season average. By end of its run, I don’t think so.

  • Charmed

    @RSH You keep going on about BATB being huge worldwide, but here in the UK barely anyone knows about it and I don’t even think it’s available on iTunes.

  • Charmed

    Actually it is on iTunes but doesn’t sell very well.

  • herpderp

    @Richard Steven Hack

    If the parent studios are satisfied with the money the show is making, then that’s all there is to it. The CW plays by different rules. Proof: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/446733-How_The_CW_Stays_Undead.php

    Now the article is a few years outdated, but still applies today. The only difference is, the network is in the black now due to online deals with Hulu and Netflix. That’s the profit for the network itself. Everything else is funded by CBS Studios and Warner Bros Televison. They call the shots.

  • Charmed

    What are the pros and cons of renewing 90210? I would say –

    Pros- Another season means another DVD, more episodes for Netflix and Hulu, more episodes for syndication, possible final season buzz

    Cons- Possibly stealing the renewal of a new show, unless it gets moved to Friday, extremely low ratings

  • Tom

    The pros and cons of renewing 90210:

    Pros: AnnaLynne McCord

    Cons: Everything else

  • Dillan

    “Charmed: @RSH Your obsession with getting TCD cancelled is quite frightening.”

    lol, I agree.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “@RSH You keep going on about BATB being huge worldwide, but here in the UK barely anyone knows about it and I don’t even think it’s available on iTunes”

    Sigh…I have NEVER said anything about BATB “being huge worldwide”. Try to read what I SAY, not what you THINK I said.

    The FANS say that. I’m merely referencing ANY international sales that MAY exist. I have no idea if it does. Someone posted a link saying the show gets $1.5 million an episode from international sales. I have no idea if that’s true or whether it significantly affects the show’s profitability. I’m merely saying that it’s unlikely to affect its renewal chances.

  • Brandy

    RSH, I wasnt meaning to say international sales and syndication are the same thing.I know theyre not.I shouldve been clear and said Nikita was renewed due to strong international sales in Asia, where CW will try to syndicate it next season.

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