Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Cult |  |
0.44 |
| 90210 |  (canceled 2/28) |
0.50 |
| Emily Owens, M.D.* | canceled | 0.54 |
| Gossip Girl* | final season complete | 0.61 |
| Nikita (F) |  |
0.62 |
| The Carrie Diaries |  |
0.79 |
| Hart Of Dixie | |
0.83 |
| Beauty And The Beast | |
0.89 |
| Supernatural | renewed | 1.38 |
| Arrow | renewed | 1.51 |
| Vampire Diaries | renewed | 1.83 |
-
2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
-
Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.
The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)
While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.
It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).
In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.
Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!
Not so fast.
What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.
What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.
Get the picture?
Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
-
- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
“Charmed: @RSH Your obsession with getting TCD cancelled is quite frightening.”
lol, I agree.
Charmed: “@RSH You keep going on about BATB being huge worldwide, but here in the UK barely anyone knows about it and I don’t even think it’s available on iTunes”
Sigh…I have NEVER said anything about BATB “being huge worldwide”. Try to read what I SAY, not what you THINK I said.
The FANS say that. I’m merely referencing ANY international sales that MAY exist. I have no idea if it does. Someone posted a link saying the show gets $1.5 million an episode from international sales. I have no idea if that’s true or whether it significantly affects the show’s profitability. I’m merely saying that it’s unlikely to affect its renewal chances.
RSH, I wasnt meaning to say international sales and syndication are the same thing.I know theyre not.I shouldve been clear and said Nikita was renewed due to strong international sales in Asia, where CW will try to syndicate it next season.
Terpderp: First of all, that article WAS from three years ago. The network has sunk DRAMATICALLY in that time frame.
Second, all of that was “spin” and projection like everything else network execs say.
That said, this quote from the piece really says it all:
“The actual network’s red ink is just part of the picture, according to CBS and Warner Bros. executives who say that despite the losses on the network level, the profitable programming assets created by the venture overall are a big win.”
When they talk about “programming assets”, they’re talking about syndication. Yes, they also derive revenue from multiple other sources. But syndication is the big win, as I said, because it runs for years, not just once. Hulu, Netflix and the rest of “digital” are miniscule in revenue at this point compared to first run ad revenue and syndication revenue. They may help TIP the network into profitability but if the ad revenue and syndication revenue go down, those revenue sources are NOT going to save the network.
And the ad revenue IS going down. And the syndication revenue depends on shows making good enough ratings to get to season three.
None of the LOW-rated shows on the CW this season are doing that. NONE (except HoD – and of course Nikita.)
Brandy: “I shouldve been clear and said Nikita was renewed due to strong international sales in Asia”
No. Nikita was renewed because of strong SYNDICATION POTENTIAL in Asia. That potential MIGHT have been determined by its international sales in Asia but it is the SYNDICATION potential, NOT the current international sales that matter.
“where CW will try to syndicate it next season.”
I don’t know if you made a mistake here by accident and meant to say WB, but the CW is not syndicating anything. WB is syndicating Nikita.
Dillan: What part of “.51 season average for TCD after seven first season episodes” don’t you get?
Seriously? You think this show has a shot at renewal? If so, you’re delusional.
90210 cancelled! This means better prospects for HoD, B&TB and TCD
http://tvline.com/2013/02/28/90210-cancelled-by-the-cw/
I KNEW 90210 wasn’t going to be given a farewell season like some people were predicting. Ratings were far too low, even hitting numbers lower than Gossip Girl last year when it was given a final season.
Good riddance! The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast are likely the next to go at the end of the season. Hart of Dixie will be safe for another season.
@iMember
TCD and B&TB prospects are worse than HoD, sure, but considering the CW will cancel Cult and has already cancelled 90210 and Emily Owens there is space for the typical three drama orders they usually ask for, so now there stands a reason to keep TCD and B&TB in the bubble. HoD should be a safe bet by now.
I think the show that’s in most peril right now is TCD, considering that it has gone as low as 0.4, but it still could bounce back (it even hit a 0.7 once) and so we’re still to see what happens. B&TB could still be cancelled, but I can see it being renewed and paired with Nikita on Fridays (unless Cult pulls a miracles and rise on Fridays, which I doubt, and then TCD would be canceled and B&TB would be put on Mondays, probably)
Didn’t I tell everyone? Of course. This was exactly as I said would happen. Now that 90210 is canceled, BATB is safe, and The CW will order a CBS-produced pilot to series to replace it.
TCD and Cult will be canceled as well. BATB and HoD will be renewed.
90210 was cancelled today, it’s not getting a final shortened season.
“TCD and Cult will be canceled as well. BATB and HoD will be renewed.”
That’s what my guess is too. We’ll see what happens, but I’d guess that to be the case as well in the end.
Well with 90210 cancelled, I am going to guess TCD is next to go. I have to wonder if young kids prefer seeing kids with cell phones, texting, tweeting and the like to want to watch them. Maybe young kids don’t do nostalgia. I don’t know, it is curious how the young crowd did not take to this. I am not commenting on the quality of the show. I really thought TCD would do better. I am a little surprised.
I think they will move/renew BATB and renew HOD. Hard year for the CW. I think TVD with The Originals would be a good Thursday for them.
Were123
Emily Owens and Cult tale up one hour on the CW, with 90210 gone. That’s two slots that the CW will want filled. They can cancell more, and still keep Friday as a run off night.
We all expected this to happen but it’s still sad to always hear a show gets cancelled, regardless of personal preference. It’s still a business and a lot of people now will have to find new jobs.
With 90210′s cancellation and the impending one for Cult, I’d be really happy if Nikita, TCD, HOD and even BATB all get renewed. It won’t happen for obvious reasons (unless a miracle happens) and either one or two more shows could get cancelled.
Please Justin don’t feel bad about these people having to find new jobs as they made more money than you ever will.
CW order 5 shows this past year, i’m guessing they will do the same this year.
With Originals slam dunk for Thursday, that leaves Mon/Tues and midseason Fri.
I’d guess theres only room for 1 of the 3 bubble shows, HOD gets since its closer to syndication. If it continues to flop, it will just move to Friday like Nikita.
I think B&TB and TCD is next….I cant call HoD though….shows is hard to call.
@ Justin…most of the cast were tired of the show and wanted out anyways, no big loss to them. The show had a great run….
Yeah Dave, I think your guess about TCD is right. I know for a fact there are a cache of old Gossip Girl fans who claimed they wouldn’t watch TCD because it was by the same production company as Gossip Girl, and despite liking how Gossip Girl’s S6/series finale ended overall, they still hate the direction the show took with some of the characters from the end of S4 and through S5, when its executive producer that season was Josh Safran. (The same Safran who’s now the executive producer of Smash…and we all know how ‘well’ that show is performing. lol
)
Those girls also said that they were too young and had never watched SATC during its original run, so the retro 80s storylines don’t really appeal to them, and original SATC fans are ‘too old’ for the teen storylines.
I’ve watched both shows so far and liked both, although personally I think I preferred GG over TCD because the young actors were stronger and the storylines were grittier/less apologetic, GG’s S1 & 2 vs TCD’s* S1.
(*TBH TCD’s Katie Findley aka ‘Maggie’ is very comparable acting & characterwise to how Leighton Meester’s ‘Blair Waldorf’ was during Gossip Girl’s S1, however without a strong male actor/character like Ed Westwick’s ‘Chuck Bass’ was to Leighton’s ‘Blair,’ to bounce lines & chemistry off of…TCD just isn’t on the same level.)
ALSO…after watching thew old 80s sitcom Square Pegs, which starred SJP when she was a teenager, I could more easily see how her (albeit geeky) character that show could have been the original inspiration for Candace Bushnell’s back story for Carrie Bradshaw, than the character on this new show is, despite the difference in fashion. (Plus the real 1980s vs the faux 80s thing too.)